David Duong🛡️

"Right now, the level of yields can actually rise without the inflation story being the key here." David Duong on the three scenarios behind rising yields "What I'm acknowledging is that we have seen a real yield shock. That's no surprise. We've seen real yields go up by 50 basis points. Obviously, there's something being impacted. The question I think we need to ask is what is contributing to that?" "Because if this is a fiscal blowup, then we have a huge problem. If this is because we're on a trend for higher rates, and this is gonna continue on for another four or five, six meetings, we have a problem." "If this is because this is nominal GDP and yields are actually sitting at equilibrium, yields going higher because growth is actually increasing, because we're kinda pricing that in and the inflation trend as a result, over the long term, not thinking over the short period hit by oil prices — then this could actually be considered just equilibrium levels that could be good for risk." "I'm not saying that we are not going to actually have some retracement in some of these things. In fact, I think that that's what's happening with Bitcoin, because I think a lot of that has to do with profit taking and short gamma positions held by the dealers." "I think that yields can actually go up while risk actually does fairly well. I think that this is going to be a short term problem, not a longer term, medium-term issue."

David Duong says BTC could creep above $100,000 by year end, and de-dollarization isn't why "The de-dollarization theme is definitely one that drives Bitcoin. To a longer term kind of thinking, this is definitely how I see Bitcoin fall inside people's portfolios, because this is the hedge against whether any of these kind of currencies, including the dollar, probably won't have long term value." "But it's just whether it's something I'm pricing right now, that's the only kind of pushback I would have. I don't think it's what truly is driving any purchases that we get in the short term." "I think the short term has a lot more to do with: okay, technicals have been pretty poor for a while, things are recovering, liquidity is back, this looks like an asset that looks attractive right now. And I think this is kind of why we're seeing Bitcoin creeping higher." "But this is irrespective of the fundamental kinda macro that a lot of people are trying to attach the story to."

David Duong says ETF holders reclaiming $82K triggered profit-taking, and 80 is where accumulation starts "One thing that you didn't mention, and I think a lot of people aren't paying attention to it. Bloomberg's James Seyffart said that we've now reclaimed the $82,000 average cost basis for those ETF holders. And I think that part is what's important, because that is what's driving the price action over the last 24 to 48 hours." "It's very hard to reconcile, if we're flipping positive on all these flows, then why is it that we were down $2000 on Bitcoin? A big part has to do with the fact that people wanna take profits when they actually reclaim those levels, because they're like, oh man, I've been holding this forever. I'm up, get me out of here." "They're probably not the Bitcoin holders that would listen to the show, which would be like, are you kidding us? We've been holding for 10 years. What are you talking about? You've held it for 2 years." "On the other side of that, you also have a lot of dealers who are now sitting on short gamma positions on Bitcoin. So probably the combination of the two is what's dragged us a little bit lower." "This is obviously an unequivocal good for Bitcoin. I think you'll see it reset here, and I wouldn't expect it to reset below 80. I think it's probably gonna get to the 80 level again, and you're gonna start seeing buyers come in. But I would expect that this is a place you're gonna see more accumulation rather than people trying to capitulate."