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I am houred that @RUSI_org is drawing attention to my idea that may move the needle away from perpetual conflict in the Middle East. As I teach my students re the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community, leadership and the alignment of interests can change the world.
'With a Saudi normalisation with Israel high on the US wish list, and Saudi’s capacity to fund Gazan reconstruction, Saudi Arabia has what Trump craves in any deal – leverage' writes Michael Harris.
rusi.org/explore-our-researc…
Trump's move to counter lame duck status will likely be an attempt to change the constitution. No it won't be for a futile third term. Instead it'll focus on a question that could foreseeably achieve the Constitutional change threshold. Think two genders, flag burning etc.
The Iranification of The US with a Silicon Valley twist. Personally not a fan
Firing squad execution of mass killer to be livestreamed trib.al/BanJbP5
Cribstone Strategic Macro Website has added a "Fix Britain" policy ideas section. lnkd.in/p/et4Ptmt8
Mike Harris retweeted
The week's economy news with @CribstoneMacro.
- MPC holds rate as Medium-Term Program faces reality
- US sanctions Turkish bank and aviation middlemen
- Istanbul’s bridges go up for bid
- International cash flow monitor
- This week’s stat round-up
turkeyrecap.com/p/fortune-fa…
just listened to a comms expert saying X remains too relevant a platform to ignore. Reluctantly rescinding my previous "last post on Twitter" declaration. 😐
Mike Harris retweeted
Yarın açıklanacak Orta Vadeli Plan ekonomiyi kurtarır mı? Enflasyon nasıl düşer? Yıllardır Türkiye’yi takip eden stratejist Mike Harris cevapladı👉👉 youtu.be/pzXWvQZnLyc?si=gIAj…
Final post on Twitter. do look for Cribstonemacro at the logical competitor to Musk (belatedly responding to his firing my nephew with 2 days notice). I'll end with 8 policy recommendations for @andyburnham to help the UK get it's mojo back. youtu.be/dfEV-9vW1lg?si=N60g… via @YouTube
Donald Trump says US could ‘take the oil in Iran’ ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985… via @ft real risk Trump's grand vision will start a proxy war with China in Iran.
I am a fan of logic. If the justification of war was a fear that Iran would use ballistic missles and nuclear to threaten the world, it is preplexing that those who feared such reckless behavior from Iran did not imagine that they would be wanting and willing to close Hormuz 1/2
every country being asked to help open up traffic in the Straight of Hormuz should make this clear statement: "We are sending resources to the region to faciliate the flow of energy through Hormuz. As soon as the attacks on Iran stop, we will then activate those resources"
youtube.com/watch?v=MCAbN1Ul… In October 2024 I was interviewed by @cnbcKaren of @CNBC. I argued Iran's excessive response to Israel's attack on its Embassy in Syria meant geopolitical risk is generationally high. I also noted that Israel's focus on security over peace is a problem
I'm guessing Iran's regime has something the US & Israel have already maxed out on...leverage. If you start by killing the leader with the goal of a regime collapse, you remove space for negotiation. With regime risk elevated, the bias tilts towards reward with less regard for...
importantly disruption to the global economy. A regime facing existential threat does not worry about the negative consequences to Iran's economy from sustainably closing the straight of Hormuz and attacking global commerce. Unless the US and Israel offer a palatable path to...