Daniel Silke

The impact of AGOA is a sideshow when compared to the damage we ourselves have inflicted on the economy amongst which poor policy choices, governance failures and patronage excesses are the chief culprits.

The AGOA exclusion occurs just as South Africa and the US move into a state of political flux. The potential of a weakened Republican Party and ANC can shift policy & orientation in both nations. Not to mention global trade rebalancing & new market opportunities.

South Africa simply cannot afford more coalition instability in its heartland metros. For this reason, the composition & practice of new governing local governments will be the litmus test of broader economic recovery or a reversion to decline.

SA's Local Elections are about more than pot-holes, refuse, water & power. This is local poll with fundamental national political (and economic) implications concerning stable coaltion-building and policy execution. If cemented locally, it can enhance the national outcome.

This is the key issue that will determine South Africa’s immediate political and economic future. You either cement the current national GNU or you revert to statism and populism. It’s the ANC’s awkward - and divisive choice to make.

As local elections approach, it's worth repeating that if we want South Africa to work, we need local government - and our growing cities - to work. It starts with the local environment but requires expert co-ordination with national as well.

As South Africa approaches a pivotal local election day, the country faces a slew of political parties consumed with vindictiveness, racial invective & patronage (rent) seeking. None of the above will grow the country and provide jobs and opportunity for its citizens.

If polling holds up, the ANC will be faced with a stark choice. In its weakened form, it either has to expand the existing GNU arrangement (with the DA) down to local or choose an alternative path that excludes the DA. This is a key choice that will impact every aspect of SA.

For the ANC, centralising coalition talks away from the regions is an important step to expanding the existing GNU parameters to local government. But, it's politically risky and the ANC may find it damagingly divisive given its own leadership contests & weakening support levels.

South Africa really has to stop praising the mediocrity of 1% GDP growth. The #MTBPS2026 provides a veneer of macro-stability but still fails to show how we break out of the low growth trap. Better financial management is welcome, but key policy & ideological issues remain.

#MTBPS2026 is a positive spin on a tough macro-environment as SA moves towards local elections. But, the welcome relief on fuel levies & Debt will have minimal immediate impact on a country with a weak state & low growth. Macro sentiment better but the lived experience unchanged.

There will be nothing easy about post-LGE SA. But for the ANC -potentially weakened further - they face leadership change & strategic decisions on who to coalesce with. Neither is clear-cut.

Polling points to ANC & DA voters embracing co-governance at local level. The key challenge will be for the ANC to convince its local formations that a GNU-type national structure should be replicated at local level. It may be the only workable option given deep polarisation.

South Africa will entrench political fragmentation with a frustrated electorate lacking enthusiasm for any alternative. Sounds a bit like large parts of the democratic world!

Given opinion polls, the ANC has gained nothing from the GNU despite the stable administration it has brought. While voters tend to approve ANC/DA co-operation, the DA scores moderately while the ANC continues its decline. Ditching the GNU won't restore the ANC's glory either.

The fact that the ANC's only good news in this entire local election season is that their disputed 181 candidates may now stand, shows just how weak their broad public platform - and physical campaign - has hitherto been.

Although premature, an MK without Jacob Zuma at the helm, will test the party’s internal cohesiveness as well as its electoral support. Potential for vote shedding to other parties - with perhaps the EFF the greater beneficiary. KZN will remain a complex battleground.

If #SouthAfrica is to have more coalition governments after its local elections in Nov, the model cannot be a repeat of the absolute mess so many existing councils are in. Dysfunction dare not repeat itself or replicate further.

A worsening security crisis impacts real lives, raises community tensions, undermines critical security, further weakens the State and damages investor sentiment. Perhaps South Africans should prioritise this in their political protests & lobbying as local elections loom.

#SouthAfrica political parties take note. Elections will not be won by vindictiveness, racist rhetoric & insulting voters. SA requires a constructive set of best-practice alternatives to reboot a multitude of faliures. Voters will punish negatvity without positive solutions.