
CPA | NFL DFS | Data-driven value analyst | Updated models each slate | Analytics only, not gambling advice | #NFLDFS Discord ⬇️ https://nitter.cf/t.co/kkZUHrQbIn
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Week 9 Favorite Tournament Plays 🏆
QB
- Malik Willis $5,100
This one is obvious and he will be highly owned but absolutely worth the play considering the matchup and flexibility his price provides. Favorite QB play despite expected high ownership.
- Kirk Cousins $5,300
Stay in the flames with Cousins this week. This game should be high scoring and they should be trailing. $5,300 is a steal for Cousins.
RB
- Kaelon Black $5,500
Everyone will be in on CMC and rightfully so. Black should have low ownership and could see more work with CMC nursing an injury. They have the highest TT on the slate which should result in run heavier game script.
- Dylan Sampson $4,900
My favorite DFS play on the week. NO has been atrocious against the run and Sampson should see checkdowns from Shedeur. Hes not well known to the public so should be low owned.
- Devin Singletary $4,600
Skattebo will be a gametime decision and if he sits, Singletary is an auto play. Will be higher owned than other two RBs but his price is impossible to ignore.
WR
- Caleb Douglas $4,200
A rookie WR who’s going to only get better as the season progresses. He has a great matchup and is not coming off a blow up game so should be low owned. This is his blow up game.
- Malachi Fields $3,700
Another rookie WR that showed some rapport with McCarthy last game. Philly has been awful against WR and he is the best value at the position.
TE
- Sam LaPorta $5,100
He is one of the higher priced TE this week but is coming off back to back low scoring games and could be overlooked. He has a fantastic matchup this week. Expect a bounce back performance against MIA.
Greg Dulcich $3,100
He is the value TE on the week considering his matchup. He has also seen consistent volume over the past three games with at least 5 targets in each. Should be lower owned as well.
Week 9 DFS Leverage Plays 📈
- Ashton Jeanty $5,900
He is going to be the most overlooked player on the slate. Coming off only 2 carries is going to hold some weight. He’s turning into more of a WR than RB for LV and they will need him this week as a 10 point underdog. Expecting him to bounce back with low ownership on the field.
- Kyren Williams $7,600
Blake Corum is getting all the buzz as of late and rightfully so. Kyren is still the #1 RB in LA and should be treated as such. He also has a bad matchup this week against WAS so he will be faded. Taking the RB1 for the Rams is always appealing and a great leverage opportunity this week.
- Harold Fannin Jr $4,700
Fannin was added the injury report late this week with a groin. He is coming off a monster game so won’t be totally overlooked. He provides as much upside as the high end TEs so he belong on this list. Shedeur loves his checkdowns and Fannin will exploit that.
- Jameson Williams $6,100
He’s in great form but has an awful matchup. The public will target Gibbs and LaPorta. ARSB is dealing with a rib injury which is always risky. Williams is a good leverage opportunity this week.
Full Week 9 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
2
31
3,347
Week 9. Six places we are going against the price.
TE George Kittle $6,000 over Brock Bowers $7,900
- Both of the expensive tight ends drew bad rooms this week. Bowers is walking into a San Francisco defense allowing the 24th most to the position. Kittle is walking into a Las Vegas defense allowing the 4th most, and he has four receivers out in front of him.
WR CeeDee Lamb $8,300 over Smith-Njigba $9,300 and Nacua $8,800
- Highest floor of the three and the cheapest of the three. Take the savings.
RB Christian McCaffrey $8,000 over Kenneth Walker $9,000
- A thousand dollars cheaper and they grade within two tenths. San Francisco holds the highest team total on the slate and is down four receivers. That volume goes somewhere.
WR Malik Nabers $7,300 over Nico Collins $7,200
- The widest gap anywhere at the top of our board. Philadelphia allows the second most fantasy points to receivers in the league.
WR Matthew Golden $7,000 over Chris Olave $7,400
- Cheaper and better. That is the entire argument.
QB Drake Maye $7,000 over Brock Purdy $6,800
- $200 apart on price. Not close on our board.
Full board: dfsledger.netlify.app/
Got to say I’m flattered
Week 9 DFS stacks 🪵
LV at SF
San Francisco holds the highest team total on the slate at 30.75 with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both likely out. The total has not moved, which tells you the market still expects the points. McCaffrey and Kittle take on the volume. Cousins and Bowers are the cheap way back from the Vegas side. Also love Jeanty as leverage plays although they’re considering last week letdown.
DET at MIA
Our favorite game this week, and Malik Willis at $5,100 is the entry point. Miami is a 7 point home underdog and 7 point home underdogs throw, which puts the cheapest real volume on the slate in his hands. Sam LaPorta is the other side of it at $5,100. Miami has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends in the league at 15.53 a game. Detroit at 28.75 with Gibbs and St. Brown fills in the rest, and Dulcich at $3,100 is the cheapest correlation on the board.
DAL at IND
Tied for the highest total on the main slate at 51.5. We are running it back with Javonte Williams despite 6.7 last week. Indianapolis is allowing 131.8 rushing yards a game at 4.9 a carry, and that did not change because of one bad Sunday. Pickens is questionable so Ryan Flournoy at $4,800 is the cheap way in. Taylor and Keenan Allen are the bring backs.
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Week 9 DFS stacks 🪵
LV at SF
San Francisco holds the highest team total on the slate at 30.75 with Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel both likely out. The total has not moved, which tells you the market still expects the points. McCaffrey and Kittle take on the volume. Cousins and Bowers are the cheap way back from the Vegas side. Also love Jeanty as leverage plays although they’re considering last week letdown.
DET at MIA
Our favorite game this week, and Malik Willis at $5,100 is the entry point. Miami is a 7 point home underdog and 7 point home underdogs throw, which puts the cheapest real volume on the slate in his hands. Sam LaPorta is the other side of it at $5,100. Miami has allowed the third most fantasy points to tight ends in the league at 15.53 a game. Detroit at 28.75 with Gibbs and St. Brown fills in the rest, and Dulcich at $3,100 is the cheapest correlation on the board.
DAL at IND
Tied for the highest total on the main slate at 51.5. We are running it back with Javonte Williams despite 6.7 last week. Indianapolis is allowing 131.8 rushing yards a game at 4.9 a carry, and that did not change because of one bad Sunday. Pickens is questionable so Ryan Flournoy at $4,800 is the cheap way in. Taylor and Keenan Allen are the bring backs.
Full Week 9 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
TNF DFS Showdown 🏆
- one of the only times I will ever recommend a DST as CPT. Jaguars DST $8,700 is my favorite CPT play in this game.
- Tuten will play tonight but could be limited with a foot injury. Chris Rodriguez $3,400 is a cheap alternative and provides much needed flexibility in the lineup.
- Derrick Henry $10,200 is the Baltimore piece to prioritize despite the tough matchup. BAL should feed the run game with a back up QB starting in a short week.
Week 9 spotlight: Malik Willis, $5,100
Two quarterbacks grade out ahead of him on our board this week. They cost $7,000 and $5,300.
The setup does the work here. Miami sits at an implied 21.8 as a 7 point home underdog, Detroit at 28.8. Teams that spend an afternoon trailing throw it, and Willis is the cheapest path to that volume on the slate.
Our floor on him is 7.92 with a ceiling of 16.33. At $5,100 you are barely paying for the ceiling, which is the entire point. The money you save here goes to running back, where the board is deepest this week.
Full Week 9 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 8 receipts. Every board we posted, every pick, what it scored, and the bar it had to clear to count.
CASH
bar: 20.9 QB / 13.3 RB / 13.1 WR / 10.3 TE
✅ Brock Bowers 28.2
✅ Josh Allen 27.6
✅ Puka Nacua 25.0
✅ Jahmyr Gibbs 24.8
✅ Trey McBride 20.2
✅ James Cook 18.1
✅ TJ Hockenson 15.8
❌ CeeDee Lamb 12.8
❌ Javonte Williams 6.7
❌ Jacoby Brissett 4.5
❌ Lamar Jackson 0.0
❌ Zay Flowers 0.0
TOURNAMENT
top 10 percent bar, much higher number to clear
✅ Puka Nacua 25.0
✅ Trey McBride 20.2
❌ Josh Allen 27.6
❌ CeeDee Lamb 12.8
❌ Bijan Robinson 7.6
VALUE
❌ Stevenson 12.0, Strange 7.5, Brissett 4.5, Tucker 0.0
Lamb missed cash by 0.3. Allen scored 27.6 and still missed the tournament
bar by 0.6. Value board was a shutout.
Week 9 boards Saturday.
334
DFS Ledger retweeted
Week 9 Pace Matchups
Average of both teams' seconds per snap *over the last 5 weeks*
🐇 Raiders at 49ers
🐇 Cardinals at Seahawks
🐇 Cowboys at Colts
🐢 Bills at Vikings
🐢 Buccaneers at Bears
🐢 Jaguars at Ravens
Week 8 DFS tournament board 🎯
QB
Josh Allen $7,700
RB
Bijan Robinson $8,500
WR
Puka Nacua $8,600
CeeDee Lamb $8,100
TE
Trey McBride $7,400
Full Week 8 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
13
1,732
Week 8 DFS value board 💵
QB
Jacoby Brissett $5,700
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson $5,600
WR
Tre Tucker $5,500
TE
Brenton Strange $4,000
Full Week 8 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
1
20
2,163
Week 8 DFS cash board 💰
QB
Josh Allen $7,700
Jacoby Brissett $5,700
Lamar Jackson $6,800
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs $9,500
James Cook III $7,900
Javonte Williams $7,300
WR
CeeDee Lamb $8,100
Puka Nacua $8,600
Zay Flowers $7,200
TE
Trey McBride $7,400
Brock Bowers $7,600
T.J. Hockenson $4,600
Full Week 8 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
3
20
2,620
Week 8 DFS stacks 🪵
Two games sit at a 54.5 total and nothing else on the slate clears 46.5. That is where the week starts.
BAL at BUF
A three point spread on the highest total of the week with both sides implied above 25. Josh Allen owns the top Ledger Score on the board and a ceiling well clear of the field. Run him with James Cook III and DJ Moore. Bring it back with Zay Flowers, who leads Baltimore in Ledger Score and gets Lamar Jackson back from the high ankle sprain. If DJ Moore sits, Keon Coleman is my favorite play on the slate.
ARI at DAL
Same total, different shape. Dallas is implied for 30.75, the highest team number of the week. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens with Dak Prescott is the straightforward build, and Javonte Williams has enough receiving work to belong in a shootout. The cheaper road is the Arizona side: Trey McBride and Michael Wilson with Jacoby Brissett.
LV at NYJ
The quiet one. A one and a half point spread is the tightest on the slate and the two implied totals sit a point and a half apart, so neither side gets scripted out of the game. Both quarterbacks are at or under $5,500. Kirk Cousins with Brock Bowers and Tre Tucker, brought back through Garrett Wilson or Omar Cooper Jr at near minimum price. This is the sneaky game on the slate with the most leverage opportunity this week.
Full Week 8 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
4
38
6,923
Which side of the trade would you prefer in redraft full PPR 12 team league?
31%Jonathan Taylor
69%Jefferson & Chase Brown
45 votes • Final resultsWeek 7 DFS tournament board 🎯
Brock Purdy $6,600
Jahmyr Gibbs $9,800
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800
Malik Nabers $6,800
Trey McBride $7,400
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
1
14
1,099
Week 7 DFS value board 💵
QB Kirk Cousins $5,800
RB Blake Corum $5,000
WR Malik Washington $4,900
TE Dalton Schultz $3,600
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 7 DFS cash board 💰
QB
Joe Burrow $6,900
Jordan Love $6,000
Brock Purdy $6,600
RB
Jahmyr Gibbs $9,800
Christian McCaffrey $7,600
Kyren Williams $7,000
WR
Amon-Ra St. Brown $7,800
Matthew Golden $6,000
Malik Nabers $6,800
TE
Trey McBride $7,400
Isaiah Likely $5,300
Tucker Kraft $4,700
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 7 DFS games to target and stacks to consider 🪵
GB at DET, 53.5
Three points clear of the slate, split 28.25 to 25.25. Green Bay draws the best matchup on my board at quarterback, receiver and tight end. Love at $6,000, Golden at the same price and Kraft at $4,700 all grade near the top. Favorite stack of the weekend is Love with Golden and Kraft. Gibbs carries the highest ceiling on the board, LaPorta at $4,800 is the cheap way into the other side.
SF at ATL, 49.5
Split 26.0 to 23.5. Purdy carries the highest quarterback ceiling on the slate and San Francisco has no healthy receiver worth rostering, so the stack is Purdy with Kittle and McCaffrey and nothing else. London is the bring back at $7,500 and under 12 percent owned. Penix at $5,300 is the cheapest real quarterback on the board at under 3 percent.
LAR at LV, 48.5
Split 25.75 to 22.75. Cousins at $5,800 is my best value quarterback on the slate and Tre Tucker at $5,200 owns the second best ceiling in his price tier, both under 5 percent. That is the cheapest stack on this list. Nacua did not practice Friday, a Sunday morning call at 27 percent. Kyren and Higbee at $3,500 are where that work goes if he sits, with no receiver behind him to take it.
Full Week 7 Ledger Scores
dfsledger.netlify.app
Week 6 Ledger results.
Cash 7 of 12
Value 3 of 4
Leverage 1 of 4
Tournament 0 of 5
Carnell Tate 19.0 at $5,000, 6.9 percent owned.
Blake Corum 14.0 at $4,800, 3.9 percent owned.
Season to date on cash: 23 of 36.
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