THE BALL FINDS DRUMMOND 🧲
11/10 | NBA BEST BET #2 🏀
1U | Andre Drummond OVER 6.5 Rebounds
(+104) | Novig
#NewYorkForever
Andre Drummond is one of those players who can come off the bench, play 15 minutes and still grab 8-10 rebounds. The man is a ball magnet, and that’s exactly why I’m interested in this line against Milwaukee.
Drummond has cleared 6.5 rebounds in 6/9 games this season, averaging 7.8 rebounds. But when you actually look into the games he missed, the minutes tell a much better story.
His two games with fewer than 10 minutes played resulted in just 2 and 3 rebounds. Take those games out, and here’s what we’re looking at:
Drummond in 10-24 minutes:
✅ 14 REB
✅ 8 REB
✅ 11 REB
✖️ 6 REB
✅ 9 REB
✅ 9 REB
✅ 8 REB
6/7 Cleared | 9.3 RPG
He’s also averaging 13.1 rebound chances in those games, compared to his season average of 11.1. That’s what I like most here. Even in limited playing time, he’s consistently putting himself in position to grab rebounds.
And another thing I love about this spot is Karl-Anthony Towns. We all know KAT can get himself into foul trouble. He’s had that tendency throughout his career, and that’s something that could benefit Drummond tremendously. If KAT picks up a couple of early fouls, who’s getting those extra minutes at center? Andre Drummond. I’m not banking on foul trouble, but it’s definitely another factor that could push Drummond beyond his normal rotation.
Now let’s talk about Milwaukee because this matchup is absolutely beautiful for a rebounder like Drummond.
The Bucks rank:
• 29th in opponent rebounds
• 30th in opponent offensive rebounds
• 27th in rebounds allowed to centers
• 5th in pace
Milwaukee has been getting killed on the glass, particularly on the offensive boards. That’s a great matchup for somebody whose entire game revolves around rebounding and physicality inside.
Similar bigs vs Milwaukee:
✅ Neemias Queta — 9 REB (7.5)
✅ Jarrett Allen — 11 REB (8.5)
✅ Joel Embiid — 11 REB (8.5)
✅ Alexandre Sarr — 9 REB (7.5)
✖️ Rudy Gobert — 10 REB (10.5)
✖️ Deandre Ayton — 4 REB (5.5)
8/10 similar-player entries cleared their respective lines.
The Knicks are also 15.5-point favorites, so there’s definitely blowout potential here. That could work in Drummond’s favor if he gets additional run off the bench. Between that and the possibility of KAT getting into foul trouble, there’s a realistic opportunity for Drummond to see more minutes than usual.
The only thing that concerns me is the playing time. We’ve already seen what happens when he barely touches the floor, and he did finish with 6 rebounds in one game with normal bench minutes. But if he gets his usual rotation, I love his chances of getting to 7.
We’re getting plus money on one of the best rebounders of his generation against a team that’s been struggling to keep opponents off the glass. And if KAT happens to pick up a few early fouls? Even better.
I’ll take that every time.
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THE BREAKOUT BEGINS 📈
11/10 | NBA BEST BET #1 🏀
1U | Darryn Peterson OVER 17.5 Points
(-123) | ProphetX
#TakeNote
I’m 0-1 on Darryn Peterson props this season, and here I am again LOL. But man, I really like the situation he’s walking into against Miami. He’s starting to find his rhythm offensively, and with Utah dealing with multiple injuries, this could be an opportunity for him to take another step forward.
Look at his last two performances:
✅ 21 PTS vs Mavericks (30 MIN)
✅ 26 PTS vs Timberwolves (35 MIN)
That’s 23.5 PPG over his last two, shooting 17/33 from the field and 7/15 from three. He’s coming off a career-high 26 against Minnesota, where he attempted 21 shots and knocked down four threes. That’s the type of aggression I want to see from him, especially with the current situation in Utah.
Keyonte George is OUT. Jaren Jackson Jr. is OUT. Lauri Markkanen is QUESTIONABLE.
That’s a lot of offensive production potentially missing from this lineup, especially with George sidelined. I expect Peterson to have more responsibility handling the ball, creating his own looks, and being aggressive offensively. Even if Markkanen plays, George being out should give Peterson more opportunities.
Now Miami isn’t necessarily an easy matchup across the board. They rank #6 defending PnR ball handlers, which is important considering Peterson generates 42% of his points in those situations. But there are areas of this defense I think he can attack.
Miami ranks #29 against ATB3 looks, #26 in the paint shooting zone, and #29 defending isolation plays. Peterson’s offensive profile is heavily built around his pull-up game (49%), and he’s shown recently that he’s comfortable creating his own shot rather than relying strictly on others.
Similar guards against Miami this season:
✅ Darius Acuff Jr. — 32 PTS (25.5)
✅ Stephen Curry — 29 PTS (28.5)
✅ Darius Garland — 26 PTS (22.5)
✅ Luka Doncic — 42 PTS (33.5)
✅ Austin Reaves — 27 PTS (22.5)
✅ Andrew Nembhard — 22 PTS (16.5)
✖️ Malik Monk — 9 PTS (10.5)
10/15 similar guards have cleared their respective lines against Miami.
Peterson has only cleared this number in 2/5 games, so I’m not ignoring the inconsistency. Miami has capable perimeter defenders, and their PnR defense is a legitimate concern. But I’m betting on the recent improvement, the increased offensive responsibility, and the opportunity created by Utah’s injuries.
He’s the #2 overall pick for a reason, and we’re finally starting to see him put together some strong performances. I want him to continue being aggressive, especially with this team needing somebody to step up offensively.
DP, you got me once already. Don’t do it again. 😂
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November 9th, Recap 🧾
2-3 | -1.34U
✅ 1U | Yaxel Lendeborg O27.5 Points + Rebounds (-119)
✅ 1U | James Cook O84.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
✖️ 1U | Ausar Thompson O11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-111)
✖️ 1U | Justin Jefferson O6.5 Receptions (+106)
✖️ 1U | Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+160)
Hardest thing is following up a solid day before.. Get it back cmon🤝
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NOVEMBER 9th, DAILY CARD 🏀🏈
$30 To Someone Who LIKES ♥️ If We Go 5-0!
1U | Ausar Thompson O11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-106)
1U | Yaxel Lendeborg O27.5 Points + Rebounds (-119)
1U | Justin Jefferson O6.5 Receptions (+106)
1U | Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+160)
1U | James Cook O84.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
❤️ IF TAILING!
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1
1
228
Yaxel Lendeborg o27.5 Pts+Reb✅
My rookie do everything right l!
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YAXEL, JUST HOOP 🎯
11/09 | NBA BEST BET #2 🏀
1U | Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 27.5 Points + Rebounds
(-117) | Novig
#DubNation
I’m pretty much throwing out those two Lakers games when looking at Yaxel Lendeborg. I know some people won’t agree with that, but there was just too much going on between him and Luka Doncic. All the trash talk, media attention, and trying to prove himself against one of the best players in basketball. He even admitted he took things a little too far with his comments. In my eyes, those games weren’t a good representation of how he’s been playing.
Take those two games away, and look at the production:
✅ 31 P+R vs Memphis
✅ 35 P+R vs Phoenix
✅ 43 P+R vs Denver
✅ 35 P+R vs Minnesota
✅ 41 P+R vs LA Clippers
✖️ 21 P+R vs Phoenix
✖️ 25 P+R vs Miami
✅ 31 P+R vs Orlando
6/8 CLEARED | 32.8 P+R AVG
Now he gets a New Orleans Pelicans team that has struggled defensively, especially around the basket.
New Orleans ranks:
• 24th in Defensive Rating
• 4th in Pace
• 29th in Opponent Paint Points
• 25th in Restricted Area Defense
• 23rd in Transition Defense
The pace is a big part of why I like this matchup. More possessions should give Yaxel opportunities to score and rebound, and New Orleans hasn’t exactly been protecting the paint.
Lendeborg is averaging 21.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG while playing 32.2 minutes with a 25% usage rate. He’s also putting up 14.1 field goal attempts per game.
What really interests me is his rebounding involvement. He’s averaging 12 rebound chances per game, including 2.6 offensive rebounds. New Orleans ranks 30th against shots within 10 feet according to PropsMadness, so I like the opportunities for him to attack the basket rather than having to rely on jumpers all night.
Similar forwards against New Orleans:
✅ Jaden McDaniels — 29 P+R (22.5)
✅ Jonathan Kuminga — 25 P+R (20.5)
✅ Lauri Markkanen — 31 P+R (28.5)
✅ Cameron Boozer — 27 P+R (25.5)
✖️ Derrick Jones Jr. — 12 P+R (15.5)
✖️ Rui Hachimura — 17 P+R (22.5)
8/15 CLEARED | 53.3% HIT RATE
It’s not a perfect matchup history, and I don’t want to ignore that Yaxel has only cleared this line twice in his last five games. His production has been inconsistent recently, especially on the glass.
But I still like the spot. He’s shown he can consistently get into the 30s when he’s playing his normal game, and this Pelicans defense presents opportunities both in transition and around the rim.
With the pace New Orleans plays at and how vulnerable they’ve been inside, I think this is a great spot for Yaxel to put together another 30+ P+R performance. Give me the over here.
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❌ Carson Wentz.. Wow
12 targets 3 catches, at some point somebody has to save one of the best recievers in football. Wasting his time in Minnesota
JUST GET HIM THE BALL!
11/09 | BEST BET #3🏈
1U | Justin Jefferson OVER 6.5 Receptions
(+106) | FanDuel
#SKOL
Carson Wentz said this week that he wants to get Justin Jefferson the football, and I actually believe him. Why? Because we’ve already seen him do exactly that.
Remember Week 1 against Green Bay? Kyler Murray went down in the 1Q, Wentz stepped in, and Jefferson finished with 8 receptions on 9 targets for 92 yards and 2 TDs. Wentz found Jefferson for both touchdowns and helped Minnesota erase a double-digit deficit.
To me, Wentz is a CLEAR upgrade over Murray, especially when it comes to getting Jefferson involved. He’s already shown he’s willing to feed his best receiver, and now he’s publicly saying that needs to happen more often. I don’t think those comments were just for the media.
The season numbers aren’t pretty:
4.7 receptions per game
6.8 targets per game
22.4% target share
30.4% first-read target share
1/6 games clearing 6.5 receptions
But that first-read share is what catches my attention. Jefferson is still the primary option in this passing attack. The opportunities haven’t translated into enough production, and I think Wentz gives him a much better chance to change that tonight.
Buffalo is also an interesting matchup. The Bills play zone on 79% of their defensive snaps, while Jefferson has averaged 2.48 YPRR against zone compared to 2.11 against man. Buffalo ranks 24th against opposing WRs in receptions, so this isn’t a matchup I’m necessarily afraid of attacking.
We’ve seen other receivers find success against Buffalo this season:
✅ Puka Nacua — 17 receptions
✅ Amon-Ra St. Brown — 9 receptions
✅ Nico Collins — 7 receptions
✖️ Romeo Doubs — 6 receptions
✖️ Ladd McConkey — 4 receptions
3/5 cleared | All five had at least 4 receptions.
The biggest concern is obviously the Vikings offense itself. Jefferson has only cleared this number once this season, and even with Wentz starting against Chicago, he finished with just 3 receptions. We also have Hockenson and Addison competing for targets.
But I’m banking on the upgrade at quarterback making a difference. Buffalo’s offense can put points up quickly, and I think Minnesota will have to throw the football to keep pace.
Wentz knows who his best receiver is. He said he wants to feed him, he’s shown he’s willing to do it, and I think we see a much more involved Justin Jefferson tonight.
At +106, I’m willing to take that chance.
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6
381
Any engagement chats out there?
I know it may not do much but trying to get back into a few. Lmk🤝
1
4
334
James Cook o84.5 Rush Yds ✅
Toon 30 carries but .. HE WENT WELL OVER🔥👏👏
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LET COOK EAT TONIGHT 🦬
11/09 | BEST BET #4🏈
1U | James Cook III OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards
(-122) | Novig
#BillsMafia
Man, I know Minnesota has one of the best defenses in football, but I absolutely love this matchup for James Cook. Especially after digging into the rushing schemes.
Here’s what really caught my attention.
Buffalo’s Rushing Attack:
Man Concepts: 60% | 5.33 YPC
Zone Concepts: 40% | 5.06 YPC
Minnesota’s Run Defense:
Man Concepts Faced: 8%
Zone Concepts Faced: 92%
Minnesota has faced zone rushing concepts on 92% of opposing rush attempts this season, while Buffalo operates primarily through man concepts. That’s an interesting contrast considering Cook averages 5.33 YPC on man runs.
Now, Minnesota ranks 1st defensively against man runs and 2nd against zone, so I’m not pretending this is some weak run defense. But the difference in scheme usage stands out to me, especially with how efficient Buffalo has been running the football.
The Bills rank 1st in rushing EPA, and Cook has been one of the most productive backs in football.
101 rushing yards per game
19.7 carries per game
5.1 yards per carry
16.7% explosive rush rate
4/7 games OVER 84.5
And despite Minnesota’s defensive rankings, we’ve already seen talented running backs put up serious numbers against them.
✅ Jahmyr Gibbs — 153 YDS
✅ Jonathan Taylor — 95 YDS
✅ Ollie Gordon II — 100 YDS
✖️ Bucky Irving — 46 YDS
✖️ Alvin Kamara — 12 YDS
✖️ D’Andre Swift — 45 YDS
8/14 similar-player overs have cleared against Minnesota.
Gibbs and Taylor are the two performances that really stand out to me. Both showed that Minnesota’s defensive success hasn’t completely shut down productive rushing attacks.
The Vikings are allowing 4.56 yards per carry, rank 10th in rushing EPA, and 29th against opposing RB rushing yards according to PropsMadness.
Their overall defensive numbers are excellent, but there’s a difference between how dominant they’ve been against the pass and what we’ve seen against the run.
I also understand the concern surrounding Dion Dawkins. He hasn’t practiced all week and is in danger of missing tonight’s game. Alec Anderson is questionable as well, which could leave Buffalo short-handed up front.
That’s a legitimate concern against a Brian Flores defense ranking 2nd in havoc created. I’m not ignoring that.
But I still love the matchup.
At Minnesota’s average of 4.56 yards allowed per carry, Cook would need roughly 19 attempts to clear this line. He’s already averaging 19.7 carries per game.
And with Minnesota ranking 1st in passing EPA and passing success rate, I expect Buffalo to make its rushing attack a significant part of the game plan.
The biggest concern is game script. If Minnesota builds an early lead and Buffalo has to abandon the run, Cook’s opportunities could take a hit.
But if this game stays competitive and Cook gets his usual workload, I really like his chances.
We’ve already seen what backs like Gibbs and Taylor have done against this defense. Cook has the workload, efficiency, and explosiveness to put together another strong performance.
I’m riding with Cook tonight.
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NOVEMBER 9th, DAILY CARD 🏀🏈
$30 To Someone Who LIKES ♥️ If We Go 5-0!
1U | Ausar Thompson O11.5 Rebounds + Assists (-106)
1U | Yaxel Lendeborg O27.5 Points + Rebounds (-119)
1U | Justin Jefferson O6.5 Receptions (+106)
1U | Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+160)
1U | James Cook O84.5 Rushing Yards (-122)
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4 straight POTD winners! Going for 5 tonight with Justin Jefferson! 🏈
🎯 PROPHETX PICK OF THE DAY
1U | Justin Jefferson Anytime TD (+160)
📊 POTD Record: 4-1 | +3.13U
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LET COOK EAT TONIGHT 🦬
11/09 | BEST BET #4🏈
1U | James Cook III OVER 84.5 Rushing Yards
(-122) | Novig
#BillsMafia
Man, I know Minnesota has one of the best defenses in football, but I absolutely love this matchup for James Cook. Especially after digging into the rushing schemes.
Here’s what really caught my attention.
Buffalo’s Rushing Attack:
Man Concepts: 60% | 5.33 YPC
Zone Concepts: 40% | 5.06 YPC
Minnesota’s Run Defense:
Man Concepts Faced: 8%
Zone Concepts Faced: 92%
Minnesota has faced zone rushing concepts on 92% of opposing rush attempts this season, while Buffalo operates primarily through man concepts. That’s an interesting contrast considering Cook averages 5.33 YPC on man runs.
Now, Minnesota ranks 1st defensively against man runs and 2nd against zone, so I’m not pretending this is some weak run defense. But the difference in scheme usage stands out to me, especially with how efficient Buffalo has been running the football.
The Bills rank 1st in rushing EPA, and Cook has been one of the most productive backs in football.
101 rushing yards per game
19.7 carries per game
5.1 yards per carry
16.7% explosive rush rate
4/7 games OVER 84.5
And despite Minnesota’s defensive rankings, we’ve already seen talented running backs put up serious numbers against them.
✅ Jahmyr Gibbs — 153 YDS
✅ Jonathan Taylor — 95 YDS
✅ Ollie Gordon II — 100 YDS
✖️ Bucky Irving — 46 YDS
✖️ Alvin Kamara — 12 YDS
✖️ D’Andre Swift — 45 YDS
8/14 similar-player overs have cleared against Minnesota.
Gibbs and Taylor are the two performances that really stand out to me. Both showed that Minnesota’s defensive success hasn’t completely shut down productive rushing attacks.
The Vikings are allowing 4.56 yards per carry, rank 10th in rushing EPA, and 29th against opposing RB rushing yards according to PropsMadness.
Their overall defensive numbers are excellent, but there’s a difference between how dominant they’ve been against the pass and what we’ve seen against the run.
I also understand the concern surrounding Dion Dawkins. He hasn’t practiced all week and is in danger of missing tonight’s game. Alec Anderson is questionable as well, which could leave Buffalo short-handed up front.
That’s a legitimate concern against a Brian Flores defense ranking 2nd in havoc created. I’m not ignoring that.
But I still love the matchup.
At Minnesota’s average of 4.56 yards allowed per carry, Cook would need roughly 19 attempts to clear this line. He’s already averaging 19.7 carries per game.
And with Minnesota ranking 1st in passing EPA and passing success rate, I expect Buffalo to make its rushing attack a significant part of the game plan.
The biggest concern is game script. If Minnesota builds an early lead and Buffalo has to abandon the run, Cook’s opportunities could take a hit.
But if this game stays competitive and Cook gets his usual workload, I really like his chances.
We’ve already seen what backs like Gibbs and Taylor have done against this defense. Cook has the workload, efficiency, and explosiveness to put together another strong performance.
I’m riding with Cook tonight.
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JUST GET HIM THE BALL!
11/09 | BEST BET #3🏈
1U | Justin Jefferson OVER 6.5 Receptions
(+106) | FanDuel
#SKOL
Carson Wentz said this week that he wants to get Justin Jefferson the football, and I actually believe him. Why? Because we’ve already seen him do exactly that.
Remember Week 1 against Green Bay? Kyler Murray went down in the 1Q, Wentz stepped in, and Jefferson finished with 8 receptions on 9 targets for 92 yards and 2 TDs. Wentz found Jefferson for both touchdowns and helped Minnesota erase a double-digit deficit.
To me, Wentz is a CLEAR upgrade over Murray, especially when it comes to getting Jefferson involved. He’s already shown he’s willing to feed his best receiver, and now he’s publicly saying that needs to happen more often. I don’t think those comments were just for the media.
The season numbers aren’t pretty:
4.7 receptions per game
6.8 targets per game
22.4% target share
30.4% first-read target share
1/6 games clearing 6.5 receptions
But that first-read share is what catches my attention. Jefferson is still the primary option in this passing attack. The opportunities haven’t translated into enough production, and I think Wentz gives him a much better chance to change that tonight.
Buffalo is also an interesting matchup. The Bills play zone on 79% of their defensive snaps, while Jefferson has averaged 2.48 YPRR against zone compared to 2.11 against man. Buffalo ranks 24th against opposing WRs in receptions, so this isn’t a matchup I’m necessarily afraid of attacking.
We’ve seen other receivers find success against Buffalo this season:
✅ Puka Nacua — 17 receptions
✅ Amon-Ra St. Brown — 9 receptions
✅ Nico Collins — 7 receptions
✖️ Romeo Doubs — 6 receptions
✖️ Ladd McConkey — 4 receptions
3/5 cleared | All five had at least 4 receptions.
The biggest concern is obviously the Vikings offense itself. Jefferson has only cleared this number once this season, and even with Wentz starting against Chicago, he finished with just 3 receptions. We also have Hockenson and Addison competing for targets.
But I’m banking on the upgrade at quarterback making a difference. Buffalo’s offense can put points up quickly, and I think Minnesota will have to throw the football to keep pace.
Wentz knows who his best receiver is. He said he wants to feed him, he’s shown he’s willing to do it, and I think we see a much more involved Justin Jefferson tonight.
At +106, I’m willing to take that chance.
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YAXEL, JUST HOOP 🎯
11/09 | NBA BEST BET #2 🏀
1U | Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 27.5 Points + Rebounds
(-117) | Novig
#DubNation
I’m pretty much throwing out those two Lakers games when looking at Yaxel Lendeborg. I know some people won’t agree with that, but there was just too much going on between him and Luka Doncic. All the trash talk, media attention, and trying to prove himself against one of the best players in basketball. He even admitted he took things a little too far with his comments. In my eyes, those games weren’t a good representation of how he’s been playing.
Take those two games away, and look at the production:
✅ 31 P+R vs Memphis
✅ 35 P+R vs Phoenix
✅ 43 P+R vs Denver
✅ 35 P+R vs Minnesota
✅ 41 P+R vs LA Clippers
✖️ 21 P+R vs Phoenix
✖️ 25 P+R vs Miami
✅ 31 P+R vs Orlando
6/8 CLEARED | 32.8 P+R AVG
Now he gets a New Orleans Pelicans team that has struggled defensively, especially around the basket.
New Orleans ranks:
• 24th in Defensive Rating
• 4th in Pace
• 29th in Opponent Paint Points
• 25th in Restricted Area Defense
• 23rd in Transition Defense
The pace is a big part of why I like this matchup. More possessions should give Yaxel opportunities to score and rebound, and New Orleans hasn’t exactly been protecting the paint.
Lendeborg is averaging 21.2 PPG and 7.2 RPG while playing 32.2 minutes with a 25% usage rate. He’s also putting up 14.1 field goal attempts per game.
What really interests me is his rebounding involvement. He’s averaging 12 rebound chances per game, including 2.6 offensive rebounds. New Orleans ranks 30th against shots within 10 feet according to PropsMadness, so I like the opportunities for him to attack the basket rather than having to rely on jumpers all night.
Similar forwards against New Orleans:
✅ Jaden McDaniels — 29 P+R (22.5)
✅ Jonathan Kuminga — 25 P+R (20.5)
✅ Lauri Markkanen — 31 P+R (28.5)
✅ Cameron Boozer — 27 P+R (25.5)
✖️ Derrick Jones Jr. — 12 P+R (15.5)
✖️ Rui Hachimura — 17 P+R (22.5)
8/15 CLEARED | 53.3% HIT RATE
It’s not a perfect matchup history, and I don’t want to ignore that Yaxel has only cleared this line twice in his last five games. His production has been inconsistent recently, especially on the glass.
But I still like the spot. He’s shown he can consistently get into the 30s when he’s playing his normal game, and this Pelicans defense presents opportunities both in transition and around the rim.
With the pace New Orleans plays at and how vulnerable they’ve been inside, I think this is a great spot for Yaxel to put together another 30+ P+R performance. Give me the over here.
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LET TWIN WORK!
11/09 | NBA BEST BET #1 🏀
1U | Ausar Thompson OVER 11.5 Rebounds + Assists
(-106) | Novig
#DetroitBasketball
I really like this spot for Ausar tonight, especially with Jalen Duren OUT. Without Duren controlling the glass, Ausar has been taking on more rebounding responsibility, and that’s exactly what I want to see against a Washington team that has struggled to keep opponents off the boards.
Ausar is averaging 13.4 R+A this season, clearing this line in 5/8 games. But the numbers without Duren are what caught my attention.
Without Jalen Duren:
✅ 4/6 cleared
13.8 R+A per game
14.3 rebound chances per game
9.2 potential assists per game
26 minutes per game
His six totals in that stretch: 8, 17, 14, 10, 20, 14.
Washington ranks #29 in opponent rebounds and #26 in R+A allowed by position, according to PropsMadness. That matchup stands out when you consider Ausar’s activity on the glass. He’s consistently putting himself in position for rebounds, and with Duren sidelined, those opportunities become even more important.
The passing numbers are encouraging too. Averaging 9.2 potential assists without Duren tells me he’s getting opportunities to create for teammates. I’m not relying strictly on his rebounding here, even though that’s where I see his biggest advantage.
Similar Players vs Washington:
✅ Dyson Daniels — 21 R+A (13.5 line)
✅ Luguentz Dort — 11 R+A (4.5 line)
✅ Aaron Wiggins — 7 R+A (4.5 line)
✖️ CJ McCollum — 7 R+A (7.5 line)
9/15 cleared | 60% hit rate in the similar-position sample.
My biggest concern is Ausar’s minutes. His playing time hasn’t always been consistent, and when filtering his Duren-out games to 23–33 minutes, he’s cleared in 3/5. So I definitely want him staying involved throughout this game.
Still, this is a favorable matchup for someone as active as Ausar. Washington’s rebounding struggles, Duren’s absence, and the opportunities Ausar has been getting on the glass make 12 combined rebounds and assists a number I’m comfortable attacking.
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November 8th, Recap 🧾
3-2 | +1.07U 💰
✅ 1U | Jonah Coleman O55.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
✅ 1U | Dalton Schultz O15.5 Longest Reception (-116)
✅ 1U | Raiders/49ers O51.5 (-106)
✖️ 0.5U | Jonah Coleman O59.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
✖️ 1.17U | Jonathan Taylor O61.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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NOVEMBER 8th, SUNDAY CARD 🏈
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1U | Jonah Coleman O55.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
0.5U | Jonah Coleman O59.5 Rushing Yards (+120) 🪜
1.17U | Jonathan Taylor O61.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
1U | Dalton Schultz O15.5 Longest Reception (-116)
1U | Raiders/49ers O51.5 (-106)
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1
7
938
Raiders/Niners o51.5✅✅
4 STRAIGHT ON PROPHETX ! 🔥🔥
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🎯 PROPHETX PICK OF THE DAY
1U | Las Vegas Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers OVER 51.5 (-105)
📊 POTD Record: 3-1 | +2.18U
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6
565
Dalton Schultz o15.5 Longest Reception ✅
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🏈 11/08 | BEST BET #3
1U | Dalton Schultz OVER 15.5 Longest Reception
(-116) | ProphetX
#HTownMade
Really liking this spot for Schultz against the Chargers. He’s cleared this line in 5/7 games this season, averaging 17.7 yards on his longest reception. His weekly results are 18, 35, 17, 7, 14, 16, and 17. What stands out even more is his involvement in Houston’s offense. Schultz leads the Texans with 43 targets, averaging 6.1 per game while commanding an 18.5% target share. He’s been one of the most consistent options in this passing attack.
The Chargers matchup is what caught my attention. Los Angeles ranks 28th in aDOT allowed to tight ends and 28th in YAC per reception allowed to the position. They’re also ranked 24th against TE longest receptions, allowing an average of 17.7 yards. Schultz isn’t necessarily a deep threat, but he’s capable of picking up yards after the catch, and the Chargers have shown some vulnerability in that area. With the volume he’s getting, I like his chances of breaking off a 16+ yard reception.
The one concern is how close some of his recent clears have been to this number. Three of his five hits landed at 16, 17, and 18 yards, so there isn’t much room for error. Similar tight ends have also cleared their respective lines in just 5/12 matchups against Los Angeles. Still, Schultz’s involvement in this offense is what gives me confidence here.
Similar TEs vs Chargers:
✖️ Tyler Higbee — 14 Yards
✖️ Davis Allen — 6 Yards
✅ Travis Kelce — 24 Yards
✅ Noah Gray — 31 Yards
✅ Evan Engram — 34 Yards
✖️ AJ Barner — 12 Yards
✖️ Elijah Arroyo — 0 Yards
✖️ Dawson Knox — 5 Yards
✅ Dalton Kincaid — 24 Yards
✖️ Michael Mayer — 10 Yards
✅ Trey McBride — 27 Yards
✖️ Elijah Higgins — 0 Yards
5/12 Similar TEs Cleared Their Lines
📊 Research @PropsMadness
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Jonah Coleman o55.5 Rush Yds✅
🪜O59.5 Rush Yards ❌
Basically split profit🤝
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THE BACKFIELD BELONGS TO COLEMAN 🐎
11/08 | NFL BEST BET #1 🏈
1U | Jonah Coleman OVER 55.5 Rushing Yards
(-106) | Novig
🪜0.5U | Jonah Coleman 60+ Rushing Yards
(+120) | Novig
#BroncosCountry
I really like the spot Coleman finds himself in this week against Carolina. Since being activated off IR, the rookie has wasted no time taking control of Denver’s backfield, and I don’t see Sean Payton changing much after what we’ve seen these last two games.
Since Returning From IR:
Week 7: 9 carries | 54 rushing yards
Week 8: 11 carries | 41 rushing yards
What really stands out to me is how quickly Coleman has separated himself from J.K. Dobbins. Against Kansas City, Coleman played 41 offensive snaps compared to just 13 for Dobbins, outcarried him 11-7, and handled all six of Denver’s red-zone carries.
And it’s not just the rushing opportunities. With RJ Harvey on IR, Coleman has also become a big part of Denver’s passing game. Last week against Kansas City, he caught 4 passes for 63 yards, including a massive 51-yard reception late in the fourth quarter that set up his own game-winning touchdown.
That tells me a lot about the trust Denver already has in this rookie. Whether they’re running the ball or throwing it, Coleman is becoming the guy they want on the field.
Now we get a Carolina defense that has struggled defending the run all season.
Panthers Defensive Rankings:
#30 | Rushing Yards Allowed
#28 | Yards Per Carry Allowed
#31 | Defense vs RB
#26 | Rushing Attempts Allowed
Another matchup advantage is Carolina’s tendency to defend the run with zone. The Panthers have played zone on 87% of their charted rushing plays, while Coleman is averaging 5.61 yards per carry against zone compared to 3.36 against man.
That’s a matchup I’m willing to attack, especially with Coleman beginning to establish himself as Denver’s primary back.
Recent RBs vs Carolina:
✅ Bucky Irving: 106 rushing yards
✅ D’Andre Swift: 124 rushing yards
✅ Kyle Monangai: 100 rushing yards
✅ Quinshon Judkins: 70 rushing yards
✖️ Josh Jacobs: 39 rushing yards
✖️ Jahmyr Gibbs: 46 rushing yards
Overall, 7 of the 13 listed RB performances cleared their respective rushing props against Carolina.
The obvious concern is Coleman hasn’t cleared either of these numbers yet this season. He’s 0/4 against 55.5, and even since returning from IR, he’s finished with 54 and 41 rushing yards.
But I’m not approaching this play based on previous hit rates. I’m looking at the changing workload, the trust he’s earned from the coaching staff, and an opponent that’s been vulnerable on the ground.
Dobbins is still involved, and that’s something we have to respect. But what I really like is Coleman’s involvement regardless of how Denver chooses to attack. Even if the Broncos find themselves in passing situations, Coleman has shown he can stay on the field and contribute. That doesn’t directly help his rushing total, but it gives him more opportunities to remain involved throughout the game.
As for the ladder, I’m keeping it simple. The main position is OVER 55.5 at 1U, with another 0.5U on Coleman reaching 60+.
We’re only asking for four additional yards on the second play, and with the matchup Carolina presents, I think there’s enough upside to take that chance at plus money.
He’s already shown he can get close to this number without a massive workload. Now he gets a favorable matchup with an opportunity to build on the role he’s earned.
I’m trusting the rookie to take advantage of it. Let’s climb. 🪜
📊 Research @PropsMadness
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6
520
NOVEMBER 8th, SUNDAY CARD 🏈
$30 To Someone Who LIKES ♥️ If We Go 5-0!
1U | Jonah Coleman O55.5 Rushing Yards (-106)
0.5U | Jonah Coleman O59.5 Rushing Yards (+120) 🪜
1.17U | Jonathan Taylor O61.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
1U | Dalton Schultz O15.5 Longest Reception (-116)
1U | Raiders/49ers O51.5 (-106)
❤️ IF TAILING!
#GamblingX | #NFL | #BettingX
Three straight POTD winners! Let’s keep it rolling with some NFL action today. 🏈
🎯 PROPHETX PICK OF THE DAY
1U | Las Vegas Raiders vs. San Francisco 49ers OVER 51.5 (-105)
📊 POTD Record: 3-1 | +2.18U
New users can TRADE $40, GET $40 with code DAIJON!
🔗 prophetx.onelink.me/Z8Ks/DAI…
✅ Game Lines & Player Props
✅ Action Across Multiple Sports
✅ Competitive Pricing
✅ Live Nationwide
#GamblingX #ProphetX
ONE CATCH IS ALL WE NEED 🎯
🏈 11/08 | BEST BET #3
1U | Dalton Schultz OVER 15.5 Longest Reception
(-116) | ProphetX
#HTownMade
Really liking this spot for Schultz against the Chargers. He’s cleared this line in 5/7 games this season, averaging 17.7 yards on his longest reception. His weekly results are 18, 35, 17, 7, 14, 16, and 17. What stands out even more is his involvement in Houston’s offense. Schultz leads the Texans with 43 targets, averaging 6.1 per game while commanding an 18.5% target share. He’s been one of the most consistent options in this passing attack.
The Chargers matchup is what caught my attention. Los Angeles ranks 28th in aDOT allowed to tight ends and 28th in YAC per reception allowed to the position. They’re also ranked 24th against TE longest receptions, allowing an average of 17.7 yards. Schultz isn’t necessarily a deep threat, but he’s capable of picking up yards after the catch, and the Chargers have shown some vulnerability in that area. With the volume he’s getting, I like his chances of breaking off a 16+ yard reception.
The one concern is how close some of his recent clears have been to this number. Three of his five hits landed at 16, 17, and 18 yards, so there isn’t much room for error. Similar tight ends have also cleared their respective lines in just 5/12 matchups against Los Angeles. Still, Schultz’s involvement in this offense is what gives me confidence here.
Similar TEs vs Chargers:
✖️ Tyler Higbee — 14 Yards
✖️ Davis Allen — 6 Yards
✅ Travis Kelce — 24 Yards
✅ Noah Gray — 31 Yards
✅ Evan Engram — 34 Yards
✖️ AJ Barner — 12 Yards
✖️ Elijah Arroyo — 0 Yards
✖️ Dawson Knox — 5 Yards
✅ Dalton Kincaid — 24 Yards
✖️ Michael Mayer — 10 Yards
✅ Trey McBride — 27 Yards
✖️ Elijah Higgins — 0 Yards
5/12 Similar TEs Cleared Their Lines
📊 Research @PropsMadness
Use Code ‘DAIJON’ for 25% off your first purchase!
#GamblingX | #NFL | #BettingX





















