🤖Data-driven originator with models for ⚾️MLB ,🏀CBB, 🏈NFL, CFB | 🚀DataFriends to the Moon | Host of the BEST ON X tournaments
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🚨 Best on X NFL Gauntlet - Week 8 Results
@Stugotzz27 wins the week at +4.13u with a perfect 5-0 card. @Etoft21 holds 1st overall (+11.05u). @Stugotzz27 sits 2nd at +10.88u, @LuCo_94 3rd at +9.40u.
Full season standings in the graphic.
Week 9 picks go in the comments⬇️
🚨 Best on X NFL Gauntlet - Week 7 Results
@LuCo_94 wins the week at +3.75u. @Etoft21 holds 1st overall (+11.18u). @LuCo_94 sits 2nd at +10.56u, @Stugotzz27 3rd at +6.75u.
Full season standings in the graphic.
Week 8 picks go in the comments⬇️
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/6
🔷 SMU -5.5 vs Virginia Tech (model -6.96)
🔷 Nevada +10 vs New Mexico (model +8.2)
SMU was -6.5 in this morning's First Look post. The re-pull has it at -5.5, so the play stays on the card at a better number - don’t love the line move against us though… Nevada +10 is unchanged.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🔷 SMU -5.5 vs Virginia Tech
- SMU averages 318 passing yards per game, tied for 7th in the country. Virginia Tech ranks 78th in passing yards allowed per game and 82nd in yards allowed per attempt.
- Kevin Jennings has thrown for 2,414 yards with 21 touchdowns and 5 interceptions at a 73.7% completion rate. He has not thrown an interception since September 26.
- SMU is 5-0 at home this season. Virginia Tech starting left tackle Justin Terry missed Tuesday practice with an injury from the Maryland game and is uncertain, and SMU has 23 sacks and 58 tackles for loss in 8 games.
🔷 Nevada +10 vs New Mexico
- New Mexico has scored exactly 21 points in 3 straight games after averaging 43.4 points per game in its first five. Quarterback Toa Fa'avae has 1 touchdown pass and 6 interceptions in those 3 games, and New Mexico threw for 94, 92 and 111 yards in them.
- Nevada allows 156.9 passing yards per game, 8th in the country, and holds opponents to 30.3% on third down.
- New Mexico starting center Kaden Robnett is out, with the starting left guard shifting to center. Preseason Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Jaxton Eck has missed 3 straight games and is out again. New Mexico has also made just 6 of 12 field goals this season.
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/5
🔷 Southern Miss +13.5 vs James Madison (model +12.78)
Congrats if you grabbed the early lean: Southern Miss +14 this morning. That line has moved half a point in your favor to +13.5
Florida Atlantic +6.5 was the other lean this morning, but UTSA has moved out to -7 and Florida Atlantic no longer meets the best bet filters at the new number, so it is off the official card.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🔷 Southern Miss +13.5 vs James Madison
- James Madison star running back George Pettaway, who leads the Sun Belt with 824 rushing yards, is expected to miss his second straight game. Starting safety Jayon Harvey and red-zone target KD Mosley are also expected out.
- JMU has lost two straight games in overtime and committed 5 turnovers against Troy last week. The Dukes have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 games as a favorite, and this is their third straight Thursday game with no bye until November 21.
- Southern Miss has scored 35 points in back-to-back wins. Jamarice Wilder and Steven Robinson have combined for 554 rushing yards and 7 touchdowns in those two games, both going over 100 yards in each game.
👀 Dataman First Look 👀
Thursday update: the full CFB Week 10 board is re-priced at this morning's numbers - 23 leans in the graphic.
Two go tonight, and both sit inside the official filters: Florida Atlantic +6.5 and Southern Miss +14. The Southern Miss line came in half a point from +14.5 yesterday. Nothing else on the CFB board moved.
The NFL board joins the daily leans post starting today. For Week 9 that is one game at this morning's numbers - Browns +3 on Sunday.
As always, the official best bets posts go up a couple hours before kickoff with the screenshot of the actual model dashboard.
Leans only - not official plays.
#GamblingX #CFBPicks #NFLPicks
👀 Dataman CFB First Look 👀
Wednesday update: 23 leans left on the Week 10 board at this morning's numbers. Arizona moved from -8.5 to -9.5, Navy from -7 to -7.5, Penn State fell off the board, and Florida Atlantic is new on Thursday. Tonight's three MAC games all price outside the model's filters, so this card starts Thursday.
📅 Thursday:
🔷 Florida Atlantic +6.5 (model +4.88)
🔷 Southern Mississippi +14.5 (model +12.82)
📅 Friday:
🔷 SMU -6 (model -6.96)
🔷 Nevada +9.5 (model +7.85)
🔷 Arizona -9.5 (model -10.03)
📅 Saturday:
🔷 Texas -2.5 (model -2.54)
🔷 Alabama +5.5 (model +4.25)
🔷 Miami (FL) +5.5 (model +4.69)
🔷 Baylor -9.5 (model -9.6)
🔷 Kansas State +4.5 (model +3.22)
🔷 Connecticut +6.5 (model +5.04)
🔷 North Carolina State +4.5 (model +4.13)
🔷 Appalachian State -4.5 (model -5.06)
🔷 South Carolina -7 (model -8.15)
🔷 Houston -11 (model -12.87)
🔷 Georgia Southern -10 (model -11.4)
🔷 Navy -7.5 (model -7.58)
🔷 Kansas -2.5 (model -2.63)
🔷 North Texas -16.5 (model -17.22)
🔷 Louisiana -8.5 (model -9.54)
🔷 Georgia Tech +14.5 (model +13.78)
🔷 New Mexico State +17.5 (model +15.84)
🔷 Oregon State -6.5 (model -6.53)
The official best bets post goes up a couple hours before kickoff on game day with a screenshot of the actual model dashboard.
Leans only - not official plays.
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
I’m going to keep proceeding as usual, but worth noting that the morning leans are now 3-0 against the flips when I post the official best bets later in the day. Something to monitor if you see the leans start shifting in our favor throughout the day!
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/3
🔷 Ohio -13 vs Akron (model -13.42)
🔷 Miami (OH) -6.5 vs Buffalo (model -8.03)
Congrats if you grabbed the early leans: Akron +14.5 this morning. That line has moved massively in your favor, all the way through our number to Ohio -13, and the model is on the other side now for the official best bets. Last time this happened we took the L. Hopefully not this time.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🏈🚨 Dataman CFB BEST BETS 11/3
🔷 Ohio -13 vs Akron (model -13.42)
🔷 Miami (OH) -6.5 vs Buffalo (model -8.03)
Congrats if you grabbed the early leans: Akron +14.5 this morning. That line has moved massively in your favor, all the way through our number to Ohio -13, and the model is on the other side now for the official best bets. Last time this happened we took the L. Hopefully not this time.
More data/stats for each game in the thread below 🧵
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🔷 Ohio -13 vs Akron
- Akron is 0-4 in the MAC and has been outscored 135-74 in those four games. The Zips rank 127th in scoring offense (19.0 points per game) and 128th in scoring defense (32.8 allowed).
- Akron lost its starting quarterback in September. Brayden Roggow has 9 interceptions against 7 touchdowns, and the Zips have allowed 22 sacks. Nick Poulos has 5 touchdowns and no interceptions in his last three games for Ohio.
- Ohio has held four straight opponents to 20 points or fewer and averages 192.4 rushing yards per game. Akron's defense has four sacks all season.
🔷 Miami (OH) -6.5 vs Buffalo
- Buffalo has rushed for 217 yards per game over its last five, with Messiah Burch over 100 yards in all five. Miami allows 95.1 rushing yards per game, top 15 nationally, and has held four straight opponents to 85 or fewer.
- Buffalo's passing game gives it no second option if Miami slows the run down. Miami averages 6.4 yards per play, and Caleb Heavner threw for 221 yards in his fourth career start last week.
- Miami won this matchup 37-20 last season and has won three of the last four meetings.
👀 Dataman CFB Week 10 First Look 👀
27 leans at Tuesday morning numbers, starting with MACtion tonight. We’ll refresh this list every morning with the full remaining board, which will reflect updated data/line moves.
📅 Tuesday:
🔷 Akron +14.5 (model +13.42)
📅 Thursday:
🔷 Southern Mississippi +14.5 (model +12.79)
📅 Friday:
🔷 SMU -6 (model -6.93)
🔷 Nevada +9.5 (model +7.87)
🔷 Arizona -8.5 (model -10.04)
📅 Saturday:
🔷 Texas -2.5 (model -2.54)
🔷 Alabama +5.5 (model +4.26)
🔷 Miami (FL) +5.5 (model +4.65)
🔷 Baylor -9.5 (model -9.61)
🔷 Kansas State +4.5 (model +3.19)
🔷 Connecticut +6.5 (model +4.93)
🔷 North Carolina State +4.5 (model +4.17)
🔷 Appalachian State -4.5 (model -5.04)
🔷 South Carolina -7 (model -8.15)
🔷 Houston -11 (model -12.74)
🔷 Georgia Southern -10 (model -11.42)
🔷 Navy -7 (model -7.6)
🔷 Penn State +2.5 (model +1.81)
🔷 Kansas -2.5 (model -2.62)
🔷 North Texas -16.5 (model -17.22)
🔷 Louisiana -8.5 (model -9.39)
🔷 Georgia Tech +14.5 (model +13.73)
🔷 New Mexico State +17.5 (model +15.82)
🔷 Oregon State -6.5 (model -6.54)
The official best bets post goes up a couple hours before kickoff on game day with a screenshot of the actual model dashboard.
Leans only - not official plays.
#GamblingX #CFBPicks
🚨 DATAMAN MONDAY LEDGER 🚨
CFB Best Bets: 6-13 (-7.5u) - disaster in CFB this week but still green on the season.
10/27 ❌ Sam Houston +5 (3-24 L)
10/28 ❌ New Mexico State +3.5 (0-24 L)
10/30 ✅ Charlotte +8.5 (31-38 W)
10/30 ❌ Kent State -7 (10-31 L)
Saturday:
10/31 ✅ Texas Tech -3.5 (34-26 W)
10/31 ✅ Illinois -2.5 (20-17 W)
10/31 ✅ Liberty -13.5 (49-10 W)
10/31 ✅ Minnesota +20.5 (16-23 W)
10/31 ✅ San Jose State +14.5 (16-21 W)
10/31 ❌ Western Michigan -14 (23-10 L)
10/31 ❌ Auburn +11.5 (15-45 L)
10/31 ❌ Florida +11.5 (8-27 L)
10/31 ❌ TCU -6.5 (22-16 L)
10/31 ❌ North Dakota State -24.5 (31-7 L)
10/31 ❌ Oklahoma -3.5 (25-42 L)
10/31 ❌ Appalachian State +5.5 (3-19 L)
10/31 ❌ Florida State -6 (24-36 L)
10/31 ❌ Ohio State -6.5 (18-30 L)
10/31 ❌ Boise State -10.5 (46-45 L)
Season: 36-31 (+1.7u)
Lifetime: 240-171 (+47.2u)
NFL Best Bets: 2-1 (+0.8u)
11/1 ✅ Bills -3 (36-10 W)
11/1 ❌ Vikings +3 (15-19 L)
11/1 ✅ Broncos +1.5 (28-24 W)
11/2 ⏳ Seahawks -3 vs Bears (tonight)
Season: 11-6 (+4.0u)
Lifetime: 77-52 (+18.0u)
🔮Futures (open):
🏈 Bills +950, Super Bowl ($100, 9/17)
🏈 Chiefs +900, Super Bowl ($100, 10/22)
🏆 Georgia +550, CFB Natty ($100, 10/8)
🏆 Miami +650, CFB Natty ($100, 10/29)
All four tickets are still very much alive.
🚨🏈 THE 25 GREATEST FOOTBALL PLAYS OF ALL TIME
Last night I posted a play from the Ohio State-USC game and called it a top 10 play ever. That post is linked right below this one. Here is the full top 25, ranked, with the video of every play in the thread.
1. The Kick Six
2. The Immaculate Reception
3. The Play
4. Vince Young on 4th and 5
5. The Helmet Catch
6. Statue of Liberty
7. The Catch
8. Flutie's Hail Mary
9. 2nd and 26
10. The Minneapolis Miracle
11. The Music City Miracle
12. Malcolm Butler's Interception
13. Trouble With the Snap
14. The Prayer at Jordan-Hare
15. Beast Quake
16. Santonio Holmes' Toe Tap
17. The Philly Special
18. Appalachian State's Blocked Field Goal
19. Odell Beckham Jr.'s Catch
20. Kordell Stewart's Hail Mary
21. Crabtree Beats Texas
22. Tommie Frazier Breaks Every Tackle
23. DeSean Jackson's Walk-Off Punt Return
24. The Bush Push
25. James Harrison's 100-Yard Pick Six
Left off: the Hook and Ladder, the Goal Line Stand, Hunter Renfrow's game winner, the Fail Mary. Argue with those too.
Every clip is in the thread below 👇
🔷 HONORABLE MENTION - THE GRAVEDIGGER
2023 Iron Bowl. Alabama down 24-20 at Auburn, 4th and goal from the 31, 43 seconds left after a bad snap pushed them back. Jalen Milroe waits in the pocket and puts it in the corner of the end zone for Isaiah Bond. Alabama wins 27-24, then beats Georgia for the SEC title a week later. The play was called Gravedigger.
Added on @williammountai8's call.
🔷 HONORABLE MENTION - THE TEAGUE STRIP
1993 Sugar Bowl, Alabama vs Miami for the national title. Lamar Thomas catches the deep ball and is down the sideline for an 89-yard touchdown, until George Teague runs him down from behind and rips the ball out of his hands. A flag wiped the play out, but the strip saved the touchdown. Alabama won 34-13 and the championship.
Added on @williammountai8's call.