Building an independent research desk and media studio Ο @0xTalks
Italy
Joined April 2021
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Hyperliquid and Lighter don't play in the same league, that's why one is valued $3.5B and the other $72B
One of the most obvious relative gap closing trades of all time
Judging by CT, I think maybe 12 people on earth are positioned for the potential that Lighter wins the CFTC and dex perp race
Upside is quite literally 20x+
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Voxam π retweeted
I knew a guy who spent most of his life helping other people build their businesses. These people became extremely successful, owned multiple ventures, and he was convinced that eventually they would bring him in and take care of him.
Except they never did. He spent some of his best years waiting to be lifted up instead of pursuing his own goals.
I think a lot of people in crypto have made a version of that same mistake.
They were sold the idea that simply being here meant they would eventually make it. Stick around long enough, own the right tokens, survive enough cycles, and your turn would come.
Meanwhile, an entire industry of KOLs reinforced that belief, jamming tokens down people's throats and creating a false sense of urgency every time the market moved higher. Every rally was another opportunity you supposedly couldn't afford to miss.
If you came to crypto from outside markets, a lot of this thinking was ridiculously childish. Participation isn't an edge. You need skill, good judgment, and some understanding of how unlikely extraordinary financial success actually is.
I think what's happening now is that after each cycle inflated the balloon a little less, people are finally starting to realize that nobody is coming to bring them along. They're not just upset about losing money. They're confronting the possibility that they spent years waiting for something that was never going to happen.
The people who made life-changing money were always the exceptions. Some were extraordinarily talented, some were lucky, and some were both. You find those people in every market.
The difference with crypto was that social media put those exceptions right next to everyone else. You could talk to them, follow their trades, and watch them get rich in real time.
And somewhere along the way, people confused being close to those outcomes with being likely to experience them themselves.
i've been trying to figure out why the 2026 drawdown feels so much more personal than 2018/2022 even though itβs not nearly as bad price wise. my take:
a lot of people on here have decided there's now a clock running. ai is coming, the door to escaping the middle class is closing, and if you haven't made it in the next couple years you're on ubi as a pleb forever.
i don't know if that's true. but it doesn't matter if it's true. people here believe it, so they're putting a deadline on themselves and when the market doesn't cooperate on that timeline it feels like theyβre missing the last train out of a burning town rather than βjust a bad few months but we can recoverβ
this also explains retails pivot to memes as a βfast trackβ to making it.
add instagram to the mix. 22 year olds in mansions and lambos all over your feed, most of them you suspect got there by rugging people like you.
envy is one of the strongest emotions there is, and envy plus a ticking clock is my guess to why we are seeing crash outs instead of just "this cycle sucks but weβre all in this together brosβ
it truly is diff now
Pearl is high on my research list for the next few weeks. IMO, the thesis looks stronger than $ZECβs, but the narrative and price have probably moved too far, too fast.
I expect extreme volatility, and I wouldnβt be surprised if the market eventually writes it off as a βdead project.β
If that happens and my research gives me conviction, I might take a shot.
I'm ready to wait months if necessary
AI X CRYPTO CROSSOVER: What Is Pearl And Why Is Everyone Suddenly Talking About it?
A newer friend of the show & Ethereum OG, Evan Van Ness joins us to discuss how useful-work could change data center economics, the flywheel behind cheaper inference, and why he believes the biggest opportunity is still ahead for AI-backed value.
pearl-2:native
@evan_van_ness @therollupco @prlnet
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In case you never built a proper AI watchlist: tradingview.com/watchlists/3β¦
Start with this one and make it yours
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not happening in the next 12 months
pearl has everything to prove and market got ahead of itself imho
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Let's openly scam people
seems a great idea
just started using @pumpfun app
i've been watching the timeline and seems like everyone winning is winning with the same strategy
> deploy a coin
> buy 50% supply (that pumps it to 7k mc only so it feels early)
> buy on pump app with main + make a callout
> sell on sides
> callout the bottom
> sell on main
starting with $10K on my main wallet and $10K on my sides, goal is to get the sides to $1M through raping charts and the main to $1M through callout rewards
let's fucking go π
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the funny thing about ex-eth maxis is that they will shill always $LIT over hyperliquid:native
The truth is Lighter will probably outperform HYPE going forward, but it carries a lot more risks too.
you can buy and forget HYPE, you cant with lit
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Want to take some chips off the table? Fair.
Want to de-risk? Fair.
Donβt want to buy at these levels? Understandable.
But shorting hyperliquid:native? Youβre asking to get rekt. Donβt get too comfy in those shorts.
After bitcoin:native, hyperliquid:native is probably the strongest name in crypto. It may not make you rich overnight, but I think patient holders will do very well.
Perps only started eating into TradFi about a year ago. We could have a decade of growth ahead.
Zoom out. Remember the vision.
He didnβt share the data, but I posted this on September 24 (borrowed from someone else). I didnβt have the conviction to hold the short with that anonymous $350M OTC buyer in the picture, but fundamentally, HYPE is more than fairly valued, and revenue slowed down too
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Voxam π retweeted
bitcoin showed remarkable resilience on a day of wild moves in markets
great to see thursday close above the 50 week moving average
Imagine buying Revolut at $115B val instead of $ETHFI at $0.5B val
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Voxam π retweeted
even though I've been rooting for Aerodrome to keep gaining overall DEX market share lately, I have nothing but the highest respect for Uniswap.
incredible how they've almost single-handedly kept eating market share from CEXs, now sitting at more than 31% of Binance's spot volume.
that makes Uniswap the #2 crypto exchange in the world, including all CEXs and DEXs.
let that sink in.
and it means even more when you consider how unfair the game actually is. CEXs are in a completely different position to exploit their advantages, and they do. shady backdoor deals and extractive market making give them nearly endless capital and capacity to compete.
DEXs have none of that. just a protocol living onchain, fully transparent, truly sticking to the crypto ethos. but they have the better product, and slowly but surely that's winning out.
we don't get a ton of success stories like this in crypto. but it's exactly these rare cases of real innovation that keep me going, regardless of bull or bear market.
incredible what we can build as an industry despite all the obstacles in our way. and long term, it's always good to be reminded that the good ones win.
love to see it, true inspiration for all builders out there that genuinely care about building something long lasting. the better product will always win, regardless how intimidating your competition and incumbents may look like.
job isn't done until we're at 100%.
THE GREAT PERP TRADE
Regardless of what happens in the midterms we have two more years of Selig in charge of the CFTC
By that time there will be far too much volume and embedded interest on platforms like hype / lighter to halt progress, so at least here the midterms don't matter. Any sell off is a gift
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This is the account you canβt miss if youβre interested in the AI trade
Thoughts from my Shanghai field trip
Sentiment among Greater China investors was far worse than I expected. Unlike the US market, A shares had not seen a single rebound since July. Still holding Chinese and Hong Kong AI stocks that had crashed and Korean memory stocks that had collapsed, investors kept pressing me on when memory would bounce back.
Many investors said the AI trade was over, and a few said they doubted whether even 2027 capex, not just 2028, would go ahead as planned.
Overall, the bearish sentiment was so strong that even I, a bull before coming to China, started to waver.
It got to the point where, faced with the bear case that memory prices could start falling in the third quarter of next year, I took it seriously and couldn't refute it.
As the conversations went on, I gradually began to understand where their pessimism was coming from. In the end, they were all asking the same question.
So what comes after AI coding? What will be the next engine of ARR for Anthropic and OpenAI?
Several candidates came up. AI4S, AI chip design, and so on... But none of them clearly convinced investors.
I couldn't offer a clear answer either. Sure, there are rumors that Anthropic has made major breakthroughs in both AI4S and AI chip design, but what we actually want to know is when any of that turns into money.
With AI4S, there could be beneficiaries right away, such as companies that sell lab monkeys or diagnostic kits. In fact, there already are. But while we can trade those names in the short term, what we ultimately want to know is whether Anthropic can make money by developing drugs. That is still several years away.
As for AI chip design, the TAM itself is hard to calculate, and even if you do calculate it, it is hard to monetize. That makes it difficult for the market to believe in.
Honestly, this feels like the hardest market in history. If a company isn't making money, selling makes sense. But right now the market sells even when companies are making money, even when they beat, and even when they say demand will stay solid all the way through 2028 and 2029.
So my recommendation to investors was to buy memory, and within memory, DRAM. Not because I have conviction in the DRAM cycle, but because I see it as a relatively defensive choice within the AI trade.
Memory stocks are now trading close to 1x P/B on 2027 BPS. Historically, memory stocks have staged technical rebounds when they fell below 1x P/B.
And even if the broader market falls further from here, the three DRAM makers will keep buying back their own shares. I thought that would guarantee a certain level of buying and concluded the stocks would have downside support.
Of course, I don't know whether memory stocks can break above their previous highs. That depends on whether sentiment across the broader market recovers. But I think there is a fairly good chance that memory outperforms the rest of the AI trade.
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A sinking ship
In 2000, 13 of the worldβs 50 largest companies were from the EU (including the UK, then a member). Today thereβs only one left: ASML.
The EU is no longer producing globally leading firms. Fixing that should be the priority of every major new EU policy, or the EU wonβt generate the wealth to sustain its social model.
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