Head of Futures & FX @tastyliveshow
Bedford, NY
Joined January 2010
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The first bounce wasn't the bottom. Nasdaq-100 down over 13% from its October high (22 days). @tastylive study found 47 similar selloffs since 1986. It can get worse from here, faster than you think. (1/3)
Nasdaq-100 down over 9% from its October high. @tastylive study found 100 similar selloffs since 1986. The first bounce may not be the bottom. (1/4)
After a 13% drop, average returns were +1.47% in 1 week, +0.37% in 1 month, and +1.77% in 3 months. Three months later, the Nasdaq-100 was higher just 53.2% of the time. Median return? Just +1.37%. The initial bounce can be deceptive. (2/3)
I was just looking at a similar data set, we’ll be talking about it on @tastyliveshow this afternoon
Hint: not great, Bob! 👇
Someone big must've gotten liquidated today. Tech stocks $QQQ have fallen into oversold territory for the first time in over 6 months.
Good news is that the Nasdaq 100 was higher 2 days out in 16 of 18 cases. But by day 10, the positivity rate dropped below 40%.
ALT Chart showing QQQ's RSI falling to oversold territory (≤30) for the first time in over six months. Historical data since 1999 shows the Nasdaq 100 was higher two trading days later in 16 of 18 cases, but the 10-day positivity rate fell to 27.3%.
Worth revisiting today
A more granular explanation: youtu.be/ctILegheoSA?is=Tkko…
Christopher Vecchio, CFA retweeted
The real risk is another leg lower. After a 9% drop, 47% of episodes saw another 5% decline within a month. During crises: 67.8%. Buyer beware. (4/4)
Christopher Vecchio, CFA retweeted
Yes. Many tariff fans like to pretend there was this magical alternate universe in which technocratic statesmen would swiftly enact a baseline global tariff without any chaos, carveouts, cronyism, or costs (here & abroad).
But that's not how tariffs work and never has been.
The year is 2026. You’re a New Yorker who doesn’t know that land doesn’t vote, only people do. So you post things like this.
Christopher Vecchio, CFA retweeted
#BREAKING | Incumbent Mike Lawler has conceded the NY-17 congressional race to Democrat Cait Conley before the race was called.
Details: pix11.com/news/local-news/re…
I've been asking around and have been told by multiple informed individuals that the issue has been identified and resolved, machines are coming back online across the county and NY-17. All ballots will be properly counted, etc.
I live in Westchester, the machines aren’t accepting ballots so they’re going to be counted by both Dems and Republicans and independent observers in a big room with oppressing fluorescent lights, the old fashioned way.
I just voted, it was smooth. Zero issues.
Go vote.
Christopher Vecchio, CFA retweeted
new election day record: the highest ever national average for gasoline and diesel prices ever on election day. $4.12/gal for gasoline, $6.28/gal for diesel.
Nasdaq-100 down over 9% from its October high. @tastylive study found 100 similar selloffs since 1986. The first bounce may not be the bottom. (1/4)