“If you're not willing to react with equanimity to a market price decline of 50%, you're not fit to be a common shareholder.”
— Charlie Munger
Hey @grok , are we witnessing a stock market crash right now?
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The list looks good in hindsight.
Most stocks that fell 60-80% in 2022 didn’t make new highs. The ones that did usually had something structural still working. The Buffett quote is true, but it doesn’t replace the work of figuring out which ones are actually worth being patient with.
Warren Buffett said: "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient."
These 6 stocks crashed, then made new all-time highs:
1. Nvidia
$NVDA
Fell 66% by October 2022
Up 1,741% since the bottom!
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Magnificent 7 stocks crash after Democrats win control of both the House and Senate. Meta
$META : -3.13% Tesla
$TSLA : -8.89% Apple
$AAPL : -0.73% Nvidia
$NVDA : -6.50% Amazon
$AMZN : -2.24% Google
$GOOGL : -1.44% Microsoft
$MSFT : -2.19%
Over $2.3 trillion has been wiped out of the US stock market today.
Most people are still using AI the old way.
Ask a question. Get an answer. Move on.
Elon put it more bluntly in a recent conversation:
“They ask a question, read the answer, and that’s it, right? That’s such a waste.”
He suggested something closer to running a small team instead. One AI sets the plan, another assigns the work, and a group of agents actually execute it. Humans stay on top for goals and final decisions.
That framing changed how I look at stocks.
I don’t ask AI what to buy. I use it to pressure-test the process. What happens to this name if the 10-year moves back above 5%? Where is the downside concentrated if AI spending slows? Which assumptions in the thesis are actually fragile?
The tool doesn’t give me the answer. It just makes weak process harder to hide.
Duan Yongping is showing off again
Berkshire hits a new historical high
A-Duan's famous quote from before: If you don't understand US stocks, just buy half S&P and half $BRK.B
He's finally getting a rare chance to breathe easy and feel proud lately
President Trump: “You know what? Bottom line, it's gonna all work out. You know why? It always does”
Elon Musk: “It always works out”
Blackwell retweeted
Agreed that classical chart-based futures trading is speculation, not investing.
But “no social benefit” understates the role. Speculators provide the liquidity that lets commercial hedgers transfer risk efficiently. Without that, price discovery and risk management in commodities would be worse for producers and consumers alike.
The real line is edge + process vs. no edge. You have the former.
Agreed that classical chart-based futures trading is speculation, not investing.
But “no social benefit” understates the role. Speculators provide the liquidity that lets commercial hedgers transfer risk efficiently. Without that, price discovery and risk management in commodities would be worse for producers and consumers alike.
The real line is edge + process vs. no edge. You have the former.
Blackwell retweeted
I am often asked if I consider my job as a commodity trader to be a form of investing.
My answer:
Absolutely NOT. Market speculation is pure gambling. Fellow traders, let's not try to put the pig (gambling) into a pink dress
We are gamblers. Our jobs were of no social benefit
A lot of people treat Buffett like some kind of financial savant who can scan a balance sheet and instantly know what something’s worth. But the more I’ve looked into what he actually did during the 2008 crisis, the more it seems like his real edge wasn’t IQ. It was temperament.
He’s said a hundred times that you don’t need a genius level brain to invest well. You just need the right disposition. That sounds like classic Buffett humblebragging until you sit with it. Everybody knows you’re supposed to read the filings. Everybody knows you should make your own call. Everybody knows you shouldn’t panic just because the market is melting down.
The problem is there’s a massive gap between knowing that and actually doing it. Human nature wants to act. It wants to feel involved. It’s extremely hard to sit there while Lehman and AIG are calling, the market’s getting worse by the day, and everyone else is scrambling, and still just open the 10-K, go through it page by page, mark up the red flags, and then calmly say no.
Most people in that environment get hit from both sides: their own emotions and the pressure coming from everyone around them. Even if you know the rational move is to stay disciplined, watching other people rush in while you do nothing creates a feeling of isolation that’s tough to handle. For regular people, staying clear headed in a real crisis usually means fighting your own instincts the whole time.
What makes Buffett different is that for him, it probably doesn’t even feel like discipline. Turning down Lehman and AIG doesn’t register as missing out. The fact that everyone else is moving doesn’t create anxiety. He’s just the kind of person who wants to finish the document before he decides. That state matches his natural wiring.
This gets at something most people overlook in investing: psychological cost. If the approach you’re using keeps fighting your actual personality, it doesn’t matter how logically sound it is. You won’t stick with it. You’ll be in constant internal friction, and eventually something will give.
That’s why temperament is a real gift. If you’re trying to learn from Buffett, don’t just copy the visible moves, reading the filings, making the notes, saying no. Figure out your own baseline. If you’re naturally reactive and you try to force yourself to stay detached during a crisis the way he does, you’ll probably crack the first time things actually get ugly. If you’re naturally cautious but you start chasing whatever everyone else is buying just to keep up, the stress will keep you up at night.
The people who last usually aren’t the ones who look the most like Buffett. They’re the ones who found a way of operating that doesn’t constantly fight who they are.
Blackwell retweeted
A few weeks before he died, Charlie Munger was asked about the richest man in the world.
He said he didn’t really consider Elon Musk that rich.
In the clip, the 99-year-old explains it simply:
“I don’t regard Elon Musk as truly that rich because I don’t think it’s sure that everything he’s working on can work.”
He thought a fortune that size almost always has a lot of luck in it. Musk picked the right things to double down on, then kept borrowing against them.
“He’s used leverage so much that he’s doubled down right to the edge of extinction, maybe two or three times.”
Munger’s own approach was straightforward:
“I never bet against him and I never bet with him.”
He said the rest of his life worked better treating Musk as if he didn’t exist.
I still prefer that kind of discipline over trying to guess who wins the next big narrative.
A few weeks before he died, Charlie Munger was asked about the richest man in the world.
He said he didn’t really consider Elon Musk that rich.
In the clip, the 99-year-old explains it simply:
“I don’t regard Elon Musk as truly that rich because I don’t think it’s sure that everything he’s working on can work.”
He thought a fortune that size almost always has a lot of luck in it. Musk picked the right things to double down on, then kept borrowing against them.
“He’s used leverage so much that he’s doubled down right to the edge of extinction, maybe two or three times.”
Munger’s own approach was straightforward:
“I never bet against him and I never bet with him.”
He said the rest of his life worked better treating Musk as if he didn’t exist.
I still prefer that kind of discipline over trying to guess who wins the next big narrative.
Warren Buffett just issued the most serious warning of his career.
The man is 95 years old. He's lived through every major crisis of the last 60 years.
He just said:
"We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now."
He called the stock market "a church with a casino attached."
Berkshire is now sitting on nearly $400 billion in cash. The largest cash pile any company has ever held.
This is the same man who raised cash before 2008.
The same man who told everyone to be greedy when others are fearful.
He's not greedy right now. He's the most cautious he's ever been.
The man who built one of the greatest fortunes in history is telling you the market has become a casino.
Most people will ignore him. A few will listen.
History usually rewards the few.
I don't know when the turn comes. Nobody does.
But I'd rather be early than caught off guard.
JUST NOW: About $900,000,000,000 added to U.S. stock market value as stocks surge at the FIRST post-midterm U.S. market open.
The market has spoken. The massive post-election REVERSAL is gaining momentum.
🟢 S&P 500 +1.14% (+86.51)
🟢 Dow +1.93% (+997.76)
🟢 Nasdaq +1.07% (+271.36)
Wall Street shakes off overnight losses following Democrats' sweep of Congress.
Democrats won the House and Senate, setting up divided government for Trump's remaining term.
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