Investor and Trader | AI + Crypto + Macro 🌐 Daily market analysis. No noise. Not financial advice.
Joined November 2023
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🚨 THIS IS HOW THE NEXT GLOBAL CRISIS BEGINS, AND IT IS ALREADY UNDERWAY IN THE ONE MARKET NOBODY WATCHES
Three weeks ago I warned about a debt crisis building.
Since then every number moved the wrong way.
Here is the truth almost nobody wants to hear.
The S&P 500, Bitcoin, all of crypto,
they are dust compared to the bond market.
The global bond market sets the price of money itself.
Every stock, every coin, every mortgage, every government
is built on top of it. When it moves, everything moves.
And right now, it is cracking on three fronts at once.
THE UNITED STATES
→ 30Y yield: 5.31%, a 19-YEAR high
→ 10Y: 4.73%, closing in on 5%
→ Levels last seen right before 2008
→ Foreign buyers pulled $72B out in a single month
America's biggest lenders are walking away.
CHINA
→ Cut its US Treasury holdings to $633B, an 18-YEAR low
→ The lowest since September 2008
For years China was one of the biggest buyers of US debt.
Now it is doing the opposite, steadily backing away
from funding America and the rest of the world.
The buyer that helped keep borrowing cheap is gone.
JAPAN
→ Near-zero rates for THREE DECADES, now ending
→ 10Y yield hit 3%, highest since 1996
→ 30Y broke above 4%
When Japanese bonds pay again, Japanese money stops funding the world and stays home. Another giant buyer disappears.
EUROPE
→ France's 10Y at 4.10%, highest since 2009
→ Germany's 30Y at 3.73%, highest since 2011
→ UK's 30Y gilt at 5.85%
France is the weak link. Italy must refinance debt
worth 17% of its GDP this year.
Every major government on earth is paying more to borrow, at the same time, for the same reasons.
The trigger could be anything.
But the weakest point in the whole system is Japan.
Three decades of cheap money unwinding at once
is the crack that could split the entire foundation.
Watch the bond market first.
Everything else is a sideshow.
12 years in these markets. This is what I do.
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🚨 EVERYONE'S WATCHING THE WRONG NUMBER — THE FED IS ALREADY TRAPPED, AND THE 10Y PROVES IT
The whole market is glued to the Fed funds rate
and the September hike odds. Wrong screen.
The real story is the long end and the debt behind it.
The curve, mapped to what you actually trade:
→ 2Y: 4.22% → your $SHY
→ 10Y: 4.69% → your $IEF
→ 20Y: ~5.2% → your $TLT
→ 30Y just printed a 19-YEAR high
Here's the trap:
→ Cut → inflation reignites, long end sells off, $TLT drops anyway
→ Hold/hike → borrowing costs stay high and the deficit detonates
No exit that doesn't hurt. That's what "trapped" means.
Now run the debt math at today's 10Y (4.69%):
→ Total debt: ~$39.9T
→ Blended rate now: 3.41% → ~$1.36T/yr in interest
→ Reprice that stack at 4.69% → ~$1.87T/yr
→ That's +$500B/yr for doing NOTHING but rolling old debt
$1.87T in interest alone would be more than
the entire FY2025 deficit ($1.78T) —
and about a THIRD of all federal tax revenue (~$5.2T).
It doesn't hit overnight. It bleeds in as the debt rolls.
But it's one-way — every refi swaps cheap debt for expensive debt.
This is arithmetic, not opinion:
Once interest eats a third of revenue, the budget loses its flexibility.
Every dollar to bondholders is a dollar that can't go anywhere else.
At these rates it compounds instead of stabilizing.
That's the box the Fed is stuck in.
Inflation is the easy problem here.
12 years in these markets — this is what I do.
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🚨 TODAY IS A BLOODBATH FOR TECH. THE AI BUBBLE IS STARTING TO POP.
Tech is getting crushed, and the session is still going. NVIDIA is down 7.4%, AMD 14.8%, Micron 13%, Broadcom 7.3%, Palantir 9.5% and Tesla 11%. The Nasdaq 100 is down about 5%, and reportedly around $1.7 trillion in value has disappeared so far.
Look at the weekly chart. Nasdaq printed two peaks at almost the same level, and now price has broken below the low between them. That is a classic double top, and it points lower. This is not a one day move. This is a pattern that took months to build.
Now look at the macro:
→ NVIDIA reported $96.2B in revenue, up 106%, and $59.7B in net income. AMD posted the biggest quarter in its history. Both still crashed today. When record numbers stop lifting a stock, the market is worried about the future
→ Alphabet (Google) fell about 13% after its report last week, its worst day since the 2004 IPO. Cloud revenue grew 103%, but capex hit $51.4B in one quarter and free cash flow turned negative
→ Intel plunged almost 30% after guiding next quarter revenue far below expectations, as PC demand weakens because of memory prices
→ Meta raised its capex plan to $135-145 billion, and investors are asking who pays for all this spending
→ CoreWeave dropped about 30% in October
→ The Fed hiked in September, and the 10-year yield is above 5%. High rates hit expensive growth stocks first
→ CPI is 3.7% and oil is still high, so the Fed has no room to help
→ NVIDIA trades near 40x trailing earnings, so there is little cushion left
→ Democrats took control of Congress, and traders fear tighter AI rules and slower data center building
→ Talk of Anthropic IPO valuation moved from $2 trillion toward $1.5 trillion after growth slowed
Crypto is not hiding from this either. Bitcoin is falling hard today together with the Nasdaq, right after the $6.3 billion Binance hack and a weak October, the worst since 2014. So much for digital gold. In a real selloff, Bitcoin trades like a risk asset, not a safe haven.
Bulls say this is an overreaction, and they may be right. But AI stocks are priced for perfection, spending is enormous, rates are rising, and the chart already looks broken.
This may be the start of the AI bubble cracking, not the end of AI. The technology is real. The prices may not be.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 BREAKING: US JOBLESS CLAIMS FALL TO 189K. THE LABOR MARKET IS STILL TOO STRONG.
Initial jobless claims came in at 189K vs 196K expected.
Job openings jumped to 7.523M and ADP printed 86K this week. Very few layoffs keeps the Fed hawkish, and payrolls come tomorrow.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY. THE LABOR MARKET GETS A BIG TEST.
Today at 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 196K
IF CLAIMS < 190K → MARKET DUMPS
IF CLAIMS 190K-200K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF CLAIMS > 200K → MARKET PUMPS
Job openings jumped to 7.523M and ADP printed 86K this week, so the labor market looks hot. Low claims would confirm it right before payrolls tomorrow.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY. THE LABOR MARKET GETS A BIG TEST.
Today at 13:30 UTC (8:30 AM ET): US Initial Jobless Claims
Expected: 196K
IF CLAIMS < 190K → MARKET DUMPS
IF CLAIMS 190K-200K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF CLAIMS > 200K → MARKET PUMPS
Job openings jumped to 7.523M and ADP printed 86K this week, so the labor market looks hot. Low claims would confirm it right before payrolls tomorrow.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 TRUMP FAILED TO MOVE OIL. THE SENATE DEMOCRATIC LEADER DID IT WITH FOUR WORDS: "THIS WAR MUST END."
Before the midterms, Trump kept pushing Iran peace talks to bring oil prices down. It did not work. Brent hit $116.72 on October 23 and stayed above $100.
Then Democrats won control of Congress. Senate Democratic Leader Schumer said those four words, and warned Democrats will launch investigations and take Trump to court. Brent fell about 5% right after, from about $99 to $94, and is down about 9% on the day.
Reuters says the market expects Trump may move on from Iran after the vote. An Iranian official still says a deal is far away.
What comes next: if peace talks hold, cheaper oil helps cool inflation and takes pressure off the Fed. If talks fail, oil can jump back fast. My base case is high volatility until a deal is signed.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 BREAKING: US SERVICES PMI MISSES BIG. 56.1 VS 57.9 EXPECTED.
S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, final) came in at 56.1, well below the 57.9 forecast and below the flash reading.
The biggest part of the US economy is slowing. The midterms are over, Democrats took control of Congress, and the market now has a new Washington to price.
ADP was strong this morning at 86K, so the data is mixed. The market has to decide what matters more.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 SERVICES ARE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE US ECONOMY. TWO PMI READS HIT TODAY.
Today at 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, final)
Expected: 57.9
IF PMI > 57.9 → MARKET DUMPS
IF PMI = 57.9 → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF PMI < 57.9 → MARKET PUMPS
Last month the ISM services prices index hit 74, the highest since 2022. Strong services data with high prices keeps the Fed hawkish.
Also today at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): ISM Services PMI.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 BREAKING: US PRIVATE JOBS BEAT THE FORECAST. ADP SHOWS 86K VS 69K EXPECTED.
ADP employment change came in at 86K, well above the 69K forecast.
Job openings jumped to 7.523M yesterday, and now private hiring is strong too. A hot labor market keeps the Fed hawkish.
Democrats also won the midterms and took control of Congress, so the market now has a new Washington to price.
More data today: Services PMI at 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET) and ISM Services PMI at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET). Payrolls come on Friday.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 ADP JOBS HIT TODAY, TWO DAYS BEFORE PAYROLLS. THE FIRST LABOR SIGNAL OF THE WEEK.
Today at 13:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Employment Change (Oct)
Expected: 65K
IF ADP > 65K → MARKET DUMPS
IF ADP = 65K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF ADP < 65K → MARKET PUMPS
Job openings jumped to 7.523M yesterday. Another strong labor number keeps the Fed hawkish, while a weak one gives the market room to breathe. Payrolls come on Friday.
Over 12 years in these markets.
Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.
The biggest updates go to Telegram first.
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🚨 SERVICES ARE THE BIGGEST PART OF THE US ECONOMY. TWO PMI READS HIT TODAY.
Today at 14:45 UTC (9:45 AM ET): S&P Global Services PMI (Oct, final)
Expected: 57.9
IF PMI > 57.9 → MARKET DUMPS
IF PMI = 57.9 → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF PMI < 57.9 → MARKET PUMPS
Last month the ISM services prices index hit 74, the highest since 2022. Strong services data with high prices keeps the Fed hawkish.
Also today at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): ISM Services PMI.
Over 12 years in these markets.
Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.
The biggest updates go to Telegram first.
Join so you do not miss anything important: t.me/DeFi_Machine
🚨 ADP JOBS HIT TODAY, TWO DAYS BEFORE PAYROLLS. THE FIRST LABOR SIGNAL OF THE WEEK.
Today at 13:15 UTC (8:15 AM ET): US ADP Employment Change (Oct)
Expected: 65K
IF ADP > 65K → MARKET DUMPS
IF ADP = 65K → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF ADP < 65K → MARKET PUMPS
Job openings jumped to 7.523M yesterday. Another strong labor number keeps the Fed hawkish, while a weak one gives the market room to breathe. Payrolls come on Friday.
Over 12 years in these markets.
Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.
The biggest updates go to Telegram first.
Join so you do not miss anything important: t.me/DeFi_Machine
🚨 BREAKING: US JOB OPENINGS JUMP TO 7.523M. THE LABOR MARKET IS NOT COOLING.
JOLTS job openings came in at 7.523M vs 7.1M expected. In August it was about 7.1M, so openings rose by more than 400K in one month.
A hot labor market keeps the Fed hawkish and the rate hike on the table. Good news for the economy is bad news for stocks and crypto right now.
Midterm results come tonight and payrolls on Friday. Stay alert.
Over 12 years in these markets.
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🚨 JOLTS HITS TODAY, HOURS BEFORE THE MIDTERM RESULTS. ONE NUMBER CAN SET THE MOOD.
Today at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Expected: 7.1M
IF JOLTS > 7.1M → MARKET DUMPS
IF JOLTS = 7.1M → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF JOLTS < 7.1M → MARKET PUMPS
A strong labor market keeps the Fed hawkish. A weak one gives the market room to breathe. Payrolls come on Friday, so every labor number counts this week.
Over 12 years in these markets.
Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.
The biggest updates go to Telegram first.
Join so you do not miss anything important: t.me/DeFi_Machine
🚨 JOLTS HITS TODAY, HOURS BEFORE THE MIDTERM RESULTS. ONE NUMBER CAN SET THE MOOD.
Today at 15:00 UTC (10:00 AM ET): US JOLTS Job Openings (Sep)
Expected: 7.1M
IF JOLTS > 7.1M → MARKET DUMPS
IF JOLTS = 7.1M → NOTHING CHANGES NEAR-TERM
IF JOLTS < 7.1M → MARKET PUMPS
A strong labor market keeps the Fed hawkish. A weak one gives the market room to breathe. Payrolls come on Friday, so every labor number counts this week.
Over 12 years in these markets.
Do not miss the next big move. Follow me and turn notifications on.
The biggest updates go to Telegram first.
Join so you do not miss anything important: t.me/DeFi_Machine