Public opinion, political data. Visiting senior fellow, German Marshall Fund Former director of political research at Pew Research https://nitter.cf/t.co/26XJFRBraQ
Washington, DC
Joined February 2010
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Carroll Doherty retweeted
I'm just gonna keep repeating this...
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Friends! Today, we'll be releasing our final poll @TheArgumentMag AND previewing the midterms with @NateSilver538, @galendruke, and @mattyglesias.
Please join us at 7:00 PM Eastern for a great conversation and a giant nerd-out over the midterms!
luma.com/xt3uy8gq
Carroll Doherty retweeted
in our poll, we asked our respondents both the generic ballot question as well as a question that piped in candidate names and party (e.g. what they'll actually see when voting). both give the same result on the margin.
our new @TuftsUniversity Public Opinion Lab national election poll is out today and we show Democrats with a 12-point lead in the national House vote among likely voters.
conducted with @YouGovAmerica.
link to toplines, crosstabs, and interactive analysis tool in the replies
After months of Trump raising doubts about election accuracy and security, a 54% majority of Republicans is very/somewhat confident about the election process, via @Gallup. That's way lower than the Democrats, but nearly 2X the share of Reps who expressed confidence in '24.
news.gallup.com/poll/716258/…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
New @brentbuc poll offers some empirical insight on this: "On where the party should go once Trump leaves office, [Rep] voters divide into three ~ equal camps: 32% want to keep Trump’s policies...31% want a traditional conserv direction, 29% want the party to move to the center."
Will the @nytimes @SienaResearch poll of Minnesota Senate - +14 for Democrat Peggy Flanagan - turn out to be an outlier? Maybe. But @Nate_Cohn's clear explanation of why it might be (or not) provides transparency too often lacking from pollsters.
nytimes.com/2026/10/28/upsho…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
The holy shit story of this election cycle: How the Dems orchestrated the double Dan Sullivan ballot in Alaska nytimes.com/2026/10/28/us/po…
Chicago is famous for the Cubs, Bears, deep-dish pizza and 'political dirty tricks' (now being used in Alaska)? wgntv.com/news/wgn-investiga…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Check it all out here, you'll want to bookmark this hub.nationaljournal.com/midt…
This is big. @pewresearch, which is very careful about this topic, finds higher religious observance among 18-22 year olds (41%) than among the public overall (33%). Lends credence to anecdotal reports of some churches seeing influxes of young adults.
pewresearch.org/religion/202…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
This is the consequence of a media culture where consumers expect news and information to find them. They assume, if they haven't heard of something, it must not be relevant to them. Rather than assuming it might be something they need to learn more about.
For the love of God, read your own tweet. You just started on these movies, so you didn’t know much about an indie filmmaker. That tracks. Yet you now that people who love these movies praise Cassavetes constantly in their Criterion Closet picks. SO WATCH A CASSAVETES MOVIE. Then watch another. And another.
I don’t want to put too much pressure on you, but he’s also a fine actor.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Some numbers that will be key for Democrats to remember in the aftermath of whatever happens next week:
3/4 of the vote was motivated by Trump, not the party.
Voters are no more likely to think Democrats have a governing plan than Republicans.
And while they think Rs make them worse off, similar #s of voters think Dems winning leaves them worse off vs. better off.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Here's a final installment in my series on how polls could go wrong next week. This time, I show evidence that pollsters may not be reaching enough Trump voters from red, rural areas
gelliottmorris.com/p/2026-10…
Excellent @WashPost profile of @CookPolitical and its intrepid leader @amyewalter. Through all of the changes in technology, the political envionment and its own leadership, Cook Political hasn't missed a beat. In fact, it's better than ever.
washingtonpost.com/politics/…
Israel is not a front-burner issue for most Americans - w/ the notable exception of progressive Democrats, writes @alexanderburns lookign at new @Politico survey.
"About two thirds of Americans said they did not know Israel was having an election."
politico.com/news/2026/10/28…
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Federal grand juries in the US typically indict at least 50,000 people a year. How many people do they *decline* to indict, as in the case of Cassidy Hutchinson?
In the latest year with data, it was six people nationally.
ALT Bar chart showing that federal grand juries in the United States routinely indict more than 50,000 people a year. The chart is based on a February 2026 Pew Research Center analysis of data from the Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts.
ALT Screenshot of a February 2026 Pew Research Center analysis about federal grand juries. The analysis notes that in the 2016 fiscal year, the most recent year with available data, federal grand juries declined to indict just six people nationally.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
SK w/ a good read here =>
Michigan and trade-offs: For Dems, el-Sayed's candidacy will likely solve a major problem they had in '24: Mass Arab-American and Muslim defections.
The 4 cities where this vote is most concentrated produced a plurality of >30k for Biden in 2020 but only 2,631 for Elissa Slotkin in the '24 Senate race -- which she won by just 19,006 votes over Mike Rogers statewide:
Democrats mostly on wrong side of public opinion on trans sports and gender affirming care for minors. Still, they hold such a wide lead on 'transgender rights' (not just LGBT issues) in recent @TheEconomist @YouGov.
yougov.com/en-us/articles/55…
Plus, over the past year, % of Hispanics who have an unfavorable view of ICE has risen 13 pts - from 54% to 67%.
pewresearch.org/short-reads/…
NEW: Views of ICE have turned more negative among Republicans and Democrats alike (even as a wide partisan gap remains). Americans view ICE more negatively than any of the other 11 agencies asked about in the latest @pewresearch survey.
ALT Bar chart showing Americans' views of 12 federal departments and agencies, based on a Pew Research Center survey of U.S. adults conducted in late September and early October.
Carroll Doherty retweeted
Dems have more midterm targets than they can afford — and they're sparring over where to spend the $$ they have.
More on the fault lines + early recriminations that could follow election day, w/@lisakashinsky, @LaurenFedor, @JasonBeeferman, @calenrazor
politico.com/news/2026/10/24…
