*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Tech Slides on AI Valuation Worries as Treasury Yields Hit 5.3%, Oil Near $105* The technology sector experienced *broad weakness* today, causing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite to finish modestly lower. Investors shifted focus into value-oriented sectors, allowing the *blue-chip Dow Jones to log a positive gain*. Warnings about artificial-intelligence sector valuations and a broader market rotation weighed particularly heavily on semiconductor and hardware stocks. The *Dow* rose 0.38% to 51,850 while the *S&P 500* was flat at 7,807 and the *Nasdaq* fell 0.44%. Micron dropped 3.9% on Chinese rival CXMT's chip progress. Investors are shifting their focus to *corporate fundamentals* as major financial institutions prepare to report their third-quarter performance. Banking giants including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Citigroup will kick off the corporate earnings season today. These upcoming reports are expected to provide key insights into how sustained high bond yields have impacted economic growth. The *dollar index* is around 102.5, its highest since April 2025, on hawkish Fed expectations and safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is steady near 1.12 but pressured by France's debt worries, weak Italian industrial output and fading ECB hike bets. The US *10-year Treasury* yield is around 5.3%, and the 30-year hit 5.70%, the highest since 2002, pressuring stocks, gold and crypto. *Brent* surged to $107, now hovering near 105.5 following Houthi strikes on Riyadh's airport. Crude oil benchmarks fell slightly as traders responded to reports of a potential Russia-Ukraine energy infrastructure ceasefire. Market participants remained cautious as the White House noted the unconfirmed truce focused heavily on refinery targets. Cleveland Fed's Hammack said fast, incremental tightening may be needed. Markets see about 81% odds of a hold on Oct. 28 but still expect a possible further hike by year-end. September CPI is due Wednesday, with a 3.6% y/y consensus versus 3.4% in August. PPI follows Thursday, and Fed Chair Warsh speaks Friday at the IMF-World Bank meetings, where a hawkish tone could hit risk assets. *India’s retail inflation* accelerated to 5.5% YoY in Sep 2026 from 4.82% in Aug-26, in line with expectations, as higher food and energy prices continued to feed into broader metrics. Core CPI edged up by 4.6% YoY in Sep-26, indicating a gradual broadening of price pressures beyond food and fuel. With headline inflation moving closer to the upper end of the RBI’s 2-6% target band, upside risks have intensified amid El Niño concerns, a deficient monsoon and elevated global commodity prices The *Indian rupee* was the strongest performer among its Asian peers, appreciating 96 paise to close at 95.77. The move was supported by the RBI’s targeted measures to curb speculation and contain volatility in the forex market. After opening higher, *profit-taking* set in almost immediately and persisted throughout yesterday's session, pulling the *Nifty nearly 250 points lower* from its high to close near the day’s low. A sustained move above last week’s high of 22,776 would be needed to signal a bullish trend reversal. On the downside, 22,180 is near-term support; a break below it could signal a resumption of the downtrend. Asian markets opened lower today, followed by Wall Street, as Technology stocks, particularly chipmakers, came under pressure as investors reduced exposure to growth-oriented shares ahead of earnings announcements and inflation readings. *Indian equities appear set for a subdued start to the session, weighed down by a soft global backdrop.*

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary A Breathing Space for the Rupee, Oversold Markets Eye a Relief Bounce Major U.S. stock benchmarks posted notable weekly gains after a strong, broad-based rebound at week's end. The Dow Jones rose 0.8%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.6% on Friday. The S&P 500 had its fourth straight weekly gain. Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors closed higher, helping the major indexes recover from an artificial-intelligence stock slide earlier in the week. The U.S. cash bond market will be closed today for the Columbus Day holiday. Prior to the pause, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield settled slightly above 5.24%. This left interest rates resting just below a 24-year peak of 5.37% reached earlier in the week, driven by persistent inflation anxieties and the prospect of further Federal Reserve rate hikes. Wall Street is preparing for a significant test of its current valuation metrics as the third-quarter earnings season approaches. Major commercial banks are scheduled to report their financial performance early in the week, with expectations for sustained earnings expansion remaining elevated. Investors will be monitoring these disclosures closely, especially after early reports from companies like Delta Air Lines missed estimates due to rising fuel costs. Analysts expect Q3 S&P 500 earnings growth of about 29.6%, driven by the AI data-centre buildout. A Consumer Price Index report scheduled for release on Wednesday will provide a major data point for the U.S. Federal Reserve ahead of its policy meeting late this month. The most recent CPI report released in September showed inflation at a 3.4% annual rate in August, unchanged from the previous month and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target. Brent slipped to about $103. President Trump’s announcement of a Russia-Ukraine energy ceasefire and a Russian diesel supply deal pressured prices, though neither side has confirmed the ceasefire. Reports that the U.S. will not strike Iran before the midterm elections also eased concerns. Support for higher crude oil prices came from Houthi strikes on Riyadh’s airport and further tanker attacks near the Strait of Hormuz. The RBI established a direct dollar-supply window for major state-run oil companies and slammed the brakes on currency speculation by tightening derivative limits, banning cancel-and-rebook trades, and adding risk reserve requirements. These emergency steps immediately remove massive daily oil-import demand from the open spot market and squeeze out speculators. The RBI also raised the minimum daily Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) maintenance requirement for scheduled banks from 90% to 99% of the prescribed requirement. Taken together, these measures should hearten rupee bulls at the open and relieve the acute pressure of depreciation, affording policymakers valuable breathing room. They do not, however, resolve the underlying structural strains of a widening trade deficit and persistent capital outflows Markets have bounced back after an 8-week decline. A sustained move above last week’s high of 22,776 would strengthen the bullish case. On the downside, 22,300 is near-term support; a break below it could signal a resumption of the downtrend. The rupee’s recovery in the wake of the RBI’s measures, a modest retreat in crude oil prices following President Trump’s announcement of an energy ceasefire, and deeply oversold technical indicators together suggest that the market is poised for a rebound. Sustaining that bounce, however, will require resolving the underlying structural headwinds: an abatement of FII selling, easing geopolitical anxieties, and a meaningful decline in crude prices. Nonetheless, a relief rally appears overdue in the near term.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Start of Earnings Season to Drive Markets as Interest Rate, Currency and Crude Worries Persist Major U.S. stock indexes retreated from their all-time highs as investors locked in gains. The Dow Jones dropped 0.66%, while both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite shed 0.22% following their record-breaking sessions. This pullback was heavily driven by heightened energy price volatility and lingering inflation anxieties. Long-term U.S. bond yields soared to levels not seen since 2002, with the 30-year Treasury yield scaling to 5.66% and the 10-year note touching 5.37% in early trading. Heavy pressure in the fixed-income sector initially rattled equities, though yields moderately pared back their daily gains following a solid $39 billion government auction of 10-year notes. Global energy benchmarks remained elevated, with Brent crude stabilising around the $102 per barrel threshold. Persistent anxiety regarding attacks on supply lines in the Strait of Hormuz continues to bolster prices, creating a structural undercurrent of inflation worries that is complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary trajectory. EURO fell about 0.6% to near 1.119. French fiscal stress, Spain's snap election and Brent above $100 are weighing on the euro. The RBI MPC hiked the repo rate by 25bps for the first time since Feb’2023 to 5.5%, citing hardening inflation and the re-escalation of the West Asia crisis and the resulting hardening and volatility in global crude prices. It also changed the stance from ‘neutral’ to ‘calibrated tightening’, indicating that rate cuts are off the table and there would be further hikes or a pause in the coming months. The rupee depreciated 36 paise to close at a five-month low of 96.78, marking its second-weakest close on record and underperforming most Asian currencies. Sentiment weakened after the RBI adopted a hawkish stance amid renewed inflation concerns. A rebound in crude oil prices and heightened risk aversion added to the pressure, keeping dollar bulls firmly in control. TCS is going to report Q2 FY27 results today, after market hours, with the board also due to consider a second interim dividend. The market expects revenue growth of about 0.5% QoQ and 2.8% YoY, broadly stable margins versus Q1, and TCV of $10–11 billion. The focus is on whether growth stabilises and how quickly margins can move toward the 25%+ exit target. Nifty resumed its downward trajectory, declining 173 points to close at 22,603 yesterday amid a highly volatile trading session. Immediate resistance is placed near 22,800, aligned with the 10-day EMA, while key supports are seen at 22,397 and 22,217. A sustained move above 22,800 would be required to signal meaningful short-term recovery. Indian equities look set for a muted open in the absence of strong global triggers.

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *S&P 500 and Nasdaq reach historic heights as artificial intelligence trade re-ignites* Major US stock indexes advanced as *tech giants paced a broader market rally*, sending the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh closing records. The upward momentum was fueled by investor optimism surrounding artificial intelligence hardware leaders and upwardly revised corporate earnings expectations for the upcoming season. The S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to a *record close at 7,819*, and the *Nasdaq* notched a second straight record near 27,599. The Dow added roughly 250 points as AI-linked shares led the gains. Fixed-income pressure on equities relaxed slightly as the benchmark *10-year Treasury yield pulled back* from near its multi-decade high above 5.3%. The 10-year yield fell to about 5.27% after touching a level not seen since 2002, which helped equities. Economic data revealed the *US domestic trade deficit* expanded to $105.6 billion in August, exceeding consensus forecasts. Driven by a surge in record import levels, the gap reflects the widest imbalance observed since early 2025. *Crude oil rebounded* as a Gulf of Mexico storm threatening US output and refineries, together with Houthi attacks on Saudi airports, outweighed higher Middle East exports and the G7's 100-million-barrel reserve release. The RBI's *Monetary Policy Committee* announces its decision today at 10:00 am, and the consensus is a 25 bp hike in the repo rate to 5.50% from 5.25%, the first increase since February 2023. Eight of 10 economists in a poll expect the hike, so it is a majority call rather than a unanimous one. Rising inflation, surging oil prices and rupee pressure are behind the expectation. Markets will focus on the *guidance rather than the decision* itself, especially the vote split, any shift in stance away from neutral, and the revised inflation and growth projections. The *Indian rupee depreciated 13 paise* to close at 96.42 against the US dollar, weighed down by continued dollar demand from FPIs and oil companies. Market participants will now focus on the RBI’s monetary-policy decision due today, along with the trajectory of foreign capital flows. *Nifty* gained for the second consecutive session yesterday, rising 220 points to close at 22,776. Immediate resistance is placed at 22,875, followed by 23,080. On the downside, support has shifted higher to around 22,550. *Indian equities are poised for a subdued open, on rising energy costs and weaker cues from Asian markets.* *Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

Nasdaq Hits Record as Nvidia Leads Wall Street rallied on AI-linked strength, with the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.05% to a record close of 27,477, the S&P 500 gaining 0.66% to 7,774 and the Dow adding 0.18%. Nvidia closed at a record high, surpassing its mid-May peak and anchoring the tech advance ahead of earnings season, though elevated yields continued to weigh on non-AI sectors. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to about 5.31%, up roughly 50 bps in a month, while a September payrolls print of 29,000 against an 84,000 estimate lifted market-implied odds of an October Fed hold to about 78% from 36% a week earlier. In currency markets, the euro fell to 1.1161, its lowest since May 2025, as French 10-year yields hit their highest since 2002 and the France-Germany spread widened past 140 bps, with political turmoil in Spain and record speculative euro shorts adding pressure while the dollar index touched an annual high. Crude fell about 2% as Middle East exports recovered toward pre-war levels and a 100-million-barrel G7 emergency release and a Saudi price cut added pressure. After shedding half a per cent last week, the Indian Rupee steadied, appreciating 3 paise to close at 96.29 as easing supply concerns pulled crude oil prices lower. While improving risk-on sentiment provided an additional cushion for the local currency, market participants remain focused on the upcoming RBI monetary policy decision and foreign capital flows. The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee is meeting October 5-7, with the decision due tomorrow. Markets are leaning toward a 25 bp repo hike to 5.50%, with 38 of 61 economists in a poll expecting it. Nifty snapped its four-day losing streak, advancing 133 points to settle at 22,555 yesterday. Short-term indicators are deeply oversold, increasing the likelihood of a technical bounce. Immediate resistance sits at 22,655 and 22,810—a decisive breakout above this zone is essential to signal a meaningful recovery. Conversely, a move below the swing low of 22,397 could extend the decline toward 22,200. Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm cues from Wall Street

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Accenture results to help Indian IT companies, Strong odds of Rate Hike from MPC Wall Street wrapped up the final days of Q3 and kicked off Q4 facing persistent headwinds from soaring Treasury yields, elevated crude oil prices, and a cautious macroeconomic outlook. Indian benchmark indices extended their losing streak to eight consecutive weeks—marking the longest weekly decline in 25 years. Sustained strength in the US Dollar Index, coupled with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields pushing toward multi-decade highs, prompted global funds to reallocate capital away from emerging markets toward high-yielding U.S. paper. The Indian Rupee faced fresh pressure, as crude prices remained high, weakening beyond historic lows toward the 96+ / USD mark. Accenture reported higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue of $18.68 billion and robust new bookings of $22.2 billion, supported by accelerating demand for enterprise AI transformations. Accenture’s shares rallied 16% following the earnings release, breaking a multi-month decline after the firm issued upbeat full-year guidance and expanded operating margin targets. Accenture's commentary demonstrated that enterprise AI investments are generating net-new billable work and transformation scope rather than merely cannibalising traditional IT service contracts. Strong managed services bookings signal stabilising global enterprise IT spending, directly boosting demand sentiment for Indian service exporters. Indian market is pricing in strong odds of a 25 basis point (bps) rate hike at the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting this week. Nearly 60% of economists polled expect the benchmark repo rate to be raised from 5.25% to 5.50%. This would mark the first rate increase since February 2023. Short-end bond yields have already begun rising to price in these expectations. Markets will closely monitor Governor Sanjay Malhotra's commentary regarding future liquidity drainage measures and forward hawkishness The Indian equity market has largely priced in the anticipated 25 basis point (bps) rate hike. After a multi-week correction, benchmark indices are down roughly 14% for the year. Quarterly updates from banks and NBFCs point to an encouraging pickup in credit growth. Nifty breached the crucial 200-week SMA at 22,380 intraday but closed above it on Friday. Nifty found support near the April 2026 swing low of 22,182. A decisive break below 22,182 could drag the index toward the next support at 21,750, while 22,810 remains the immediate resistance for any recovery attempt. Indian equities are poised for a strong rebound at the open, powered by upbeat Accenture results, improving credit growth, and heavy FII short positions that could fuel a short-covering rally.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Dow Slips Over 4% in September as Treasury Yields Hit Multi-Year Highs US stocks closed the last session of September mixed after a late reversal. Mega-cap tech lifted the Nasdaq into positive territory, while late selling pushed the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average lower. Inflation data offered some relief, with August PCE rising 3.4% year on year, down from 3.7% in July, and core PCE easing to 3.0%, below forecasts. Revisions to earlier months also point to milder price pressure than previously estimated, and second-quarter GDP growth was revised up to 2.2% annualised from 1.5%. Treasury yields kept climbing, with the 10-year rising to about 5.29% and the 30-year reaching a 24-year high, as strong corporate earnings and the GDP upgrade outweighed the cooler inflation print. Elevated yields are weighing on risk assets and supporting the dollar. The softer PCE nonetheless cut October rate-hike odds to about 35% from roughly 72% on Tuesday. Friday's September nonfarm payrolls report is the next key test, following weak JOLTS data and consumer confidence of 81.9. Investors will watch today's jobless claims and ISM manufacturing data, along with remarks from Fed officials Barkin, Collins and Schmid, for further cues. Micron beat expectations, reporting fiscal fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $33.42 against $31.16 expected, and guiding current-quarter EPS to $38.15 ± $1.00, versus the $36.02 consensus. It flagged slightly softer gross margins and higher fiscal 2027 operating expenses, and investors wanted more detail on capital returns, with management saying only that it will raise them in December. Accenture reports today, with its shares down about 32% this year on AI-disruption concerns. India's southwest monsoon season ended with one of the weakest rainfalls in over a decade, recording 759 mm against the 868 mm long-period average, marking a 12.6% deficit for 2026. Regionally, central India received rainfall in the normal range, while northwest India (-5.8%), east and northeast India (-25.6%) and south peninsular India (-24.4%) recorded below-normal precipitation. The rupee appreciated 15 paise to close at 95.83 yesterday, tracking gains across Asian currencies. Lower crude prices, a retreat in global bond yields, anticipated RBI intervention and a softer dollar against major currencies supported the move. Nifty fell 95 points to close at 22,620 yesterday, marking its third straight daily decline. Immediate resistances lie at 22,810 and the 23,000–23,100 band; a decisive break above this zone is required to signal a meaningful recovery. Conversely, a sustained move below the recent swing low of 22,569 could extend the decline toward 22,200. Indian equities are poised for a lower open, on the back of weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Rising Treasury yields extend Wall Street's losses U.S. equities closed modestly lower on Tuesday for a second straight session as surging long-dated bond yields weighed on valuations. The Dow Jones fell 0.26%, the S&P 500 lost 0.16% and the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.09%. Tech stocks traded unevenly after a leaked Anthropic IPO prospectus and a scrapped next-generation OpenAI model renewed questions about AI safety. The 30-year Treasury yield climbed above 5.6%, its highest since 2002, while the 10-year yield rose to about 5.25%, a level last seen in 2007. The bond sell-off has raised borrowing costs across the economy and pressured richly valued equities and crypto. Brent crude eased to about $96 a barrel, as reports pointed to a recovery in Saudi Red Sea port exports following a pipeline attack. Elevated energy prices continue to feed inflation concerns and weigh on growth. New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers have ample time to assess incoming data before adjusting rates, sharply reducing market expectations of a quarter-point hike at the October meeting. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell 6.7 points to 81.9 in September, its lowest since 2014 and well short of the expected rise to 89. Cost-of-living and job-market worries, compounded by higher oil prices and borrowing costs, are stoking stagflation fears ahead of today's PCE inflation report. The rupee opened under pressure, briefly breaching 96.00, before clawing back to end flat. Swift RBI action, a pullback in global crude, and equity index rebalancing-driven foreign inflows helped restore stability. Nifty declined 6.65% in the September series, marking its sharpest series-to-series fall since March 2026. Rising crude prices amid the ongoing West Asia conflict and sustained FII selling weighed on the index, while Bank Nifty fell 5.66%. FIIs’ index-futures long-short ratio stood at 0.09 at the start of the October series, compared with 0.11 at the beginning of the September series, indicating a strong bearish bias. However, such extreme short positioning may trigger short covering and a near-term pullback. Around 91% of F&O stocks witnessed short build-up or long unwinding, compared with 42% in the previous series, highlighting heavily oversold conditions. Nifty extended its decline for a second straight session yesterday, shedding 64 points to close at 22,685, its lowest close since 30 March 2026. Nifty staged a gradual recovery to finish more than 150 points above the day’s lows. Immediate support placed in the 22,500–22,600 zone. On the upside, resistance has shifted down to 23,000–23,100. Indian markets are set for a mildly weak opening , tracking subdued Asian cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Nifty Tumbles to Five-Month Low on Rising Energy Prices & Rate Hike Fears. U.S. stocks closed mixed as an afternoon rally in Big Tech pared steeper earlier losses. The Dow fell 0.3% for a third straight decline, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed essentially flat as investors weighed surging Treasury yields against rising oil prices. Growth and tech names — most rate-sensitive — continued to weigh on sentiment. The Treasury Department bought back $4.08 billion of long-term debt, well short of the $6 billion cap set by Secretary Scott Bessent. Offers were heavily rejected — just 12 of 35 eligible issues were accepted — undercutting the operation's aim of easing surging yields. The 30-year yield pushed higher still, hovering near 5.4%. Communication Services led sector gains, with Meta Platforms up 4% after detailing monetisation plans for its AI agent. Data management firm Everpure rose over 11% after reaffirming full-year guidance, while Nvidia shares swung on news of a $13 billion deal to acquire Hugging Face. The 10-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high near 5.14%. Hawkish Fed and ECB commentary, paired with strong U.S. PMI data, lifted the odds of an October Fed hike to roughly 70%. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, a 7.5% monthly drop, underscoring growing consumer unease. Durable goods orders offered a partial offset, beating expectations with a 1.1% month-over-month gain. The rupee remained under pressure, depreciating 21 paise to close at 95.95, weighed down by soft Asian peers and a weak domestic equity market. A rebound in crude oil prices, elevated bond yields and rising expectations of higher interest rates added to the currency’s headwinds. Nifty resumed its downtrend with a massive fall of 383 points to close at 23063, the lowest since 6th April 2026. This is the biggest one-session percentage fall since 8th July 2026 for Nifty. The breakdown decisively pushes Nifty below the lower boundary of its recent 23,100–23,600 consolidation zone. This signals a continuation of the primary downtrend, with sellers in firm control and momentum skewed to the downside. Insurance distributor stocks tumbled sharply yesterday on the back of regulatory concerns, extending losses amid heightened sector-wide selling pressure. Positional support now lies around 22,700, aligning with the upward-sloping trendline connecting the swing lows of June 2024, April 2025 and April 2026. On the upside, near-term resistance has shifted down to 23,300. Indian markets are set for a weak open, tracking subdued global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Wall Street Slides as Fed Hike Fears Return US equities fell sharply, snapping record runs, as the 10-year Treasury yield broke above 5%. The Nasdaq dropped 1.1% to 26,936, giving back its two prior record closes. The S&P 500 and Dow lost 0.8% and 0.7%. The Russell 2000 fell roughly 1%. A strong S&P Global flash PMI drove the move. The composite index rose to 58.4 in September from 56.0 in August, the strongest private-sector expansion since July 2021. Services led (58.7 vs 56.5), and manufacturing jumped to 56.7 from 53.1 on stronger new orders, well above forecasts. The 10-year yield rose to about 5.06%, its highest since 2007, and the 2-year to about 4.87%, raising the odds of another Fed hike in October. Brent recovered above $100 per barrel as hopes of a near-term reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faded. Quantum computing stocks bucked the trend after IonQ announced a real-time error-correction advance ahead of the Quantum World Congress. The advance removes a key bottleneck for fault-tolerant computing. United States and China agreed to extend the "Busan Agreement" trade truce until January 10, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced after meeting Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Investors are closely watching the high-profile US-China summit in Washington for trade and diplomatic signals that could sway risk sentiment across asset classes. Additional focus turns to US jobless claims, building permits, and Fed speeches from Williams, Barkin, and Hammack for further direction on rate expectations. The Indian government reduced import duties on edible oils to help ease food inflation ahead of the festive season. Import duties on crude palm and soya oils were cut to 5% from 10%, while duties on refined variants were lowered to 27.5% from 32.5%. The rupee snapped a four-day winning streak, depreciating 15 paise to close at 95.74, amid broad-based dollar strength and elevated dollar demand from importers. Markets are also beginning to price in a rate hike from the RBI. Nifty continues to oscillate within the trading range of the large move on September 15, 2026. The 23,500–23,600 zone will continue to act as a key resistance band, while the 23,100–23,150 zone is expected to provide strong support. A sustained move above 23,600 would strengthen the bullish outlook, whereas a break below 23,100 could put renewed pressure on the index. Indian equities are poised for a lower open, on the back of weak global cues.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Nasdaq hits record high on AI-driven tech rally The Nasdaq rose 0.5% to close at a record high, its fourth consecutive day of gains, as investors kept bidding up tech valuations following well-received generative AI announcements from major mega-cap software and chip firms. The Dow Jones fell 0.4% or 185 points as bank and financial stocks came under pressure, with a flattening yield curve squeezing margins at major lenders and wealth managers. Treasury yields held roughly flat, with the 10-year near 4.95%. In energy, crude extended its recent decline on reports that Saudi Arabia is routing additional supply through the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar strengthened against most major peers. Investor attention is now turning to scheduled talks between Presidents Trump and Xi, a potential source of added volatility as markets continue digesting Fed policy and easing geopolitical tension in the Middle East. Euro slipped to around 1.1448 after Fed's Collins flagged inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will keep hiking faster than the ECB. Softer Euro Area consumer confidence (-16.5 vs. -16 expected) added pressure. The rupee extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive session, appreciating 23 paise to close at 95.59 against the US dollar yesterday. The currency strengthened after crude oil prices fell, driven by reports that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon, along with a broader recovery across Asian currencies. Nifty broke its four-session winning streak, declining 85 points to close at 23,329. The 23,500–23,600 zone is likely to act as a strong resistance band, while the 23,100–23,150 zone should continue to provide firm support. Indian markets are poised for a soft open amid sustained FPI selling.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Tech and AI Rally Push Nasdaq to Record Close as Oil Slides and Trade Hopes Rise A rally in artificial intelligence and semiconductor names drove a strong session on Wall Street, lifting the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite to its first record close since June. The S&P 500 climbed 1.5% for its best day since August 4, the Nasdaq jumped 2.3%, and the Dow Jones added 0.7%. Meta Platforms led the megacaps, surging more than 11%. Chipmakers rallied hard - Intel gained 12%, and Advanced Micro Devices rose roughly 10%, pushing AMD's market capitalisation past $1 trillion for the first time. Nvidia added 2%, and fibre-optic supplier Corning advanced nearly 6%. Sentiment was helped by a sharp pullback in crude prices. Brent crude dropped more than 3%, on hopes that diplomatic efforts could ease disruptions to Middle Eastern crude shipments. Saudi Aramco loaded roughly 14 million barrels onto seven VLCCs, pointing to a partial recovery in loadings after an earlier attack disrupted flows through the kingdom's east-west pipeline to the Red Sea. The 10-year Treasury yield also eased, tracking the move in oil. Risk appetite was further supported by upbeat signals from the U.S. and China following preliminary weekend talks covering trade, investment, and artificial intelligence. Markets are now looking to a higher-profile meeting later this week that investors expect to extend the U.S.-China trade truce currently due to expire in November. Attention is also building around an upcoming diplomatic summit expected to draw major global leaders and technology executives to discuss cross-border AI cooperation. On the geopolitical front, President Trump said he would "probably" be open to meeting Iranian President Pezeshkian on the sidelines of this week's UN General Assembly, and is also expected to meet with leaders of other Gulf states — moves seen as raising the odds of a broader diplomatic breakthrough that could help relieve the pressure on global energy supply. The rupee extended its winning streak to a third consecutive session, appreciating 6 paise to close at 95.81 against the US dollar. Easing crude oil prices and positive domestic equity-market sentiment supported the currency. Nifty extended its winning streak to four consecutive sessions, gaining 67 points to close at 23,414 yesterday. Nifty faces crucial resistance at the 23,600 level; a sustained move above it would confirm a short-term bullish trend reversal. On the downside, 23,363 and 23,100 remain the key support levels to watch. Indian markets are likely to open higher, tracking a record Wall Street rally led by tech and semiconductor stocks amid easing oil prices and rising trade-truce hopes.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Longest Weekly Losing Streak for Nifty Since 2020 US equities ended a volatile week mixed as markets digested the Fed's rate hike. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.7% on dip-buying in mega-cap semiconductor and software stocks, while the Dow fell 1.7%, its steepest weekly drop since March, and the S&P 500 slipped marginally. Indices steadied late in the week after mid-week pressure from the hawkish policy shift. The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 empowers President Trump to impose tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian oil and gas, putting India and China at risk. The move comes as India-US trade talks continue. The market will likely watch Trump and Xi meet in Washington on 24 September, their second meeting this year after May talks in Beijing that yielded no substantive agreements. Tariffs, critical minerals, AI and Taiwan are likely to dominate. With the 2025 Busan truce expiring in November, both sides face pressure to extend the pause on tariff escalation and rare-earth export controls. Indian markets ended the truncated past week in the red, falling for the sixth straight week as elevated crude oil prices and rising global bond yields weighed on investor sentiment. Despite Friday's bounce, Nifty ended the week down 0.22%, its longest weekly losing streak since 2020, while Sensex fell 0.65%. Fluctuating Brent crude oil prices and sustained elevation in global commodity costs added pressure to India’s import bill and corporate operating margins. Over the week, the Moody’s raised its FY27 real GDP growth forecast for India to 7% from 6%, citing the economy’s resilience amid the West Asia conflict. However, the agency flagged continued risks despite expecting India to maintain relatively strong growth among G20 economies and similarly rated emerging markets. Markets are tracking the NSE IPO, with listing planned for September 24, as one of the week's major domestic events. Globally, the anticipated September 24 meeting between US President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, along with India's flash PMI and infrastructure output data, will be key catalysts. Nifty closed higher on Friday, adding 75 points to finish at 23,346. The index has now retraced 271 points of the 474-point fall recorded on 15 September, meaning more than 50% of that sharp decline has been recovered, a clear breather for bulls. Broader markets have outperformed benchmarks like Nifty and Bank Nifty during this rebound, which is an encouraging sign for overall market sentiment. 23600 remains the key resistance for the Nifty; a sustained move above this level would confirm a bullish trend reversal. On the downside, the recent swing low near 23,100 appears to have formed a support base for Nifty. Indian markets are poised for a flat to mildly negative opening amid concerns over higher U.S. tariffs and the worsening geopolitical situation in the Russia–Ukraine war.

Opening Bell - Morning Commentary Fed Hikes Rates in First Increase Since 2023 The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a 3.75%–4% target range, marking its first hike since 2023. The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously, with Chair Kevin Warsh citing persistently elevated inflation and signalling that another increase remains likely this year. Attention now turns to the Bank of England's Thursday decision. Markets widely expect the BoE to hold its Bank Rate at 3.75% via a 6-3 vote, pricing in only a 30% chance of a surprise hike. Policymakers are seen as cautious ahead of the Autumn Budget, with Middle East tensions and elevated energy prices adding to inflation risk. U.S. equities reversed early gains to close lower after the Fed announcement. The Dow fell more than 600 points (-1.21%), the S&P 500 slipped 0.45%, and the Nasdaq was roughly flat. Long-dated Treasury yields pushed back above 5%, near multi-decade highs, adding to market volatility. Brent eased toward $106 after Saudi Arabia rerouted additional cargoes to Asian refiners via Oman, easing concerns over the East-West Pipeline outage, while U.S. inventories showed a smaller-than-expected draw. The U.S. Dollar Index reclaimed the 100 level as markets absorbed the Fed's hawkish guidance, weighing on G10 currencies and broader risk sentiment. EUR/USD broke below the 1.15 support zone to fresh multi-week lows, as dollar strength overwhelmed the euro despite the ECB's own 25bp hike to 2.50% earlier this month. After a sharp fall on Tuesday, Nifty took a breather, found support near Tuesday's low and gained 99 points to close at 23,217 yesterday. The index has declined more than 1,650 points from its August high of 24,772, pushing short-term oscillators into oversold territory. Nifty can rebound towards the 23,500-resistance zone, provided it holds above the recent swing low near 23,100. However, a break below 23100 could drag Nifty towards the positional support of 22700. The US House of Representatives passed a Russia sanctions bill by a vote of 262-159, clearing the way for the legislation to be sent to President Donald Trump and giving the White House authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on goods from countries that are major buyers of Russian oil and natural gas, potentially including India. Indian equities are poised for a cautious open, on the back of weak US cues.

*Imminent rate hike to test Markets.* Major *Wall Street* indexes closed *lower* after prominent *artificial intelligence* executives warned about the rapid pace of the technology's evolution. Tech leaders, including representatives from Anthropic and OpenAI, advocated *industry-wide guardrails* to address safety risks, prompting investors to rotate from semiconductor manufacturers into software firms. Global energy markets *experienced sharp upward pressure* after *drone attacks forced Saudi Arabia to shut down a major oil pipeline.* The resulting inflationary anxieties pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to touch the critical 5% threshold before it slightly retraced later in the trading session. The U.S. *Consumer Price Index (CPI)* released on Friday, September 11, showed that headline inflation rose 0.4% in August, keeping the year-over-year rate sticky at 3.4%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, also ticked up by 0.3% over the month and sat at 2.4% annually. *Gold* prices extended their losing streak to a fourth straight session, with spot bullion slipping below the $4,350/oz mark as safe-haven demand cooled. The market retreat is largely driven by expectations that the *Federal Open Market Committee* will raise *interest rates* at its upcoming monetary policy meeting to combat sticky inflation. Indian *IT ADRs surged* on US exchanges amid a major global sector rotation triggered by prominent AI leaders calling for a slowdown in advanced AI development. The Indian benchmark indices extended their losing streak for a *sixth consecutive week*, dragged down by adverse macroeconomic developments globally and persistent foreign institutional selling. Following a decline of more than *1,500 points from the recent swing high of 24,772* and with the index nearing the key support zone of *23,172–23,200*, the possibility of a technical pullback cannot be ruled out. Traders should therefore avoid fresh short positions unless the Nifty breaks support of 23,172. On the upside, *23,600* is likely the first hurdle. *Indian equities are poised for a moderately higher open, on firm Asian cues.*

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Wall Street Slides as Inflation Fears Mount* U.S. stock indexes fell on Thursday as the *Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite* all recorded losses. Equity markets faced downward pressure following wholesale inflation data that showed producer prices rising 5.4% from a year earlier. Investors are increasingly concerned that the Federal Reserve will implement an interest rate hike at its upcoming policy meeting. *Energy prices* spiked significantly as Brent crude surged above $108 per barrel. This surge reflects growing geopolitical anxieties and supply disruption fears regarding the Strait of Hormuz due to the prolonged conflict between the United States and Iran. The steep rise in energy costs has intensified overall market worries about persistent inflationary pressures. The bond market selloff accelerated, pushing the 10-year *U.S. Treasury yield up to 4.95%*, markable as its highest level since late 2023. Financial markets are adjusting to a stronger probability of monetary tightening, with federal funds futures indicating a greater than 70% chance of a rate hike next week. A strong 30-year bond auction provided only minor afternoon relief to long-term yields as short-term rates continued to scale higher. *Producer prices* in the US increased 0.4% mom in August 2026, following an upwardly revised 0.1% rise in July and in line with expectations. It is the biggest increase in three months. Excluding food and energy, producer prices increased 0.2% on the month and 4.6% on the year, compared to 0.3% and 4.3% respectively in the previous month. The *European Central Bank* raised its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% at its September meeting, in line with expectations and marking its second hike since the US-Iran war began. The ECB said the conflict continues to fuel inflationary pressures, with inflation likely to stay well above its 2% target for an extended period, aided also by resilient activity in the broader economy. The ECB held its 2026 inflation forecast at 3.0% and raised its 2027 projection to 2.5%. The *Bank of Japan* is expected to hike rates to 1.25% following a highly anticipated meeting, on Friday next week. Asian markets opened on a negative note following losses in US equities due to surging bond yields and Brent prices. The *rupee* extended its decline against the US dollar for the *third consecutive session*, depreciating 33 paise to close at 95.44. The domestic currency remained under pressure amid elevated crude oil prices, persistent foreign equity outflows, and sustained dollar demand from importers. The *Nifty* continues to remain in a *short-term downtrend*. A sustained bout of weakness could drag Nifty towards 23,172, which coincides with the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the April 2026 low of 22,182 to the August 2026 high of 24,774. On the upside, 23,600 is likely to act as key resistance zones in the near term. Markets head into the Federal Reserve's meeting next week anticipating more than a 70% chance of a rate hike. Recent economic data, including last week's strong jobs numbers and comments from Fed officials, moved the needle in favor of a more hawkish policy outlook. *All eyes on today’s US CPI and Core CPI data which we expect at 3.4% and 2.4% YoY respectively.* *Indian equities are poised for a weak open, on the back of weak global cues.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Tech Shares Lift Wall Street Off Three-Day Slide* Wall Street benchmarks managed to *break a three-day losing streak* on Wednesday as big technology gains and a slight easing in long-dated Treasury yields provided relief. The Dow Jones rose nearly 300 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both advanced roughly 0.5% in a partial rebound from early-week selloffs. *Crude oil* prices remained volatile and elevated, trading near $95 per barrel for international Brent futures. Fresh military exchanges between the United States and Iran have stoked ongoing anxieties about supply disruptions around the critical Strait of Hormuz gateway. *Cryptocurrencies* faced a downturn as Bitcoin slipped below the $77,000 threshold and Ethereum declined. Risk-off sentiment, triggered by geopolitical conflicts and mounting fears of persistent interest rate hikes, continues to limit non-yielding digital asset valuations. The *dollar index* hit a two-week high near 99.87 before easing back to the 99.50-99.60 range, with EUR/USD sliding to two-week lows near $1.15 before stabilising around $1.16. Markets now price in roughly a *65% chance of a September Fed rate hike*, up sharply from ~40% a week earlier, following hawkish signals from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The *US labour market* showed signs of moderation, with private payrolls rising by 38,000 in August, below expectations and down from a revised increase of 46,000 in July. Growth in education and health services was offset by job losses in manufacturing and several other sectors. Inflows through the RBI’s concessional swap facility reached *USD 136.4 billion* by August 31, with banks mobilising USD 127.2 billion through *FCNR(B) deposits*, significantly exceeding late-market expectations of USD 90–100 billion. Banks have also raised USD 5.3 billion through OFCBs and USD 3.9 billion through ECBs. Consequently, *surplus liquidity* in the banking system surged to ₹7.76 trillion on Tuesday from ₹6.65 trillion a day earlier, driven by continued inflows under the RBI’s FCNR(B) swap scheme. The RBI conducted an overnight VRRR auction to absorb excess liquidity, receiving bids worth ₹4.59 trillion against the notified amount of ₹5 trillion. The *Japan Credit Rating Agency (JCR)* has upgraded *India’s credit rating* by one notch from *BBB+ to A-*, it announced on Wednesday, citing India’s relatively high growth, the government’s growth-oriented policies, and the improved strength of the financial system. *Nifty* extended losses for the third consecutive session, shedding 141 points to close at 23,914 yesterday, as selling pressure persisted amid broader market weakness. The index opened nearly 200 points lower and remained under pressure through the first half, but a second-half recovery of over 100 points capped losses, with *Nifty finishing near the day’s high yesterday*. Immediate resistance is placed around 24,200. On the downside, a sustained break below 23800 level could extend the correction toward the next major support near 23,600. Indian equities are poised for a *moderately higher open*, buoyed by a sovereign rating upgrade, stable crude and currency markets, and firm cues from Wall Street and Asian peers.

*HSL Prime Research* *Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Markets Slide as Iran Tensions Escalate; Yields, Oil Surge* *U.S. equities* fell sharply as fresh strikes between the U.S. and Iran drove investors into risk-off positioning. The Nasdaq Composite dropped over 1%, while the S&P 500 and Dow each fell 0.8%, extending a third consecutive losing session. Energy markets moved aggressively on the news. *Brent crude* jumped to $95 a barrel, while WTI closed above $90 for the first time in over a month — lifting shares of Chevron and ExxonMobil. *Treasuries sold off globally, pushing the 10-year yield to 4.79%, its highest level since early 2025.* *Rising energy costs* are stoking fears of sticky inflation, adding pressure to borrowing costs and weighing on richly valued equities — complicating the Fed's next policy move. Yields in *Japan and the U.K.* also pushed toward *multi-decade highs*, while the 30-year Treasury yield hovered near a two-decade high. In Europe, annual inflation rose to 3.3%, adding to pressure on the ECB. *Gold* fell more than 3% in a single session yesterday as rising yields dented safe-haven demand, snapping its strong August rally. The *Indian rupee* is on a winning streak, logging its third straight day of gains and outperforming its Asian peers, appreciating 21 paise to close at 94.95, its highest level in two months, supported by strong domestic growth numbers even as geopolitical tensions simmer and the central bank steps in to supply dollars. *Nifty* declined for the *second straight* session, falling 24 points to close at 24,055 yesterday. A 70-point uptick during the CAS settlement helped the index protect the crucial 24,000 support. The 24,200–24,250 band is likely to remain strong resistance, with multiple moving averages clustered there. *Markets are likely to breach 24,000 at the open, and that could drag the index toward the next support band of 23,823–23,890.* *Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening, weighed down by negative global cues — weaker U.S. and Asian markets, rising bond yields, and surging energy prices.*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *US Stocks Fall on Oil, India GDP Tops Forecasts* *US indices ended lower* on Monday as a rise in *crude oil prices and renewed tensions in the Middle East* revived inflation and higher-for-longer rate concerns. The S&P 500 declined 0.33% to 7,686, while the Nasdaq Composite was relatively resilient, slipping 0.12% to 26370. *Positive economic data* have fuelled discussions about the *Federal Reserve's next policy moves*, stabilising technology and healthcare stocks. Despite the weak final session, all three major indices ended *August higher*, and the Dow recorded its *fifth consecutive monthly gain.* US government bond yields experienced *notable volatility* in response to fresh labour market and inflation indicators. Investors are demanding higher premiums as debate intensifies over whether the central bank will extend its pause or cut rates further later this year. Energy markets saw Brent and WTI crude oil balances near recent ranges amid offsetting macroeconomic forces. While production constraints from major oil-exporting nations provided a price floor, demand concerns from major industrial economies limited further upside. Data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation revealed that *India's economy expanded by 7.8% during the April-June 2026 quarter*. Driven largely by strong exports and investments, this performance surpassed consensus expectations and marked the twelfth consecutive quarter of upside growth surprises. *Surplus liquidity* in the Indian banking system surged to nearly Rs 5 lakh crore at the end of August, its highest level in over four months, boosted by month-end government spending and robust foreign currency deposits. *Bank credit* in India continued to expand at a robust pace in July, with overall bank credit rising 19.3% year-on-year, according to data released by the RBI. The acceleration was supported by strong lending growth across industry, services, agriculture and personal loans. The newly introduced *Closing Auction Session* system experienced its first significant test amid a scheduled index rebalancing yesterday. The high volume of concentrated portfolio adjustments by passive funds during the final trading window triggered wild price fluctuations across individual equities. The *Indian rupee* staged a stellar comeback, appreciating 22 paise to close at 95.16, its strongest level since August 5, overcoming an early dip triggered by Friday’s surge in the dollar index after hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. This resilient recovery was heavily anchored by timely, suspected intervention by the Reserve Bank of India, alongside a surge in dollar flows linked to the index rebalancing and the FCNR(B) schemes. During yesterday's session, *Nifty* breached the prior *swing-low support* at 24,025 and the psychological 24,000 mark; however, the second-half recovery enabled the index to close above these crucial supports. In the short term, the 24,200–24,250 zone is likely to act as strong resistance, with multiple moving averages clustered there. On the lower side, a decisive break below 23,993 could extend losses toward the next support near 23,890. *Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid negative global cues.* *Devarsh Vakil (HSL Prime Research)*

*Opening Bell - Morning Commentary* *Warsh's Jackson Hole Warning Rattles Yields* *U.S. equities* closed the week modestly higher, recovering from mid-week volatility tied to inflation data, Treasury buyback operations, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The S&P 500 gained 0.5%, while the Nasdaq and Dow each added 0.4%. Warsh maintained a *data-dependent* tone at Jackson Hole, reaffirming the 2% inflation target without providing explicit forward guidance. He stated the Fed "must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed" — *comments markets read as hawkish*, lifting expectations of a *rate hike* at the September 16 Fed meeting. Higher rates are a headwind for emerging markets, including India. Short-term Treasury yields rose in response: the *2-year* yield climbed to *4.35%* Friday afternoon from 4.23% at Thursday's close. Equities came under mild pressure, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.4% on the day. *Nvidia*'s strong quarterly results and revenue guidance drove major tech indices higher, though the broader semiconductor sector lagged, with the VanEck Semiconductor ETF slipping on doubts about the long-term returns on AI capital spending. *The dollar* posted its sharpest daily gain in two and a half months on rate-hike expectations, while safe havens sold off — spot gold fell more than 3% and silver over 4%. Crude oil rebounded from earlier weekly declines after U.S. strikes on Iranian rocket launchers near the Strait of Hormuz raised geopolitical risk. *US Q2 GDP* grew at an annualised 1.5%. Long-dated Treasury yields rose early in the week before easing on expanded Treasury buybacks of long-term debt. *Indian benchmarks* traded range-bound amid high intra-week volatility, ending *modestly lower* and extending their consolidation to a fourth straight week. The Nifty 50 fell 76 points (0.3%) last week, the Sensex closed 0.4% lower, while broader markets outperformed — the BSE 150 Mid-Cap rose 0.3%, and the BSE 250 Small-Cap gained 0.2%. The monsoon deficit narrowed sharply to 13% by late August, easing concerns over rural demand and food inflation. *Escalating US-Iran fighting has been the dominant overnight catalyst, pushing oil prices sharply higher and denting risk appetite.* Asian markets fell broadly on Monday — Japan's Nikkei down ~2%, Nasdaq futures off 0.5% — as elevated bond yields compounded the risk-off tone. DIIs continued to structurally absorb supply, offsetting FII selling — FIIs were net sellers of ~Rs 150 crore, against DII inflows of ~Rs 12,500 crore. India's *Q1 FY27 GDP* data, due on August 31, is the week's key domestic trigger and will shape risk sentiment on Dalal Street as investors gauge the pace of growth heading into the new fiscal quarter. Beyond GDP, markets will track the US jobs report, the ISM Manufacturing PMI (September 1), FII/DII flows, and monthly auto sales for reads on consumption trends. *Indian equities are poised for a subdued opening amid negative global cues.*