Civiq

The teams at @VoteHub and @Redistricter do really amazing work. Love to see this type of stuff coming online so fast.

🙏🙏

Since 2002, the 2025 Special Election (Prop 50) is the only statewide general or special election in CA where Republicans turned out a lower share of their registered voters than Democrats. If the 2026 General holds, it will be the second.

California just produced the most Dem-leaning electorate I can find on record, and it’s probably not done yet. Our ballot tracker is nearing 10M returned, probably about 70% of what the final electorate will end up being. A few million votes are still unprocessed or in transit to registrars after being mailed on or near Election Day. Based on historical trends, expect those to be just as Dem-leaning, if not more. Partisan lean of the electorate: 🔵 2026 General: D+25 (in progress) 🔵 2025 Special: D+24 🔵 2024 General: D+20 🔵 2022 General: D+20 🔵 2021 Recall: D+20

Thanks for having me on to talk about data! @NikkiLaurenzo @FOX40

Honored to join @DanCALmatters on @FOX40 tonight. Thanks for having me @NikkiLaurenzo!

Yesterday I joined @CColemanFoxNews on @FoxNews to talk about how AI is changing the way that campaigns operate, and how teams are using Civiq to do it. Thanks to Christina and the Fox News team for letting us share!

Like I told @EytanWallace on @FOX40 today: if you’re up in the early returns on election night in a close race, please, for the love of God, do not give the speech. Put the speech down. The late ballots can smell the confidence.

Here's two ways to digest that. One from @paulmitche11 and the @Political_Data tracker and one from @CiviqData. I like theirs because it shows returns as they were processed at that point in time: 5M on election eve in 2022 General. That’s how we actually experience an election: in real time, as the numbers come in. Ours is retroactive. It shows what counties ultimately marked as returned on that date about 6.0M. Put another way: we were 5.3M two days out in 2022, 6.0M the next day, and over 11M by the end. If we’re already past 6M processed returns today (before tomorrow’s reporting catches up), we’re heading into a very high turnout environment. You can essentially take today's number and nearly double it and then some. Tomorrow I won't be surprised when we hit over 7M and then when we get a retroactive look back in a few days post E-Day we'll see that it was even higher than that.

6M ballots on the tracker and counting. GOTV weekend hasn’t even fully landed yet. Here is my election hot take: we’re about to see the most votes ever cast in a California midterm.

This is the 2022 General and 2026 General raw returns compared (with our date of when a return was counted). We haven't even received updates from some counties yet today from the weekend, so you should anticipate that hockey stick to absolutely skyrocket over the next few days as we get stuff tomorrow and then post-election day ballots. Might end up being the most voters voting in a CA midterm ever?