Dani Mckdani

Anthropic to release S-1 IPO filing at 9 AM EST It’s really happening

That's some break out on the Nvidia CDS

Coreweave CEO Michael Intrator says the market is acting irrationally by selling his stock. A run through SEC filings reveals Michael Intrator has been “acting irrationally” as well, selling $907 million worth of $CRWV shares this year alone. His cofounders Brian Venturo and Brannin Mcbee have also been acting irrationally. The trio has sold a combined $3.3 billion of stock since the IPO. Venturo is the second biggest insider seller of any American company this year. Their benefactors at Magnetar Capital have also been acting irrationally. They have sold more than $5.5 Billion of Coreweave stock since the IPO. A lot of people seem to be acting very irrationally.

Yup... Nvidia's circular financing Ponzi is imploding. $NVDA

Why is the overall market so fixated on $CRWV's imminent demise? At the peak of the Dot Com bubble, $CSCO - the largest company in the world, and the $NVDA equivalent of the era - generated about 10% of its revenue from circular deals through vendor-financed startups. When those startups lost access to capital, $CSCO's revenue growth went from +66% to -30% within a few quarters, and the stock lost 80% of its value. The same story played out across the dot com supply chain, sending the Nasdaq down 80%. Today, $CRWV alone makes up roughly 8% of $NVDA GPU sales. Losing that demand is enough to nuke $NVDA's growth story all by itself. Oh, and $CRWV isn't an isolated example - every major neocloud is hemmoraghing cash and borrowing costs are going UP across the board. If you lose the neoclouds, you lose the incremental growth driver for marginal data center capacity, and the AI capex trade goes up in smoke. That's why we're seeing carnage across the entire AI supply chain, from $CAT and $GEV to $MU, $AVGO and more recently $NVDA. This is what the beginning of the end of a debt-fueled, circular-financed capex bubble looks like.

Citadel：Leo，聽說你回來了

We've got HomeView at home

Save this. This is the most important post you'll ever see. With BOTH the 10-year yields and the U.S. dollar rising, here is how to plan for the worst-case scenario. I've experienced this market scenario already in my life. Markets kept making all-time highs for 4 - 5 months, and then a -57% crash happened in the markets. But rising yields and dollar rising does NOT crash the markets alone. Something UNDERNEATH is typically the trigger. The 2026 - 2027 triggers would be: 1. Private credit - this is the scarier one in my opinion. Seven major platforms (Blue Owl, Apollo, Ares, BlackRock, and Blackstone) have capped or blocked investor withdrawals. $4.6 billion is trapped basically. 2. Auto loan delinquencies hit a record - 5.5% at 90+ days, worse than 2008 peak (5.3%). The consumer is cracking at the bottom. 3. Commercial real estate is at record deliquicieis - office CMBS delinquiency at 12.3%, higher than 2008 crisis. 4. Corporate bankruptcies at 16 year highs - 372 large filings through mid-2026. Small business bankrupties up 50% as well. 5. S&P 500 is looking a lie right now - every sector fell in Sept except for tech - banks, utilities, equal weight S&P 500, only a few BIG tech names are holding up the markets 6. Six banks have failed in 2026 - small ones, but the most in any year this decade. I find that the pattern is the same throughout our history; rates stay high, something that was relying on cheap money can't handle it, then that thing breaks, the break spreads to other things, and by the time the Fed cuts rates to fix it, the damage is already done. So how do you prepare for this since we cannot TIME a top? 1. Raise cash gradually - don't sell everything. Don't go all-in on a few names. Raise cash from work and you'll have the opportunity of a life time waiting for you when the dip comes 2. Buy the 10 year - a 5.35% risk free yield is the highest in 24 years. You can park cash in short term Treasuries (SHV, BIL, SGOV) and get paid 5%+ while you wait. My wife and I have started buying 10 year as well. 3. Watch the leaders, not the index - the S&P is being held up by 5-7 names. When $NVDA, $AAPL, $MSFT start breaking lower on volume, that's your signal the last pillar is cracking. The rest of the market is already weak. 4. Avoid the junk, or size appropriately - small caps, unprofitable tech, high debt companies, anything that needs to refinance soon. The Russell 2000 has a third of its constituents classified as zombie companies. These get destroyed when credit tightens. 5. Quality over momentum - if you're staying long, own companies with no debt, strong cash flow, and pricing power. Think $GOOGL, $AMGN, $BRK. Companies that don't need to borrow money at 5%+ don't care about rates. 6. Don't short the top - the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. In 2007 the S&P rallied 5% for 4 months after the 10Y peaked. Being early on a short is the same as being wrong. Can hedge with defensives instead and/or raise cash. 7. Have a plan before you need one - decide now what you'll do if the S&P drops 10%, 20%, 30%. Write it down. When panic hits, you execute the plan instead of making emotional decisions. The goal isn't to predict the crash. It's to survive it with enough capital to buy the bottom and become a multi-millionaire.

3 times the charm?!? 10x in 5y. $IDT

Right before the 2000 dot-com crash, the S&P rallied 12% to reclaim its previous highs... Those who went max long because “the internet is the future” were right, but still lost 50% over the next 2 years. To make sure every last bull stayed in (and then got wiped out), we had 3 separate 20% bear market rallies... Only after everyone was fully shaken out did we bottom in 2002. It then took ~14 years just to break even on a nominal basis... And by that point, most were too scarred to fully participate in the next bull run. Lesson: Don't participate in historically overvalued markets, especially not when that overvaluation coincides with the biggest crisis in human history