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The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget is a nonpartisan group of budget experts concerned about this nation's fiscal future. https://nitter.cf/t.co/e8R4vf8v9S
Washington, DC
Joined January 2010
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☑️Objective. ☑️Nonpartisan. ☑️Committed to Fiscal Responsibility.
Follow the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget for our latest analysis of what's shaping the fiscal conversation in Washington.
🔗crfb.org/ | 📲@BudgetHawks
🚨 NEW: PWBM Shows Social Security Solvency Would Improve Fiscal Outlook, Boost Growth
Restoring solvency to the Social Security trust funds could grow the economy and help fix the debt, according to recent estimates of different Social Security solvency packages from Penn Wharton @BudgetModel (PWBM).
PWBM estimates the seven Social Security solvency packages they analyzed would increase 2060 GDP by anywhere from 0.4% to 12.1% and reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio by 14% to 27% in that year.
Click here to learn more about the analyzed solvency packages and estimates ➡️ crfb.org/blogs/pwbm-shows-so….
🚨 The growth in the debt-to-GDP ratio over the last quarter century is responsible for an estimated 1.5% of interest rates. #DebtFacts
📝 ICYMI: Yesterday, former Representative and Governor of Ohio, and current CRFB Board Member, @JohnKasich published an opinion piece for his Substack “Keep Faith America” breaking down his long experience working on fiscal policy, where his mission to balance the budget began, and what made past efforts successful. Importantly, he also writes on how to answer the most important question: how could Washington do it again?
Click here to read the full piece 👉 johnkasich.substack.com/p/ba….
🚨 NEW: U.S. Ran a $2 Trillion Deficit Last Year
Fiscal Year (FY) 2026 ended yesterday. Although official figures have not yet been released, our preliminary estimates show high and rising deficits and debt. For FY 2026, we estimate:
➡️ A budget deficit of $2.0 trillion, or 6.2% of GDP.
➡️ Debt held by the public of $32.3 trillion, or 100% of GDP.
➡️ Spending of $7.4 trillion, or 22.9% of GDP.
➡️ Revenue of $5.4 trillion, or 16.7% of GDP.
➡️ Interest costs of $1.1 trillion, a record 3.4% of GDP.
➡️ Interest was the second largest line item in the budget, costing more than defense or Medicare.
At $2.0 trillion, we estimate budget deficits were about $210 billion above FY 2025 levels, $135 billion above the @USCBO February projections, and about $305 billion higher than what the Council of Economic Advisers had projected.
Learn more about our estimates here 👉 crfb.org/blogs/us-ran-2-tril….
CRFB.org retweeted
🚨A new fiscal year begins with our national debt exceeding $40 trillion. Congress must act now.
The Problem Solvers Caucus has endorsed bipartisan solutions to stabilize the debt, balance the federal budget, and better prepare for future emergencies.
Republicans and Democrats must advance these proposals and put our country on stronger financial footing. Further delay will only leave future generations with a larger bill.
problemsolverscaucus.house.g…
🎆 Happy Fiscal New Year!
It's October 1, which means a new fiscal year has just begun – and plenty of opportunities to set some resolutions for the year to come.
What Fiscal New Year's Resolution should lawmakers commit to for FY 2026? We have some ideas below⤵️
With a growing list of politically thorny fiscal decisions to make and time running out to make decisions, lawmakers should turn to establishing a bipartisan fiscal commission in FY 2027 tasked with putting all areas of the budget on the table and finding compromise across the aisle. Commissions have helped achieve fiscal reforms, save Social Security, and allow for tough political choices outside the noise of political obstruction and special interests.
Learn more ➡️ crfb.org/papers/its-still-ti….
CRFB.org retweeted
Renaming Social Security's retirement ages is a smart idea. Congrats to @LloydSmuckerPA, @DonBeyerVA, @RepAaronBean and @RepTomSuozzi for getting it done!
crfb.org/blogs/congress-clar…
🚨NEW: Congress Clarifies Social Security's Retirement Ages
The Senate passed the Claiming Age Clarity Act by unanimous consent this week. Having passed the House last December, the bill will now go to the President for his signature. The legislation will change the official names of Social Security’s three significant retirement ages to the Minimum Monthly Benefit Age (62), the Standard Monthly Benefit Age (67), and the Maximum Monthly Benefit Age (70).
Changing the way the Social Security ages are described is a good first step in improving retirement signals so that workers can make better informed retirement decisions.
Learn more here🔗crfb.org/blogs/congress-clar….
🚨 Last week, auctions for 5-year and 7-year Treasury securities cleared at yields not seen in decades...
Despite the strong yields, the auctions showed weaker demand across key metrics compared with the past 12 months. Auction weakness has coincided with a broader climb in Treasury yields over the past few weeks, with the 10-year Treasury note topping 5.2% last week and the 30-year bond reaching beyond 5.5%.
The Treasury market is shaped by a complex mix of forces, ranging from our large and rising debt to growth, inflation, dollar status, the composition of debt, who holds the debt, and more.
Our new Fiscal Dashboard brings these indicators together in one place, allowing users to track these forces as they evolve 📊
Learn more here ➡️ crfb.org/blogs/monitoring-tr….
🚨 NEW: Washington Needs a Fiscal Intervention
Long-term interest rates are approaching their highest yields in 20 years today, with the 10-year Treasury yield topping 5.2% and the 30-year bond topping 5.6%. Current yields are roughly 1 percentage point above where @USCBO projected they would be, which if sustained would add an additional $3.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade and boost deficits to a massive 8% of GDP by 2036.
The following is a statement from CRFB President @MayaMacGuineas ⤵️
🚨 The growth rate would need to average 4.4% (2.5 times projections) to reduce deficits to the target 3% of GDP. #DebtFacts
📈 Monitoring the Treasury Market with Fiscal Dashboard
The Treasury market has been making headlines recently, amid poor Treasury auction results and heightened volatility in yields.
While strong growth and persistent, uncertain inflation have weighed on demand for Treasury securities, large deficits, rising debt, and shifts in the investor base are also putting pressure on the Treasury market.
You can track these trends and more in our new Fiscal Dashboard 📊
Learn more 🔗 crfb.org/blogs/monitoring-tr….