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You are not bullish enough on $QS.
⚡ The technology is real
844 Wh/L energy density. 12-minute fast charge (10–80%). 1,000+ cycles, less than 5% degradation. Anode-free lithium-metal with a ceramic separator thinner than a human hair.
🔋 The graphite problem nobody prices in
Every lithium-ion battery needs graphite. Over 90% of global supply comes from China.
$QS is anode-free. Zero graphite. Zero China dependency.
In a world of tariffs, supply chain decoupling, and energy sovereignty — it's a structural moat almost no analyst is modeling.
🤝 The commercial ecosystem is being assembled
Automotive:
• Volkswagen / PowerCo — Collaboration Agreement + $130M conditional royalty prepayment, up to 80 GWh licensed capacity
• Hyundai — JDA signed
• Honda — JDA signed
• Mystery North American OEM — JDA signed December 2025 👀
My hypothesis on the mystery OEM: Ford or Tesla.
→ Ford: Solid Power JDA expired Dec 31, 2025. ~$18B in conventional battery contracts cancelled. Timing is surgical.
→ Tesla: Maxwell Technologies acquisition history. CEO publicly commenting on anode-free patents. Not eliminated.
Both fit. I'm watching both.
Beyond automotive:
• Fluence ($FLNC, Siemens/AES JV) — multi-year stationary storage agreement (grid, data centers, solar)
Manufacturing supply chain:
• Murata — JDA signed October 2025 for ceramic separator industrialization. What most miss: Murata isn't just a supplier — they develop their own solid-state batteries. This is two SSB players aligning on a shared technology stack.
Corning isn't just helping $QS scale ceramic separator production. They have developed their own proprietary "Ribbon Ceramics" manufacturing process — a high-speed, high-precision ceramic forming technology that positions them not only as a supplier, but as a future seller of solid-state battery components at scale.
Corning's Program Director of Energy Materials put it plainly:
"Regardless of the chemistry, the technology gives us a winning advantage."
They're not betting on $QS out of charity. They're betting because their own commercial roadmap depends on solid-state batteries becoming real — and they've chosen $QS as the partner to make that happen.
• Digatron — Eagle Line production equipment
This is not a startup with a deck. This is an ecosystem being assembled in plain sight.
🏭 Eagle Line is operational
First commercial-scale solid-state production line — inaugurated, running for months. The lab-to-factory transition is underway.
🏍️ Real-world proof point incoming
Ducati V21L — field testing live in 2026.
I'm personally watching two events:
→ World Ducati Week: July 2026
→ IAA Munich: September 2026
First public validation on a real vehicle. It's happening this year.
🚀 Beyond EVs — and I'm genuinely excited about this
The non-automotive pipeline is barely discussed. I believe 2026 will change that.
$QS has officially listed its target commercial applications:
→ Nuclear
→ Drones & defense
→ Electric vehicles
→ Wind energy storage
→ Smartphones
→ Smartwatches
Stationary storage & data centers: $QS already has the Fluence agreement in place. First-mover position in an infrastructure segment exploding with AI-driven demand. More news coming.
Drones & defense: No graphite = no China supply chain = full domestic production potential. The latest drone footage is not just a demo — it's a signal.
And this week $QS announced Dr. Mark Maybury to its Strategic Advisory Board.
Dr. Maybury is currently VP of Commercialization, Engineering & Technology at Lockheed Martin — leading the transition of cutting-edge research into scalable products for commercial and defense applications. He previously served as Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force (2010–2013), and as CTO at Stanley Black & Decker.
His own words:
"I see tremendous opportunity for QuantumScape to redefine energy storage across multiple sectors, including defense, where reliable, high-performance batteries are mission critical."
Consumer electronics: Density + safety at scale.
$QS is not priced for any of this.
The non-automotive TAM is real. The agreements are being signed. The people are joining. The announcements are coming.
You can't expect a 10x without stomaching 50–80% drawdowns.
Check your thesis. If it's still intact — and mine is — tune out the noise and trust management to execute.
The shorts won't win forever.
Thank you for reading.
$RDDT -18% after hours. Tough day.
This earnings season is ruthless. Semis get shredded because nobody knows if AI capex is sustainable, and at the same time, the market punishes anything that looks like it’s getting eaten by AI.
To be fair, part of the fear is real. People who used to find Reddit through Google now get their answer from AI. Management warns total DAUq could fall by a low-double-digit % in Q4.
But there’s a core user base that keeps coming back directly:
Logged-in DAUq grew QoQ in the US and internationally
US revenue +50% with US users at -2%
US ARPU $13.82, +53% YoY
Huffman: “We’re growing where it counts, which is engagement from our app and logged in users.”
The other fear is the move to logged-in only. Huffman: “We’ll likely be trading reach for engagement.” The logic: “Over 80% of our revenue comes from logged in users.”
It will be a messy transition, and a login wall will push away a lot of casual visitors. But Instagram, Facebook, LinkedIn and X all went through it. Long term, it makes sense.
Management has to execute this turn well. I’m staying bullish.
I bought a $RDDT call.
I'm not playing earnings. I'm playing the long-term growth story, and I already hold other LEAPS.
This week's selloff is overdone, so I added.
I bought a $RDDT call.
I'm not playing earnings. I'm playing the long-term growth story, and I already hold other LEAPS.
This week's selloff is overdone, so I added.
$RDDT: -13% since Friday, $150 → $130, hours before earnings.
The fear is that AI summaries kill Reddit’s search traffic. Huffman on the last call: search is volatile, “but that’s not where our business lives.”
The numbers back him up. Last quarter:
- Revenue +61%, the 8th straight quarter above 60%
- 91% gross margin
- 43% adj. EBITDA margin
- $261M FCF on $1M capex
Semiconductor-grade numbers, without the fabs, the inventory or the supply chain.
Out of 300+ U.S. tech companies, Reddit is the only one combining 40%+ growth, 30%+ FCF and EBITDA margins, under $15M capex and a 90%+ gross margin.
And monetization is still early. Huffman admits the feed is “just behind the state of the art,” and an international user brings in 5x less than a US one.
You get all of that for ~30x trailing EPS and ~24x 2026 consensus, with $2.8B in cash and zero debt. Management was buying back stock at $157 last quarter.
Earnings tonight after the close.
Long $RDDT
$RDDT: -13% since Friday, $150 → $130, hours before earnings.
The fear is that AI summaries kill Reddit’s search traffic. Huffman on the last call: search is volatile, “but that’s not where our business lives.”
The numbers back him up. Last quarter:
- Revenue +61%, the 8th straight quarter above 60%
- 91% gross margin
- 43% adj. EBITDA margin
- $261M FCF on $1M capex
Semiconductor-grade numbers, without the fabs, the inventory or the supply chain.
Out of 300+ U.S. tech companies, Reddit is the only one combining 40%+ growth, 30%+ FCF and EBITDA margins, under $15M capex and a 90%+ gross margin.
And monetization is still early. Huffman admits the feed is “just behind the state of the art,” and an international user brings in 5x less than a US one.
You get all of that for ~30x trailing EPS and ~24x 2026 consensus, with $2.8B in cash and zero debt. Management was buying back stock at $157 last quarter.
Earnings tonight after the close.
Long $RDDT
Korea wakes up green after $SKHY earnings 🇰🇷🟢
KOSPI: 5,947 (+5.48%)
Record quarter, 80% operating margin, demand outpacing supply through 2030, and ~₩100T in shareholder returns for 2026.
Samsung reports tomorrow.
SK Hynix was down more than 50% from its June peak a few days ago. Looks like the AI trade isn't dead after all.
$SOXX should open green tomorrow. If it doesn't, that would be a bad sign for the AI trade, but that's not my bet.
$MU $SNDK
$SKHY Q3: monster numbers 🔥
• Revenue: $78.9B (est. $74.8B) / +328% YoY
• Operating profit: $62.8B (est. $58.5B) / +632% YoY
• Operating margin: 80%, an all-time record
• QoQ: revenue +32%, operating profit +38%
• DRAM prices up high-20% QoQ
• Q4 guide: DRAM bit growth mid-20% QoQ
SK Hynix sees demand outpacing supply through 2030, and 2027-2028 long-term agreements already lock in over 50% of production capacity.
My take: this cycle runs at least until 2031-2032.
The buybacks are a big plus: ₩40T repurchased and cancelled, a steady source of buying pressure supporting the stock.
I see a 2x opportunity in memory. I know it's cyclical: historically, you bought on high forward P/Es and sold on low ones.
Expecting more green tomorrow on $SOXX, $NBIS, $LITE and $BE 🟢
$SKHY Q3: monster numbers 🔥
• Revenue: $78.9B (est. $74.8B) / +328% YoY
• Operating profit: $62.8B (est. $58.5B) / +632% YoY
• Operating margin: 80%, an all-time record
• QoQ: revenue +32%, operating profit +38%
• DRAM prices up high-20% QoQ
• Q4 guide: DRAM bit growth mid-20% QoQ
SK Hynix sees demand outpacing supply through 2030, and 2027-2028 long-term agreements already lock in over 50% of production capacity.
My take: this cycle runs at least until 2031-2032.
The buybacks are a big plus: ₩40T repurchased and cancelled, a steady source of buying pressure supporting the stock.
I see a 2x opportunity in memory. I know it's cyclical: historically, you bought on high forward P/Es and sold on low ones.
Expecting more green tomorrow on $SOXX, $NBIS, $LITE and $BE 🟢
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢
🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY
🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY
🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B
2027 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026
🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4
🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully
🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026
🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4
Business Highlights:
🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains
🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation
🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY
🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
$QS just posted a role for a Director of Government Relations in Washington. Brand-new position, reporting straight to the CFO.
On the ER, Siva said QS was looking for non-dilutive funding for the 100 MWh line, including from the government.
What stood out most to me in the posting is the phrase “factory-scale capital.” To me, QS is already thinking beyond 100 MWh.
The posting is pretty clear about what they want: land prototype funding fast, go after factory-scale capital, and have a say in US battery policy.
They’re targeting the DOE, DARPA, DIU, DPA Title III, and even the Pentagon’s Office of Strategic Capital. They also want the tech recognized as critical to get a real line in the defense budget. And push for US government battery purchasing to require non-China content.
Of course, a job posting doesn’t mean funding secured, and these programs take time. The funding plan is expected with Q4 results.
The role is remote, but based in Washington, D.C. or the D.C. metro area. The listing itself is tagged Maryland, right next to the capital.
$RDT: The "LLMs will kill Reddit’s traffic" narrative is the main thing weighing on $RDDT right now, and I think it’s overdone.
Huffman on the last call: search is volatile, "but that’s not where our business lives." Revenue comes from logged-in users who actually use the app, and that base keeps growing (+7%, total DAU +18%). US DAU dipped slightly because of Google referrals, and ads still did +64% in the same quarter.
The other thing: Reddit is still pretty bad at monetizing. Huffman admitted the feed is "just behind the state of the art," and an international user brings in about 5x less than a US one. That’s a lot of room left.
Reminds me of the "AI kills SaaS" panic.
Long $RDDT.
Reddit is an amazing company with incredible fundamentals
It’s a company with an unfuckwithable MOAT : human conversations about human experiences
Its cultural impact is unmatched and this has allowed management to turn the company into a free cash flow generator
More right wing people should be allowed to speak up (peacefully) on the platform, and banning should be moderated (lol), other than this it’s a banger of an app
Current EV/sales = 7
My PT when sentiment shifts : EV/sales = 18
My PT when euphoria settles in : EV/sales = 35
PT if growth slows down meaningfully : EV/sales = 5
PT if growth slows down meaningfully and margins deteriorate : EV/sales =3
$RDDT #RDDT
$QQQ
Clean bounce off 702.7, a level tested multiple times since July. Wick below, close above, then +1.4%. Buyers defended it.
Now the question: technical bounce or real reversal?
→ Gap 715–720 with the 8 EMA (717) inside: first resistance. A daily close above 720 = first real signal
→ 726–728: 21 EMA + last lower high. Below it, the structure stays bearish
8 EMA below the 21 EMA since mid-October, short-term momentum still favors sellers.
Lose 702.7 and it’s 685.8, then 669–678 with the 200MA.
Big week ahead: big tech earnings + PCE on Thursday. The gap could get settled fast, either way.
$QQQ: yesterday's gap has been filled and yesterday's lows were retested. Buyers are firmly defending the 707–710 zone. If it breaks, it's straight to 703.
Short term, we're in a consolidation phase, which is normal within a long-term uptrend.
If AI names like $NBIS, $BE, $LITE and $MU close green tonight, even on a small bounce, we can consider that a floor has been found. That's still a positive sign.
Next catalyst: $NVDA's GTC tomorrow, which could spark the rebound.