Breaking Pocket

🔄 BREAKINGPOCKET UPDATE: Russia and Ukraine agree their largest prisoner swap — the first concrete result from Abu Dhabi The two days of US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi ended Wednesday with one concrete outcome: Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle to the largest prisoner exchange of the war. What is agreed, and what is not: • The swap numbers are to be finalised on Thursday; Russian officials said the exchange could exceed 1,000 people and could happen within two to three weeks • Both delegation heads — Russia's Vladimir Medinsky and Ukraine's Rustem Umerov — confirmed the planned exchange, and US envoy Jared Kushner called it the biggest humanitarian release of the war • There is NO ceasefire and NO agreement on territory or security guarantees — US mediators said differences remain on the major issues, and the talks were the first direct round in nine months • Kushner and fellow US envoy Steve Witkoff travel to Moscow on Thursday to meet President Putin, then on to meet President Zelenskyy MARKET IMPACT: Oil took the talks as a small step down in supply risk. Brent futures fell $1.14, or 1.2%, to $91.62 a barrel in early Thursday trade in Asia, and US crude fell $1.04 to $85.49 — a modest move, not a collapse, with traders noting the Strait of Hormuz risk has not gone away. WHY IT MATTERS: A prisoner swap alone does not end a war or cut anyone's fuel bill. But it is the first agreed outcome after nine months without talks — and any path that eventually eases the energy disruption behind today's oil price is the same path that eases pressure on fuel, inflation and borrowing costs. 👀 WATCH: Thursday's final swap numbers and the Moscow meeting, and the delayed US oil inventory report at noon ET on Thursday. Source: Reuters; Associated Press; Agence France-Presse.

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT: Wall Street closes higher — CoreWeave's surge revives the AI trade, gold slips below $4,000 US stocks finished Wednesday firmly higher, as CoreWeave's results eased the AI-spending worries that had knocked the market around all week. The close: • S&P 500 rose 1.31% to 7,619.38 • Nasdaq Composite gained 1.60% to 25,466.19 • Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.49% to 52,486.49 • CoreWeave surged 24.7% to $60.77 — its results and raised outlook pulled the whole AI chain higher • Nvidia recovered 2.9% to $173.73 after two straight days of sharp losses; technology was the strongest sector • The VIX fear gauge fell for a fourth straight session, to around 17.5 Around the markets: the dollar stayed firm (index near 102.9), gold slipped below $4,000 to about $3,992 an ounce, Brent crude held near $92 a barrel and US crude near $86. Canada's TSX rose with energy and tech, up about 250 points in late-morning trading. The US bond market was closed for Veterans Day, so there was no fresh Treasury signal on the December rate-hike debate — and the weekly US oil inventory report is delayed to Thursday noon ET for the same reason. WHY IT MATTERS: One strong AI report was enough to flip the week's mood — but the rally ran without the bond market's vote. With December hike odds still live after Tuesday's hot inflation print, Thursday's reopening of Treasury trading is the real test of whether stocks and rates can move together. 👀 WATCH: Thursday — Treasury yields on the bond market's return, the delayed EIA oil inventory report at noon ET, Nebius earnings before the open, and Cisco and Applied Materials after the close, ahead of Friday's US producer prices. Source: Reuters closing report; index and closing prices per Yahoo Finance market data; CoreWeave close per Finnhub.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: CGI profit jumps 21% and the dividend rises — a Canadian tech heavyweight's quiet beat CGI, the Montreal-based IT services giant, closed its fiscal 2026 with a stronger fourth quarter: • Revenue rose 3.3% to C$4.15 billion (up 2.5% in constant currency) — a touch light against the roughly C$4.25 billion the street expected • Net earnings rose 20.8% to C$460.7 million; diluted EPS jumped 30.2% to C$2.24, and adjusted diluted EPS rose 8.5% to C$2.31, just above the C$2.30 consensus • Quarterly bookings were C$4.5 billion — a book-to-bill of 109% — and the backlog stands at about C$32.1 billion, helped by US federal work • The board raised the quarterly dividend 8.8% to C$0.185 a share, payable December 18 to shareholders of record November 27 • Full-year revenue reached C$16.57 billion, up 4.2% MARKET IMPACT: Investors focused on the soft revenue line rather than the profit beat — CGI shares were down about 1.7% in New York trading early Wednesday afternoon, even on a day the wider tech sector rallied hard. WHY IT MATTERS: CGI is one of Canada's largest technology employers and a core TSX holding. Government and corporate IT spending holding up — with bookings running ahead of revenue — is a useful read on whether the AI-era services economy is still growing underneath the chip headlines. 👀 WATCH: whether the return to organic growth management described on the call carries into fiscal 2027 guidance, and if the revenue line re-accelerates. Source: CGI fourth-quarter and fiscal 2026 results release (company announcement via PR Newswire); CGI earnings call summary; Finnhub market data.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: OPEC+ oil output jumped in October — supply is coming back faster than demand OPEC's monthly oil market report, released Wednesday, shows the producer group is pumping close to pre-Iran-war levels again: • Crude production by the OPEC+ (Declaration of Cooperation) countries rose 2.04 million barrels a day in October to about 41.23 million barrels a day, led by Saudi Arabia — despite continued disruption to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz • Demand, by contrast, is barely growing this year: OPEC kept its 2026 world oil demand growth forecast unchanged at about 0.2 million barrels a day, after cutting it for six straight months • Its 2027 demand growth forecast was also left unchanged at about 2.6 million barrels a day • The OPEC Reference Basket price averaged $112.12 a barrel in October, up $1.53 on the month • OECD commercial oil inventories fell 14.6 million barrels in September to 2,811 million — stockpiles are still being drawn down • OPEC nudged its 2026 global economic growth forecast up slightly, to 3.1% MARKET IMPACT: Brent crude traded near $92 a barrel on Wednesday, holding most of this week's fall. The report's message cuts both ways: returning supply argues for lower prices over time, but thin demand growth this year and still-falling inventories say the market is not loose yet. WHY IT MATTERS: Oil is the channel through which this war reaches household budgets — fuel, freight and the inflation prints that are now pushing central banks toward more rate hikes. Supply recovering toward pre-war rates is the single biggest force that could relieve that pressure in 2027. 👀 WATCH: the IEA's monthly report for the other side of the demand argument, and whether Hormuz shipping actually normalises — production only helps if the barrels can move. Source: OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, November 2026 (primary release); Maritime Professional report on the release.

🔄 BREAKINGPOCKET UPDATE: The morning bounce became a real rally by midday — and the Nasdaq has now erased its post-election losses An update to this morning's open snapshot: the AI-led rebound kept building through the midday session on Wednesday. The midday board: • Nasdaq Composite up about 2.2% early this afternoon (Seeking Alpha, 1:41 PM ET), with the Nasdaq-100 up about 3% — both now back above where they stood before the midterm-election slide • S&P 500 up 1.50% to 7,633.90 at 12:47 PM ET, extending the morning's gain • The Dow lagged, roughly flat to slightly higher — this is a technology rally, not a broad one • Small caps joined in: the Russell 2000 was up 0.99% at midday • The VIX fear gauge fell for a fourth straight session, to 18.48 this morning The engine is the same one from the open: CoreWeave's results last night eased fears that AI spending is running ahead of demand, and chip and AI-infrastructure names carried the session. All of this happened with the US bond market closed for Veterans Day — there was no fresh Treasury signal to argue with the move. WHY IT MATTERS: One day after a hot inflation print pushed rate-hike bets higher, stock investors are choosing the earnings story over the rates story. That split — bonds pricing more hikes, stocks pricing more AI profit — cannot hold forever; one side eventually gives. 👀 WATCH: whether the rally holds into the close, and Thursday's jobless claims plus Friday's producer prices — the next two inflation-side tests. Source: Seeking Alpha market report (1:41 PM ET); dpa-AFX via TradingView; Reuters (morning session and VIX). Intraday figures, not closing values.

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👀 POCKET WATCH: Russia and Ukraine are talking again — and the agenda is energy and shipping Russian and Ukrainian officials are in a second day of US-brokered talks in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday — their first direct negotiations since February. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the first day "constructive and quite substantive." Wednesday's sessions are due to focus on de-escalation steps, including possible ceasefires covering energy infrastructure and the Black Sea, which would protect food exports. US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are leading the American side. The honest caveat: the two sides remain far apart on the core questions — territory and security guarantees — and no agreement has been announced. This is a process restarting, not a deal. WHY IT MATTERS: This war reaches your pocket through prices, not headlines. An energy ceasefire would ease pressure on oil and gas; a Black Sea truce would steady grain shipments and food prices. Even the possibility of either is why energy traders are watching Abu Dhabi alongside the week's inflation news. 👀 WATCH: any joint statement out of today's sessions, and whether energy or Black Sea language makes it into one. Source: Bloomberg reporting on the Abu Dhabi talks; Reuters reporting via Business Day.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: Tata Power posts a record quarter — profit jumps across every business line Tata Power, one of India's largest power utilities, reported second-quarter (Q2 FY27) results on Wednesday evening in India, after the market close: • Profit attributable to shareholders rose about 49% from a year earlier to ₹1,366 crore • Total profit, including minority partners, rose 33% to a record ₹1,652 crore • Revenue from operations rose 26% to ₹19,636 crore • First-half profit rose 22% to ₹3,053 crore The company said the growth was driven by strong performance across all its business clusters — generation, transmission and distribution, and its growing solar and renewables businesses. The quarter also included a one-off gain of about ₹317 crore from Tata Projects no longer being counted as an associate. MARKET IMPACT: The results landed after the NSE close — Tata Power shares had ended the day around ₹360 — so the verdict comes at Thursday's open. WHY IT MATTERS: Tata Power is a bellwether for India's electricity build-out. Record profits at the country's big utilities, powered by renewables growth, are the corporate side of the same story households see in rising power demand — and they set the tone for the rest of India's energy earnings season. 👀 WATCH: Thursday's share reaction, and management commentary on the solar manufacturing and rooftop businesses. Source: Tata Power Q2 FY27 exchange filing and company statement, via PTI reporting in The Hindu BusinessLine; Mercom India.

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT: Wall Street opens higher — the AI trade bounces a day after the inflation shock US stocks opened higher on Wednesday, after CoreWeave's strong third-quarter results let investors look past fears that AI spending has run too far: • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +0.05% to 52,259.02 • S&P 500: +0.97% to 7,593.95 • Nasdaq Composite: +1.54% to 25,451.05 CoreWeave jumped more than 15% in premarket trading after saying it expects to turn profitable on an adjusted basis in the first half of 2028, and Nvidia rose 3.7% premarket after shedding about $430 billion of market value over the previous two sessions. The backdrop has not changed: Tuesday's hot October inflation print has traders treating a December Fed rate hike as a near-certainty, with about an 11.5% chance priced on a larger half-point move (CME FedWatch). The US bond market is closed today for Veterans Day, so there is no cash Treasury signal until Thursday. WHY IT MATTERS: Today is a sentiment bounce, not a change in the rate story. Stocks can rally on AI earnings while borrowing costs stay headed up — both things are true at once, and the second one is what reaches mortgages and loans. 👀 WATCH: whether the open's gains hold into the close, and Thursday's double test — the bond market reopening and Nebius earnings before the bell. Source: Reuters (Wednesday opening prints and premarket reporting); CME FedWatch pricing via Reuters.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: Barrick is splitting itself in two — its North American gold business is heading to the New York Stock Exchange Barrick Mining filed a registration statement (Form S-1) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Tuesday to take its North American gold business public as a new company, American Barrick Gold, under the ticker ABGC. What goes into the new company: • Barrick's 61.5% stake in Nevada Gold Mines, its joint venture with Newmont — 81% of Barrick's 2025 attributable production • A 60% stake in the Pueblo Viejo mine in the Dominican Republic • About 2 million ounces of annual production at roughly $1,800 an ounce in all-in sustaining costs, with a 20-year reserve life • Book equity of $20.8 billion, against Barrick's total market value of about $65 billion The new company expects to pay an annual base dividend of $1.25 billion, and Barrick will keep majority control. Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Citigroup and RBC Capital Markets are leading the offering. The number of shares and the price have not been set yet, and Barrick CEO Mark Hill — who will also lead American Barrick — has said the listing could close late this year or in early 2027. MARKET IMPACT: Barrick shares were little changed in Toronto on Wednesday morning, easing 35 cents to $56.06 — investors got the structure they expected; the price of the new shares is still to come. WHY IT MATTERS: This separates Barrick's lowest-risk asset — Nevada gold — from its mines in Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific, and gives gold investors a pure North American producer to own on its own. Spin-outs like this are meant to unlock value that a blended miner's share price doesn't credit — whether it works depends on the IPO price. 👀 WATCH: the SEC review and the offering price, and how large a stake Barrick actually sells. Source: American Barrick Gold Form S-1 filing with the SEC (Nov 10), via Reuters, Northern Miner and Dow Jones reporting.

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT: India reopens after Diwali with a 1%+ jump — Nifty 25,338, Sensex 82,249 at the open Indian markets reopened Wednesday after the Diwali-Balipratipada holiday and picked up where last week's strong run left off: • The Nifty 50 opened up 1.17% at 25,337.80, from Monday's close of 25,044.65 • The Sensex opened up 1.41% at 82,248.68, from 81,106.65 • All 16 major sectors advanced in early trade; IndiGo and Mahindra & Mahindra were among the early gainers • Foreign investors have flipped to net buyers in November — about ₹53,739 crore of net buying in the first nine days of the month, per provisional NSDL data • Supporting the open: crude at two-month lows after Tuesday's slide, and continuing Q2 earnings momentum The headwind is the same one Wall Street faces: Tuesday's hot US inflation print lifted global yields, with the US 10-year near 5% — the rate backdrop Indian markets now trade against. WHY IT MATTERS: Cheaper oil plus returning foreign money is the friendliest combination Indian household portfolios have had in months — oil is India's biggest import bill, and foreign flows set the tone for the rupee and domestic borrowing costs. 👀 WATCH: whether the early gains hold into the close, and India's October inflation data for the Reserve Bank's December path. Source: NSE/BSE opening data via Upstox and HDFC Sky; FII flows, provisional NSDL data via Upstox.

📊 MARKET SNAPSHOT: Nasdaq futures jump about 1.8% as CoreWeave revives the AI trade — with the bond market shut Wednesday's premarket is a reversal of Tuesday's inflation shock: • Nasdaq 100 futures rose about 1.8% and S&P 500 futures about 0.8% in early trade • CoreWeave surged about 17% premarket to near $57 after its revenue beat and raised outlook (it closed Tuesday at $48.73); Nebius, which reports Thursday, rose about 15% • Nvidia rose about 4–5% premarket after falling 5.5% on Tuesday • Asia led with chips: Japan's Nikkei gained about 1.3%, South Korea's KOSPI about 2.5% and Taiwan's index about 3.6% • Gold recovered about 0.5–0.7% to near $4,055 after Tuesday's slide The unusual backdrop: the US bond market is closed today for Veterans Day while stocks trade as normal — so equities are rallying without the yield signal that drove Tuesday's fall. Tuesday's closes stand as the reference: the 10-year yield near 4.99%, the 2-year at 4.74%, and a December Fed hike fully priced. WHY IT MATTERS: One earnings report revived the AI trade, but the reason stocks fell on Tuesday — inflation and the rate path — has not changed. With no bond market open today, the equity bounce carries less information than usual. 👀 WATCH: whether the open holds once cash trading starts, Nebius earnings before Thursday's open, and Friday's producer prices. Source: Reuters market reporting; AP market data; Yahoo Finance premarket quotes.

🔄 BREAKINGPOCKET UPDATE: Oil rebounds from two-month lows as Hormuz shipping attacks blunt truce hopes Oil prices rose Wednesday after touching two-month lows, as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz cut against hopes of a US-Iran de-escalation. What happened: • Brent rose about 0.6% to $92.01 a barrel in early Wednesday trade, after settling at $91.49 on Tuesday — its lowest since August; US crude was near $86.20 • The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency said a tanker was struck northeast of Lima, Oman, on Tuesday • Iran's Revolutionary Guards Navy said separately that two tankers caught fire after hitting naval mines on an 'unauthorized route' through the strait — that is Tehran's account, not independently confirmed • Attacks are not slowing: 37 ships were attacked in October, the highest monthly total since the war began, according to Washington Institute data cited by Reuters • Iran's security chief also said no enriched nuclear material would leave the country — a hard line that dents near-term deal hopes MARKET IMPACT: The de-escalation premium that pulled Brent below $90 intraday on Tuesday is leaking back out. Oil is now trading headline-to-headline between truce talk and tanker strikes. WHY IT MATTERS: Hormuz is still the valve on global oil supply. As long as ships keep getting hit, crude keeps a risk premium — and that premium flows straight into fuel prices and the inflation central banks are fighting. 👀 WATCH: the OPEC monthly oil report later today, and whether shipping attacks continue into the weekend. Source: Reuters, citing UK Maritime Trade Operations and Washington Institute data.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: Goldman Sachs now expects another Fed hike in March — the hiking cycle just got longer Goldman Sachs has reversed its call that the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle would end in December, Reuters reported Wednesday. After Tuesday's hotter-than-expected October inflation data, the bank now expects a 25-basis-point hike in March as well. The updated path: • December: a 25bp hike is essentially fully priced by markets, per CME FedWatch • The odds of a bigger 50bp December move have risen to about 13.5%, after Fed Governor Waller said a half-point should be considered if core inflation ran at 0.3% or more — October's core CPI printed exactly 0.3%, a third straight month at that pace • Goldman now sees rate cuts starting only in December 2027, three months later than it previously forecast • Deutsche Bank went further on Tuesday, pencilling in hikes in December, January and March MARKET IMPACT: Goldman is the second major bank in 24 hours to extend the hiking path after the same inflation print. The December question is no longer whether the Fed hikes, but how big — and how many follow. WHY IT MATTERS: Every added hike is another quarter-point working its way into mortgage rates, auto loans and credit-card APRs — and a later start to cuts means those costs stay elevated deeper into 2027. 👀 WATCH: Friday's producer price data — the last inflation read that could shift the December size debate before the Fed's December 8–9 meeting. Source: Reuters, reporting Goldman Sachs' updated Fed outlook (chief US economist David Mericle); CME FedWatch pricing via Reuters.

✏️ CORRECTION: Our API oil-inventory post last night had the numbers backwards — here are the right ones Last night we posted, citing the American Petroleum Institute's weekly survey, that US crude stocks fell 9.8 million barrels in the week ended November 6. That was wrong — and the products lines were wrong with it. What the API actually reported for the week ended November 6: • Crude stocks ROSE 9.0 million barrels — a build, against expectations of about a 1 million barrel draw, and reversing the prior week's 5.267 million barrel decline • Distillate stocks rose 1.5 million barrels (not an 8 million barrel fall) • Gasoline stocks were essentially flat, up just 4,000 barrels (not up 2.7 million) • The one line we had right: the Strategic Petroleum Reserve released 2.7 million barrels, to 279.5 million What happened: early summaries of the API release carried the wrong sign, and we posted from them before the corrected figures settled. The revised reporting — including from OilPrice, which had initially carried the wrong version and has since corrected its story — is consistent across Reuters-cited market sources, FXStreet and TradingView: a 9.0 million barrel build. WHY IT MATTERS: The story flips with the sign. Instead of tanks draining into winter, US crude stocks built sharply even as the SPR kept releasing barrels — a looser supply picture than we described, on a day when oil was already falling on de-escalation hopes. The official EIA figures for the same week follow later this week and remain the number that counts. We will post them when they land — and we will wait for them before calling a direction next time. Source: American Petroleum Institute weekly data via Reuters-cited market sources, OilPrice (corrected), FXStreet and TradingView.

🔄 BREAKINGPOCKET UPDATE: CoreWeave's customers are about to prepay roughly $9 billion — the funding detail inside tonight's earnings beat An update to tonight's CoreWeave draft (revenue up 168% to $3.66 billion, backlog $132.5 billion, net loss $709 million): on the earnings call, management addressed the question that has hung over the stock — who pays for the buildout. What the call added: • CoreWeave says it has collected prepayments on about 70% of its deals this year, with customers funding up to 100% of contract value up front • In the next three months alone, it expects to collect approximately $9 billion in prepayments and deposits from signed contracts • Adjusted operating income for the quarter was $379 million, well above the $200–$260 million the company had guided — a stronger figure than the $207 million GAAP operating income in the release WHY IT MATTERS: The bear case on CoreWeave is its debt — near $47 billion, with $846 million of interest in this quarter alone. Customers prepaying $9 billion does not erase that, but it means a real share of the expansion is being funded by the customers themselves, not only by lenders — the distinction that decides how risky the AI buildout's financing really is. 👀 WATCH: whether those prepayments land as promised in the fourth-quarter cash-flow statement, and Nebius on Thursday and Nvidia on November 17 for the next demand reads. Source: CoreWeave Q3 2026 earnings call (management remarks); MarketWatch earnings coverage.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: Firefly Aerospace revenue jumps 259% — a record backlog, and losses that are still the story Firefly Aerospace, the rocket and lunar-lander company, reported third-quarter results after Tuesday's close — the second space name in two days to post record numbers, after Rocket Lab on Monday. The numbers: • Revenue rose 259% from a year earlier to $110.7 million, above the roughly $103 million consensus • Contracted backlog reached a record $1.674 billion, up from $1.468 billion at the end of June • Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $440–$450 million, from $420–$450 million • The other side: a net loss of $94.2 million in the quarter, and an operating loss of $101.6 million — growth is being bought with spending MARKET IMPACT: The shares had already run hard into the report — up about 45% over the past five sessions — so Wednesday's open is the real verdict on whether a 259% growth rate outweighs a near-$100 million quarterly loss. WHY IT MATTERS: Firefly and Rocket Lab are the two pure-play ways ordinary investors own the space economy. Both now pair record backlogs with heavy losses — the sector's growth is real and contracted, but it is still spending far more than it earns, which is why these stocks swing so hard on every report. 👀 WATCH: Wednesday's share reaction, and whether the $1.674 billion backlog starts converting into revenue at the guided pace in the fourth quarter. Source: Firefly Aerospace Q3 2026 results release and quarterly filing summaries; consensus via market data reports.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: US crude stocks plunge 9.8 million barrels — the tight supply story hiding under today's falling oil price Oil fell below $90 a barrel today on hopes the Iran war ends soon. The weekly US inventory snapshot told a tighter story underneath. The American Petroleum Institute's report for the week ended November 6, released Tuesday afternoon: • Commercial crude stocks fell 9.8 million barrels — against a consensus expectation of about a 1 million barrel draw, and more than the prior week's 5.3 million barrel fall • Distillate stocks — diesel and heating oil — fell 8 million barrels, on top of levels already running well below seasonal norms • Gasoline stocks rose 2.7 million barrels, the one softer line in the report • One summary of the report put the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down another 2.7 million barrels, to 279.5 million This is the API's industry survey, not the official count — the Energy Information Administration's own figures for the same week follow later this week and can differ. MARKET IMPACT: The report landed after the main session, so the price test comes overnight and at Wednesday's open. It cuts against the day's diplomacy-driven selloff: the barrels in US tanks are draining fast even as the market prices in cheaper crude ahead. WHY IT MATTERS: Crude can fall on a headline, but diesel and heating oil are priced off what is actually in storage — and an 8 million barrel distillate draw heading into winter is the kind of tightness that keeps fuel and heating costs sticky even when the headline oil price drops. 👀 WATCH: the official EIA report later this week — whether it confirms the API draw — and whether Brent holds below $90 once this supply picture is in the price. Source: American Petroleum Institute weekly report (for the week ended November 6), via OilPrice reporting and inventory data trackers.

⚡ POCKET ALERT: Deutsche Bank now sees three straight Fed hikes — December, January and March Deutsche Bank on Tuesday added a January 2027 rate hike to its Federal Reserve call after October inflation came in hotter than expected. The bank now expects quarter-point hikes in December, January and March, lifting the federal funds rate to 4.50%–4.75%. It previously expected hikes in December and March only. Including September's increase, that would be 100 basis points of tightening in this cycle. "This morning's CPI data continued to show broad-based gains, reinforcing our concerns from earlier this year about the persistence of price pressures," the bank's economists, led by Matthew Luzzetti, wrote. October CPI rose 0.4% on the month against 0.3% expected, with core prices up 0.3% for a third straight month. Deutsche Bank said a 50-basis-point December hike is possible but is not its base case, and it raised its estimate of the longer-run neutral rate to 3.75%–4.00%. WHY IT MATTERS: When a major bank stops treating December as a one-off and starts pencilling in back-to-back hikes, borrowing costs are being repriced for the whole winter — the path matters for anyone renewing a mortgage or carrying variable-rate debt in the months ahead. 👀 WATCH: Friday's producer price report — the last big inflation test before the December 8–9 Fed meeting — and whether other major banks follow Deutsche Bank's lead. Source: Reuters; Deutsche Bank research note, via Seeking Alpha reporting.

👀 POCKET WATCH: Fed's Logan wants at least two more hikes — and maybe faster this winter Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said Tuesday the Federal Reserve needs to deliver at least two more quarter-point rate increases to bring inflation down — and may need to move promptly. In prepared remarks to an energy conference hosted by the Dallas and Kansas City Fed banks, Logan said it "remains clear" to her that the FOMC needs at least two more 25-basis-point increases, that the exact pace could depend on near-term conditions, and that it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter than the Fed has moved this fall. After two more hikes, she said, it would make sense to pause and assess. Her reasoning: the policy rate, now at 3.75%–4.00%, still sits at least 50 basis points below a modestly restrictive level — in her view, policy is still adding to inflation pressure rather than restraining it. Logan is a voting member of the FOMC in 2026. The remarks landed hours after October CPI came in hot — headline +0.4% on the month, core +0.3% for a third straight month — and on the same day Fed Governor Waller put a 50-basis-point December move on the table. WHY IT MATTERS: This is no longer just about December. A voting policymaker is mapping the path beyond it — two more hikes, possibly at a faster pace — which means mortgage rates, car loans and credit-card costs face upward pressure well into the winter, not just at one meeting. 👀 WATCH: Friday's producer price report, and whether other voters echo Logan's two-more-hikes framing before the December 8–9 meeting. Source: Reuters; Logan's prepared remarks at the Dallas and Kansas City Fed energy conference.