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It's been almost 40 years since I created Offensive Ratings for teams. I was a college kid. I don't know if I dreamed it would be used so much. My lens was that it helped *me*. Am very happy that the sport embraced the metrics and hope that it helps others as much as it did me.
In college, I took a philosophy class. For the first paper, I wrote about this episode. The professor hated the idea of Star Trek TNG as an idea for the paper. He hated it so much that he called me into his office.
The series made me think, far more than the class ever did.
Dean Oliver retweeted
An early season PSA: offensive rating, defensive rating & net ratings are NOT individual player stats. They are team-specific stats.
I looked for what you all were thinking of in terms of Jalen Williams trades.
Interesting thinking, people. MPJ, Gianni's, and some Celtics
espnanalytics.com/nba-trade-…
Dean Oliver retweeted
I went on Shump Street to talk analytics with a former player. We got a little loud, but it was definitely fun.
youtu.be/zrF1fNyiSYg?si=ZPvJ…
Dean Oliver retweeted
Yaxel’s readiness has surprised and excited many. His ability to slow the game down and adapt to what it demands is something we rarely see in a rookie.
So what has traveled from college? What is adapting? What is emerging?
Here is the Net Points story 👇
#DubNation
Shooting for both teams has dropped like a rock in the WNBA Finals, worth 9-10 ppg.
For GSV, their drop in putbacks ("OR" label) is also significant.
Defense got them to Game 7 on Halloween night. We'll see what wins the championship.
The first of this year's rookies to be the MVP of the day is Cam Boozer.
A very efficient triple double against what looks to be a good Portland team.
espnanalytics.com/nba-daily-…
I will note that Boozer remains nearly the worst in finishing at the rim. I don't expect him to stay there, but I don't think he'll be great either. He just has other tools to overcome that.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-…
Early leaders in clutch time.
Lots of stars here, which is surprising this early in the year. This can start noisy.
Cooper Flagg is in the top ten in both offensive and defensive Net Points.
He hasn't had a negative game yet in four games.
It's early in the season and in his career, but those are good signs.
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-…
AJ Dybantsa's debut last night
- He was good in Q1, bad in Q4, roughly neutral in the middle two quarters
- He wasn't good on the glass, but it was a solid first game
espnanalytics.com/nba-box?id…
I haven't really seen the Lakers besides highlights yet this year (late games), so I gotta read some numbers
- Luka, Reaves as their best is no surprise
- Ziaire not usually that good
- Lakers have the 2nd biggest drop from starters to the bench. Last year, it was the biggest
I heard someone say something nice about Matisse Thybulle before last night's game. Something like "refreshing" and "better than expected".
Then he had a bad one. This includes matchups/help defense better than in past years, too, which matters for him.
espnanalytics.com/nba-player…
Most Overachieving Teams
Memphis, +55.8%
Houston, +49.6%
Portland, +39.0%
Detroit, +28.8%
Oklahoma City, +26.7%
This is in terms of how much better their win percentage is than expected based on BPI.
The rookie production thus far
- Yaxel had below average games the first two, above since then
- Acuff at -8.4 Net Pts/100 through 100+ minutes is bad, the worst I can remember, but I'll check
- 2nd rounder Brazile in there
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-…
Small sample size, but this is the bottom of the list of Net Points total on shots At the Rim:
- Boozer was the reason I looked this up as I've seen him get stuffed a lot
- The other guys surprise me a bit
espnanalytics.com/nba-award-…
In the Cavs' win over the Wolves, there was eventful clutch play. Ant missing the potential game-evening three. LaMelo missing free throws (one intentionally)
- Mobley was best, in part for D
- Ant was good on O
- LaMelo was worst
So far, the Grizz, Pacers, and Suns have played the easiest schedules.
The Celtics, Magic, and Mavericks have played the hardest ones.
The difference between the easiest and hardest is about 10 ppg.
The undefeated Wolves are outscoring their opponents by 23+ per game, with +18 of that coming from their performance on 3s.
For the season last year, the best team gained +3.3 per game on 3s, so this is definitely small sample size theater.
espnanalytics.com/nba-team-4…
