DT

On today's episode of The Interview, our guest is @DannyT1502, an active Polymarket Trader Keep reading to hear what DT has to say, this is very well packed! Hello DT, how are you doing today? I'm doing great thanks, looking forward to some football (soccer) on the weekend! How did you get into Crypto? I first got in via NFTs during that insane NFT bullrun, unfortunately it was pretty much the pico top for most coins but it was a needed learning experience for this cycle. When and How did you stumble upon Prediction Markets? I stumbled upon Polymarket at the end of 2023, it was shilled in CC2's discord and I made my first bet on the LayerZero airdrop not happening. Did not expect for Polymarket to blow up like it did during the election period but the rest is history. How’d you describe Prediction Markets to anyone who’s just hearing about it? I would say it is an all in one hub for wanting to know the likelihood of any major event occurring. It is one of the few products that has a real chance of bridging the gap between web 2.0 and crypto. Also, the diversity in markets is constantly growing and I think the recent improvement in sports event liquidity will rival sportsbooks in the near future. What single biggest advantage do Prediction Markets bring to the average person? You don't have to love sports or love politics to get involved, there is literally something that everyone can speculate on. New markets are introduced daily, meaning that there is always something fresh that may pique your interest. What markets narratives do you actively trade or prefer to trade? Mainly crypto related markets or sports markets. My biggest edge is being deeply immersed in both. But typically I try to find inefficiencies regardless of the market, this can be via arbitrages, market making etc (and yes manually) What’s your base thought process to approaching these trades? My thought process is normally ordered; read the rules, search for similar markets to understand the actual probability (in sports this may be vs sportsbook odds), can I extract value from the trade?, who are my counterparties (search top holders and their pnl, check activity tab and recent price direction), check when the trade expires and map out my hold time vs returns to understand the r/r. Can you give an overview on what tools you use, what metrics you like to look at and what conditions prompt you into entering a trade? I'm quite self sufficient so I don't really track anybody, i just have some familiarity of who is smart money when i look in the activity tab. Apart from that I do use Polyalerthub for TG alerts on my orders but don't feel the need to over complicate things, just familiarise yourself on the site (what markets exist in the niches you would trade in) and put in the work, not everything has to be a gamble. What are some of your worst losses and how did that impact how you trade? I think I've had a few bad gambles on football games but apart from that i try to remain risk averse. I have shifted more attention to LP'ing which is definitely risky and does lose me money sometimes, especially since I'm not at my screen 24/7, however, I just accept any losses as part of the risk and do my best in minimizing them whilst bolstering my stats and profits. Can you also give an overview on your Liquidity Provision strategy? My strategies will not work for everyone and there is definitely no single best strategy. But in playing it safe I tend to go for less competitive markets (not the highest rewards), typically less volume, park my orders behind walls or at the same price as them Sometimes I move mine closer to midpoint and orders stack on mine, mine fill first since i LP'd at that price first and then i can sell on the stacked orders with no loss - I don't normally have the need to do this and will look for orderbooks/markets that I have a good chance of selling for profit but i guess that's a quick exit tactic lol For anyone who’s new and looking to do this, how’d you describe how they do it? Start with smaller amounts on lower rewards markets and learn through experience. Choose markets you don't mind holding if you do get filled. The aim is not to avoid getting filled, although sometimes that helps, but to learn through practice what is the most efficient way to earn rewards. On the flip side, what’s an underexplored/underrated concept within Prediction Markets? Hmm i think arbitrages remain underrated. Most people think they can fast track their way via bots and tools but most don't cover the rules of each market which is the most important dynamic. Reading the title alone doesn't help and a lot of niche arbitrages still exist. I think sports value betting is also considerably under the radar but I don't want to spoil too much Where do you see the overall Prediction Market ecosystem in say, 12 months from now? I can't speak on the ecosystem as a whole since other prediction markets will become irrelevant, but I see Polymarket fully integrated as a global name for wanting to check the likelihood of any event. It has the ability to replace the news, the weather, sportsbooks and many other outlets that we won't expect. What accounts would you recommend people follow to get familiar with Prediction Markets in general? I would say to start with the @PolymarketTrade account and then check out its feed to see which Prediction market related content suits your interests. Anything else you’d like to share? I think we covered a lot and hopefully someone reading gained more interest in wanting to explore or trade on Polymarket!