Financial market historian and author. Former FinTech CEO, hedge fund CIO and Managing Director at Deutsche and Lehman. https://nitter.cf/t.co/U9nHwnGDIE
Various
Joined April 2012
- Tweets11.5K
- Following1.2K
- Followers7.4K
- Likes1.6K
John Butler retweeted
John on Russia: mass an army in northeastern Ukraine and you can be in Moscow in days.
Once a state decides something is existential, any cost is justified. Russia will not stop, period.
Is that why Ukraine was never winnable?
John Butler retweeted
John: by the third century Rome was losing more battles than it won, and the decline went exponential from there.
His claim is the US is now on the wrong side of that ratio too.
Is America tracking Rome, or is this pattern-matching?
John Butler retweeted
John: clever diplomacy could have normalized relations with Iran, with security guarantees from Turkey and Pakistan.
Instead the US chose a military solution that has failed, and public opinion heads toward 90% against.
Could a deal really have worked?
John Butler retweeted
John: Iran could turn the Gulf into a lifeless desert overnight if it wanted to.
But he argues it doesn't want to. Pakistan, Saudi and Turkey all sent officials to Tehran recently, a sign Iran prefers a diplomatic outcome with its neighbors.
Do you buy that read?
John Butler retweeted
"You're seeing a shift in the demand function for gold vis à vis dollars." — @ButlerGoldRevo
John Butler retweeted
John: failure to control the Gulf is the shot heard round the world.
His claim is that everyone now sees the US is no longer the single top dog everywhere, and behavior changes accordingly.
Overstated, or already happening?
John Butler retweeted
Is it game over or more to come? And if there’s more, what comes next ? 👇
Is Iran the Suez moment that ends US hegemony?
John says yes: the battlefield is Iran, and the US has already retreated from it. Boots on the ground are off the table, public opinion is lost in months not years. Iran only has to survive to win.
Brent pushes back: how is this different from Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam? Every hegemon is always at war on the edge of empire. Too early to call it.
Which side are you on?
Full episode...
John Butler retweeted
John: if the US can't control the Gulf and Red Sea littorals against Yemenis, how does it hold the South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait?
Brent keeps asking for the evidence and says he doesn't find it.
Who's reading this right?
John Butler retweeted
It just so happens that @ButlerGoldRevo and I touched on this exact possibility on the latest @TATakeAwayShow which will be released tomorrow.
Stay tuned...! 👇
The U.S. has just announced the total isolation of Iran, in addition to the naval blockade that has been in place against Iranian ports for months.
CENTCOM commander Adm. Brad Cooper has established Task Force "Iron Gate," a team of around 20 civilian and military personnel based in Tampa, Florida.
Their task is to prevent Iran from using land routes and the Caspian Sea to transport advanced weapons, dual-use technology, and sanctioned materials.
John Butler retweeted
Does the government borrow first and then spend, or spend first and borrow never?
That single question splits the whole debate. Brent says both the free market model and the MMT model can actually work, just not equally well.
Which comes first in your view?
John Butler retweeted
With no gold and no reserves, there is only one realistic way to pay off your debt: devalue against the rest of the world and export your way out.
Butler ties it to the chronic US current account and trade deficit.
Is devaluation the only exit?
John Butler retweeted
If the central bank just funds deficits at below market rates to hit a GDP target, then drop the charade.
Butler's warning: that puts you on a slippery slope to central planning beyond even what we saw after 2008.
Is honesty about the system worth that risk?
John Butler retweeted
The forgotten near-depression of 1920.
The market crashed hard and Warren Harding, instead of bailing everyone out, slashed the budget and let deflation run. What followed was the Roaring Twenties.
Is this the playbook we abandoned?
John Butler retweeted
Check out my chat with @ButlerGoldRevo about the Polish Constitutional Crisis and the ramifications for Polish gold and the zloty - plus why Aesopian traditions may be making a comeback. Link to full vid in reply.
John Butler retweeted
I was reminded today of the odd public exchange that occurred between Nawrocki and Tusk on Sept 18. I wrote about it in my daily Blind Spot linkfest email at the time...(link in self reply post, and have put it outside the paywall).
Given what's happened since, I think it's fair to speculate that my hunch that they were drawing on Poland's Aesopian communication tradition (mowa ezopowa) might have some substance.
I suspect most geopolitical commentators are unaware of this tradition. Yet, given the path we're going down, it's probably worth familiarising yourself with the concept.
I will be discussing all this and more (notably the implications of the constitutional crisis for the zloty and Poland's gold holdings) at 1pm UK time today with @ButlerGoldRevo.
Join me for the session here:
open.substack.com/live-strea…
John Butler retweeted
Are we currently in MMT purgatory?
And if so, where do we go from here?
Check out the debate and write-up below. 👇
@ButlerGoldRevo
@TATakeAwayShow
transatlantictakeaway.com/p/…
John Butler retweeted
Debt goes from 120 percent of GDP to 1.2 percent, and nobody cares anymore.
Butler's point: the nominal debt never falls, but devalue enough and the ratio becomes a non-issue. That is inflationary, not deflationary.
Is inflating it away the plan?
John Butler retweeted
Check out the latest episode of @TATakeAwayShow where @ButlerGoldRevo and I take on the topic of MMT.
Regardless of which side one comes down on...the topic is always ripe for debate. 👇
Has the West quietly already implemented MMT, or are we stuck halfway?
Brent: the system runs on spend-first mechanics now, and that can last far longer than hard-money types expect.
John: even if MMT describes the plumbing, making it explicit removes the last constraints on government and starts us down a central-planning slide.
Purgatory, or the slope? Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Can a country run twin deficits for decades and still have a strong currency? The dollar has, and that is the puzzle this episode fights over.
Brent: the dollar is backed by debt now, and the $115T eurodollar system means demand for dollars abroad is the trap no one can escape yet.
John: fiscal dominance, endless sanctions and the twin deficits are quietly poisoning that same demand.
Overplayed hand or decades left to run? Which side are you on?
John Butler retweeted
Can a country run twin deficits for decades and still have a strong currency? The dollar has, and that is the puzzle this episode fights over.
Brent: the dollar is backed by debt now, and the $115T eurodollar system means demand for dollars abroad is the trap no one can escape yet.
John: fiscal dominance, endless sanctions and the twin deficits are quietly poisoning that same demand.
Overplayed hand or decades left to run? Which side are you on?