David Makovsky

We’ll see the final results, but Shas appears to have lost a huge share of its vote, falling from 11 seats to 7 or fewer—the party’s biggest setback since its founding in 1984. Shas has always brought together Mizrahi/Sephardic traditionalists with their ultra-Orthodox. Many traditionalists might attend synagogue on Saturday morning and go to a soccer game that afternoon. The party’s alignment with the ultra-Orthodox against military service this time appears to have driven a wedge through that coalition, alienating rank-and-file voters who see service as part of their identity. Netanyahu may have benefited to the tune of four extra seats. He also favored exemptions for the ultra-Orthodox, but - rightly or wrongly - was less defined by that position than Shas.

In Jerusalem, I spoke with an East Jerusalem Palestinian who was part of the surge in Arab turnout in the Israeli elections. He said he saw a social media campaign built around “barra, barra” (“out, out”), aimed at Ben-Gvir, and believes Ben-Gvir very definitely helped drive Arab voters to the polls. His father called him and all his siblings, urging them to go vote immediately.

Watch the @WashInstitute Policy Forum, where I joined @AmbDennisRoss and @gilicohen10 to discuss the results of the Israeli elections and their implications, in a conversation moderated by @felschwartz. I discuss the election’s key takeaways and the most likely scenarios moving forward. Watch here: washingtoninstitute.org/poli…

Happening now! washingtoninstitute.org/poli…

84 percent of ballots counted - Likud-led bloc leads count with 54 seats, short of majority; Eisenkot-led bloc at 49, Arab parties at 17 timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

Channel 12's exit poll points to a late surge for Likud. The coming hours will reveal whether this gain holds as votes are counted. The apparent surge seems driven by weaker-than-expected showings for both the ultra-Orthodox parties and the far right, with votes shifting toward Likud.

With voting over, there is reason to believe that the leaders of the four opposition parties are consulting to keep their messaging aligned at this especially sensitive moment.

Near-final election turnout at 77.7%, highest since 1999 timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

Join @AmbDennisRoss, @gilicohen10, and me for a discussion moderated by @felschwartz on the Israeli election results and their ramifications. Watch live Wednesday, October 28, at 3:30 p.m. EDT. washingtoninstitute.org/poli…

People can focus on the uncertainty ahead and it is real. But at least a couple things seem clear: 1. Netanyahu’s bloc has fallen from 64 seats in the last election to around 50, with no clear path to forming a government. 2. Arab turnout was massive. Ben-Gvir may have helped drive those voters to the polls by heightening fears that they would otherwise be marginalized.

Fascinating to be in Israel as polls close. Seeing it up close now from Eisenkot HQ Tel Aviv. We can delve into the results of the first exit polls but it should be said very places in the Mideast where are elections are held. And iif held, results not known in advance! This is worth noting amid all the drama.

74.3% voted by 8 p.m. up from 66.3% in 2022.

Voter turnout stood at 66.7% as of 6 p.m., according to the Central Elections Committee, up from 57.7% at the same time in the 2022 election. It is the highest turnout at this hour in recorded history.

Turnout at 55.7% as of 4 p.m., up 8 percentage points from same time in 2022 and highest ever recorded timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

A story under the radar in the U.S. is the emergence of an innovative ultraorthodox party which believes their public should 1) draft, 2) work and have a 3) core curriculum (English, Math) like rest of the country. Public reports voter intimidation against this party, attacks on activists as campaign booth vandalized. timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

Voter turnout at 44.9% as of 2 p.m., highest at this hour since 1973 election timesofisrael.com/liveblog_e…

Voter turnout at 31.5% as of noon, highest at this hour since 1973 election timesofisrael.com/liveblog-o…