GK

Doomben R9 – Wrote this for someone else so will post here. Good race. Some horses I really like in this. Flying Destiny – Map doesn’t look great, so you will know your fate early if Jace can get in or across. Building towards something and brings strong form. Not out of it but prefer others in this unless scratchings change race shape. Now is The Hour - returns for first run this campaign. There isn’t overwhelming pressure on paper so they may try to spear across from out wide. The main concerns are the track condition as it is a classic Vinie and loves roads and may need this first run for the prep and to get out to 1200 to show its best. Seems awfully short for mine despite its quality and wouldn’t be surprised if they scratch. Street Chase - has a lot of ability, brings the right formlines and will presumably roll forward. It won well last start but Ronnie Stewart on? 0/48 for the metro season so far doesn’t inspire confidence. Jack Bruce stable absolutely flying. Can win. Zoubaby – One of my favourites racing up here at present. This is its pet track and trip. It is a real dry tracker for mine. Maybe the track gets back towards a 5 and will be fine for it but I want to see pattern and condition as it has been hard to make ground at some recent meetings. Generally prefer it drawn out and sling-shotting around them on the turn rather than drawing in and trying to work through gaps. Fleetwood - just going okay this prep for mine. Gets in well in this race, but Hampson from the wide draw seems a big risk that they get posted. It seems gross unders given some of the others in this race and considering the map. About to Explode - really developed last preparation into a stakes grade sprinter up here. The runs in the Healy and Hinkler pointed to the horse maturing and going to a new level. The recent trial was good. They went slow and it got up the inside, but Thompson didn’t move. It has no fresh form or Doomben form, but my sense is that last preparation has made this horse and we could be dealing with a different animal this preparation. $7 seems fair enough given the chinks in the others and if the inside is off, I can see Thompson getting to the slingshot position on the turn and trying to finish over the top of them. Power of the Brave - Has had a very unlucky preparation. First two runs in Sydney went forward and was wide and I think you can forgive those. Then draws out and they snick back and hits the line well at this track and distance in a slowly run race finishing beside Fleetwood. Last start they draw out again and was given absolutely none but flies late running some of the best closing splits of the race at the Coast. From the draw and with Pozman on I presume they go forward and will sit right on top or behind this speed. Perfect gate to pick their spot in running. Given there is $23 and $6 the place this is a very easy 1 X 3 bet for me. Other bits and pieces in this race but how I’m playing it at present is: 1 x 3 Power of the Brave $23/$6 then decide closer to the race on whether to have something on About to Explode and/or Street Chase once we see pattern and race complexion post-scratchings Saturday.

Summarising this conversation...

This Aeliana prep is eerily similar to a movie we have seen before. $13+ around for the Melbourne Cup is very generous IMO and she should be the favourite

One of the great feelings in racing is owning a limited horse that tries it's guts out but you are patient through bad luck, injuries and setbacks and it finally wins. Inject it into my veins

This is a very widely held criticism of the current state of play but as is par for the course, the replies flood in from those immediately defending the most powerful interests in the game. It's bizarre to see punters and form analysts do this as it makes you look like you have Stockholm Syndrome. #1 priority should be horse and jockey welfare. #2 protecting the interests of punters, owners and trainers. Current situation looks after SOME owners and SOME trainers. The interests of punters and turnover? yeah no-one gives a flying fuck even tho the industry doesn't exist without us. But by all means, keep defending the most powerful interests in the game against reasonable criticisms. I hope you are looking forward to betting on races where there are only 2 trainers and every horse is dual and triple nommed during the carnivals.

About a year ago, I began the process of building and testing a model to price races - mainly in Brisbane. I did this primarily as I wanted to have much more robust processes to assess past performances against one another. Dave was an invaluable asset to me early, giving me frequent data dumps so I could test and build out the features of my model and validate after meetings. I've started sharing some of that and while it is still early days, the results are promising. Nonetheless, for each meeting I was running the model, it was taking me around 4 hours to prepare preliminary data for the meeting - mainly on a CSV - cleaning data from various sources including from Racing Australia. With the API live, I have been able to automate this entire process. What was previously 4 hours for a Saturday meeting now takes less than a minute! It isn't just the Form King product that is awesome - although it is - it's Dave's genuine commitment to helping everyone who is signed up to Form King. The API is going to be a game-changer for those interested in model building and using data to better understand the chaos that is thoroughbred racing. @davepband