Chloe Chaplain

***BLOOMBERG BUDGET ANALYSIS*** John Healey’s modest budget achieved his main aim of avoiding an adverse market reaction. But the cost-of-living support is small and will be swallowed up by coming rises to bills. It is a long way off Andy Burnham’s pledge to rip up 40 years of neoliberalism and transform the economy. And it could be out-of-date within days if Trump escalates against Iran and causes another energy price shock. The question is: does this budget really meet voters’ expectations of the change Burnham is promising and mean Labour’s popularity continues to improve? Or will it mark a turning point as Healey struggles to live up to the PM’s rhetoric within the constraints of the manifesto, global headwinds and fiscal reality? The IFS characterises the budget as “lots of fiddling, short-term things.” The Resolution Foundation says Healey has “spread the jam thin.” Kemi Badenoch asks: “Is that it?” Will this narrative take hold, or will Britons continue to be won over by the force of Burnham’s personality? It also seems fair to ask what happened to his big ambitious ideas? There was not much on “public control” and nationalisation today. The council house building programme isn’t so revolutionary. There were no major reforms to council tax, capital gains tax, stamp duty, a land value tax, cutting the personal tax threshold, as he’s previously floated. Healey’s commitment to spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030 won immediate praise from Zelenskyy and NATO. But deferring the decision on how to fund it means the next year will be very tough for the government. The spending review and next budget look painful, with big welfare cuts and tax rises likely needed. The immediate fear in cabinet is Trump and Iran. UK officials believe it is likely the US military campaign is going to resume shortly. Resolution suggests that if there is serious escalation there it would wipe out Healey’s £15 billion headroom: “He doesn’t have enough to survive one bad roll of the dice.” It leaves Burnham’s fate in the hands of Trump. That gives a whole new meaning to his strategy of “hope.” With @PhilAldrick: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

BREAKING: John Healey says the UK will spend 3% of GDP on defence by 2030. Bloomberg reported on Saturday that defence officials wanted him to make that commitment at the budget:

EXCLUSIVE: John Healey’s bank tax rise will be temporary and come in at less than 8%, Bloomberg understands The hike is less steep than feared by the City Story on @TheTerminal with @Joe_Mayes @PhilAldrick

Andy Burnham told Trump Ukraine must have full access to Starlink in their call this afternoon. Comes as Musk again criticises Ukraine No10 readout:   "The Prime Minister spoke to the President of the United States of America Donald Trump today.   "The Prime Minister underlined the importance for Ukraine to have full access to Starlink so they can continue to defend themselves against Russia's full-scale invasion. The Prime Minister recognised the work of President Trump to bring Putin to the negotiation table and the leaders agreed to work together, alongside international partners to bring an end to the bloodshed.   "Turning to energy, the leaders welcomed the continued collaboration between UK and US companies, especially on nuclear power.   "The two leaders discussed the Energy Secretary's decision to approve Jackdaw. The leaders agreed on the significant benefits this will bring to the UK, boosting the economy and supporting jobs for British workers.   "Turning to the Falklands Islands, the leaders discussed the Sea Lion project. The Prime Minister raised the economic consequences of Argentina’s coercive measures for the UK and US and reiterated the importance of respecting the Islanders’ right to develop their natural resources.   “The leaders also discussed the situation in the Middle East, with the Prime Minister reaffirming the UK’s support for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in the face of hostile Houthi attacks.   "The two leaders look forward to seeing each other soon."

Top exclusive by @ChaplainChloe @josh_wingrove Andy Burnham scheduled to speak to Trump today as tensions on the Russia-Ukraine and Iran wars mount UK officials are concerned Trump is preparing for a new offensive against Iran which could further hamper energy flows and put upward pressure on inflation Britain wants Trump to pursue a diplomatic solution as a result, officials say It’s also the first time Burnham and Trump have spoken since Trump’s diesel deal with Putin