Bitcoin education, advisory and analytics.
United States
Joined October 2021
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Update: the MVRV Z-score has climbed from the zero line in February to ~1.1. The bottom is in the rearview — the expansion phase is underway. #bitcoin
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“One of my expectations for this bull market is that we will see Bitcoin become an increasingly normal part of a typical portfolio. I believe we will see meaningful growth in passive flows that DCA on every paycheck, and this is early evidence of that trend.” - From @_Checkmatey_ latest substack
Bitcoin's sell-side risk ratio measures the profit and loss investors are realizing, relative to the entire amount of money invested in #bitcoin. It's sitting on its low-realization floor, holders are barely selling, in profit or in panic. Good for upward continuation.
Bear markets are dominated by realized loss and bull markets with realized profit. Profit is being realized again…. #bitcoin
The good news is that #bitcoin is approaching and beginning the process of bottoming out, with this, comes an opportunity to purchase bitcoin at deep and historic value, in which it is has been priced this low for less than 15% of the time. The bad news is it could go a little lower and it could take some time to reset. Either way, if you were looking to add bitcoin anywhere from $125,000 to today, you are getting a lot more for your money.
MVRV for #bitcoin has recovered to 1.6 from the 1.1 capitulation lows of July. It remains well inside the historical accumulation zone under 2.0. Healthy, not euphoric.
Any sellers that were left, are now gone. All #bitcoin needed was a catalyst. It came today with the treasury buybacks, a lighter version of government intervention, but that’s all it needed. Onward.
The Bitcoin Advisory ∞/21M ⚡️ retweeted
Saving for a house is a defining event for many young adults.
Over the past ten years:
- If you've saved for a single family home (SFH) in US dollars, then the prices have increased by 78%.
- If you've saved for a SFH in #gold, then the prices have decreased by -41%.
- If you've saved for a SFH in #bitcoin, then the prices have decreased -98%.
How you save over the long-run is critical.... Choose wisely.
Bitcoin is one of the most interesting and captivating of subjects, but you have to do the work to get why it’s so important.
You have to learn about money and what properties truly give it value as an asset and media of exchange.
You have to understand the broad foundations of code, cryptography and proof of work to see how secure it is.
You have to study history, to learn the role that so many monies have played in the rise and fall of empires and states and the amazing repetition in which they do fail.
You have to be an observer of human psychology and behavior to build comfort in the volatility of an emerging new global monetary system.
It can be done one day at a time. It’s fulfilling to learn and you can learn about so much just trying to figure out one thing, #bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Advisory ∞/21M ⚡️ retweeted
bitcoin is much closer to the end of its bear market than the beginning. ETFs are puking their brains out on top of treasury company selling, who's been buying?
while long term holders now hold record supply, btc has traded into lower bound of on-chain valuation methodologies.
The big picture for #bitcoin is being forgotten. History, human psychology and behavior remains the main arbiter or source of information to predict the future of bitcoin. It’s takes a long time for a new foundation of society to take form and there are always periods of time along the way that look like the old ways will remain in place. Forms of money have a 100% rate of being replaced, simply because humanity cannot keep their desire for expansion and resulting devaluation at bay. Time is too vast to help the masses truly understand, but all the tailwinds and headwinds for Bitcoin remain, in a way that has been for all money across time. Bitcoin is a structural and long term money. Patience and #HODL.
The Bitcoin Advisory ∞/21M ⚡️ retweeted
Bitcoin looks cheap.
If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we're looking at $160k, and that's just catching up to where equities already are.
The Bitcoin Advisory ∞/21M ⚡️ retweeted
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 White House Executive Director says there will be a "big announcmentvin the next few" weeks regarding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve 👀
January 1st vs. Today:
Going to need to let this play out. The coins that are bring sold out of fear from above and below need to be gobbled up by those who see #bitcoin at value prices and being to now overwhelm any selling.
It is so much easier and less stressful to tell others to buy here vs. above $100,000. At least there is that.
This is a significant write up by @_Checkmatey_ . If you have that feeling of uncertainty and fear, this will help reset on where things are. Maybe a little more down is needed but all the “easy work” for the bears is now done. Read and reset.
open.substack.com/pub/checko…
Some perspective…at $101,300…only 6.11% of the total market cap of #bitcoin is in loss. That is less than the other dips of 9.5% - 10.5% this cycle.
