JH

Hate to waste timeline real estate on this, and I know you guys are smarter than this, but the sheer volume of DMs forcing my hand calls for a quick PSA: 1) I do not manage outside capital, offer investment advice, or run managed accounts. Any DM offering this is a straight up scam. I only run risk for my firm and family. I’m the worst PM in the universe—handing me your cash is an express ticket to zero. 2) Aside from this single primary X handle and one tiny Korean-language Telegram channel, I run zero other socials. Impersonator bots keep spawning faster than I can report them. 3) I do not shill crypto products, nor do I broker physical crude deals over DMs. I don't touch retail crypto vehicles, and I stepped away from the physical crude desk years ago. Anyone pitching this in your inbox is a fake. 4) If you spot my exact market takes or frameworks translated and AI-regurgitated a few days later on other socials, Substacks, or Korean forums, it's just bad actors pirating my ideas. I see it, but I can't be bothered to police it. 5) All content posted here is 100% independent and unsponsored by any entity or company. Nothing here represents the official stance, views, or book positions of my employer. This account is pre-cleared with corporate compliance, and all posting adheres strictly to relevant financial market conduct and ethics. Even if the compliance regime is pretty relaxed given my jurisdiction, I don’t cut corners on the non-negotiables. Appreciate everyone who’s been flagging these scam handles in my DMs. Have a great weekend folks!

Totally get not wanting to go long or short oil rn. Long vol remains the cleanest expression; implieds are dirt cheap compared to where we're sitting. #oott #iran

FYI that "Khamenei calls for end of war" headline is literally from Tasnim. Full context tells a different story. Know nobody cares about nuance in this clown market, but sharing the raw source for the few who do. - <Meeting of the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council with the Supreme Leader> -Emphasis on Fulfilling Iran’s Conditions Aimed at Ending the War Major General Dr. Mohsen Rezaee, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, met with the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei. During this meeting, Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei referred to the Supreme National Security Council and its secretariat as the "crossroads of prudence" in managing the country's affairs, emphasizing the mutual influence across the four domains of "culture," "politics," "economy," and "security," as well as the necessity of attaching appropriate policy frameworks to decision-making in each sector. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution stated that having a roadmap based on a complete picture of every action—from inception to completion—is a prerequisite for making firm and well-founded decisions. Strengthening national cohesion, unity, and mutual trust between the people and authorities; utilizing the constitutional capacity, especially Article 176, to assist the President and executive bodies in facilitating and expediting solutions to the nation’s problems; safeguarding national and regional security by exercising control over the Strait of Hormuz; and consolidating bilateral relations with neighboring countries grounded in sustainable, mutual interests were among the other key topics addressed in this meeting. The Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution characterized the enemy’s desperation as a fruit of national resistance, underscoring active and timely public communication to sustain popular participation in defending the country and the system. He also emphasized pursuing the rights and interests of the Iranian nation and the Axis of Resistance through the realization of the conditions set forth by state officials to end the war and conclude the state of "neither war nor peace." During this meeting, the Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council presented a report on the nation's conditions across various domains and current ongoing initiatives. In his report, Dr. Mohsen Rezaee highlighted the pursuit of the Islamic Republic's strategic policy toward "organizing endogenous regional arrangements and order" as one of the active measures undertaken by the secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council.

I am hearing RUMORS that China just cut their November refined product export quotas by 30%! This is completely UNACCEPTABLE! Because of Sleepy Joe Biden and Obama, the entire World is suffering from massive Diesel and Gasoline shortages! They bow down to China, but I NEVER WILL! I will be urging the highly respected President Xi to export more refined products IMMEDIATELY. The Chinese people love me. Hard to believe, but true! Europe, who is trying to steal Greenland, will be thanking me! Even Asia, who does NOTHING to help fight the damn Iranians, will be thanking me! They do absolutely nothing, but out of the goodness of my heart, I will get China to export more for them. The Failing New York Times (FAKE NEWS!) is saying pump prices went up because of the Iran War. As always, they are COMPLETELY WRONG! Unlike Sleepy Joe and Obama, I was VERY SUCCESSFUL in stopping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. AMERICA IS GREAT AGAIN! Iran will thank me one day. They will probably build a very big statue. A statue made of GOLD. I love gold! The American people will be THANKING ME that they have a President who is a MASTER OF THE DEAL! The rest of the World will be thanking me as well! I make the BEST deals, maybe the greatest ever, and I will do the exact same thing with China! Fuel prices will be dropping beautifully and BIG very soon! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! #oott #Iran

COTA paddock all weekend! Ping my WhatsApp if you're in Austin, hanging out with the Houston boys.

Btw India is carrying the global diesel market rn. Upping exports in 2H kept us from getting totally crushed. Neighbor country busy cooking up "Pakistani sauce," sucking up to the US, and daytrading derivatives just to pay off the IMF lmao. India actually delivers the barrels. Be nice to Indians fr. Rubio visiting Reliance isn't a coincidence, it’s all connected to this. #oott #iran

Russian diesel is FLOODING the global market because Putin completely caved to me in what my people called the most unbelievable deal they've ever seen—to which I said, "I know, it's what I do!"—unlike Sleepy Joe who would have sent them ICE CREAM or Obama who just gave away massive amounts of money! The Russian people love me and will thank me when this is over (SAD for those crying, but HAPPY for Americans, ExxonMobil, and Valero!), even though the FAKE NEWS New York Times is totally wrong to claim I abandoned Ukraine when I actually made the greatest peace negotiation in history. The Nobel Peace Prize Committee better be watching because AMERICA IS GREAT AGAIN, and one day even Iran will thank me by building a massive, beautiful GOLD statue (I love gold!). THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER! #oott #russia

Hormuz LNG still way behind crude recovery, leaving global LNG balances tethered to USGC now. Asia & Europe better hope this winter isn't freezing. Good luck 🥹

Guys, let's all hit him with a "Thank you Robin!" in the replies. The exact millisecond Robin and his cute little Claude became physic crude savants, Dated Brent ripped straight back up alongside prompt futures! Thank you Robin! #oott #iran

Lmk the second "Dr." Anas starts bragging he predicted this oil pump. Need that contrarian top signal asap.

Robin Brooks... What an absolute menace... Thought we were getting $12 whale oil finally, but the second he asks Claude what a Dated Brent/calendar spread is and starts flexing, Brent structure immediately bounces. Certified sleeper agent for fucking oil bulls 😡 #oott #iran

Also fwiw, there’s no phantom stash of Iranian crude that magically teleports into China the second sanctions get waived. Every single floating barrel parked outside the blockade at places like EOPL has already been fully hoovered up by China anyway. #oott #Iran

Before you get drunk on the headlines, let me walk you through the actual mechanics. Under General License HH, shipping entity Roxette Maritime Shipping and Trading S.A. and seven associated vessels got slapped onto the SDN list today. Concurrently, General License GG authorizes all transactions ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind-down of transactions involving 'Karnakis and Karnakis' or any entity owned 50% or more, directly or indirectly, by them ("Karnakis and Karnakis Entities"). The newly designated, sanctioned hulls under Roxette Maritime are: ANEMOS (IMO: 9205952), GLORIS (IMO: 9449510), PRIDE (IMO: 9487407), DESTINY (IMO: 9385491), FLAMINGO 1 (IMO: 9474199), HARMONY (IMO: 9449522), and PRINCE (IMO: 9548316). Through this GL HH, the following narrow carve-outs are authorized: 1) Offloading at destination is permitted strictly for non-Iranian cargoes that were already loaded aboard these hulls prior to October 21. 2) Essential humanitarian provisions necessary to maintain the health, safety, and lives of the crew on board remain permitted. 3) Emergency marine repairs and environmental containment/salvage operations arising in transit are cleared. 4) The hard sunset on all safe-harbor activities is November 20, 2026. Any discharge or operational activity past this cutoff will be treated as outright illicit, triggering secondary sanctions risk. 5) This is strictly a damage control exit window. Fixing new charters or lifting fresh stems with designated entities is categorically prohibited. 6) Entering into new commercial agreements involving property or interests in property of blocked persons remains banned. No transactions prohibited under ITSR—including dealings with Iran, the Government of Iran, or Iranian-origin goods/services—are authorized. 7) Any payments owed to blocked persons must be routed directly into blocked accounts under ITSR compliance. The cargo loaded on the ship may not be the property of Roxette Maritime, but legitimate non-Iranian cargo belonging to general global trading companies or third-country buyers. If OFAC dropped an absolute blackout on all vessel ops without a wind-down clause, innocent charterers would be left stranded with hundreds of millions of dollars of physical product rotting in the middle of the ocean with zero legal recourse. This is textbook collateral damage control and maritime risk prevention. But of course, the broader peanut gallery is entirely too fucking lazy to read beyond the raw headline. Watching tourists claim Washington is "sending a surrender signal to Tehran" or crying "TACO" is so laughably brain-dead it physically hurts. Literally takes 1 minute to pull the actual OFAC annex and read the fine print. ofac.treasury.gov/media/9372… ofac.treasury.gov/media/9372… #oott #iran

Adding more bull porn edition 4. Holy shit Robin... slow the fuck down. I was only planning on updating this until i unwound my position, but at this rate, you're gonna hit Edition 100 before I even get the chance to flatten my book. I won't even bother bringing up Dated Brent and freight mechanics. You're way too fucking dense to understand how the pricing plumbing actually works anyway—go ask your buddy Claude to spoon feed you a bedtime story about it. Then again Claude’s probably gonna hallucinate and give you garbage anyway, so you might as well just stay blissfully ignorant. 1) Higher physic flows do not guarantee lower flat price. I actually started stepping into my long back in late September, right when tourists like you were losing your minds over the uptick in Hormuz transits. Meanwhile zero-budget OSINT tanker trackers had already flagged the exact same volume spikes weeks before that. You’re literally out here beating a dead horse and calling it alpha. Go look at my posts from late August and early September—it was wall to wall warnings on surging loadings, which got me dragged through the mud by permabulls back then. nitter.cf/CRUDEOIL231/status/209… nitter.cf/CRUDEOIL231/status/209… Your timing is laughably late, yet you're barking like you just discovered fucking Atlantis. We all know you don't trade your own capital anyway, but if you were sitting on an actual desk, you would’ve been summarily fired on the spot. 2) Equal pre-war supply does not dictate equal pre-war pricing. This is literally Day 1 stuff—did you sleep through Econ 101? Just look at how many millions of barrels have been completely drained from global commercial stocks and the SPR between late February and today. It is literally that fucking simple, man. What is actually wrong with you? 3) Out in the real world, there are things called landed values and actual netback margins. The ultimate end users of crude are refiners—try rubbing two brain cells together and think about how landed costs and margins dictate refinery run cuts or runs. Benchmark flat price can rip higher while refinery economics actually improve. Of course landed value components include physical differentials and freight, but as established, you're far too brain-dead to grasp what those even are, so never mind. 4) Sure the back end of the crude curve doesn't guarantee future spot settlement. But it explicitly prices in consensus macro expectations, inventories, perceived term risk premia, and directional structural shifts based on all available information today. If you honestly believe 2027/2028 calendar swaps getting violently repriced across the board means absolutely nothing... I genuinely don’t even know what to tell you. Look Robin, I get the hustle. You have to manufacture sensationalist horseshit to peddle your fucking newsletter. It’s the classic playbook for third rate tourists who can't survive off an actual trade. But with that "illustrious" career you never shut up about, at least try to preserve a shred of professional dignity. Btw please don't block me. Hate reading your posts has been my absolute favorite form of free entertainment for the past few months. Thanks Robin! Keep it up till $666!!!!