Project your own results of UK elecitons, including Scottish Parliament, Welsh Senedd, Northern Irish Assembly, London Assembly and Westminster. 🗳️
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I've run the latest @Moreincommon_ poll through the system but with 6 seats per constituency*:
SF 34
DUP 23
UUP 13
TUV 12
AP 12
SDLP 12
GP 1
Ind 1
Compared to 5 seats
Un: +9
Nat: +8
Other: +2
*disclaimer and constituency results below
Looking at Assembly results since 1998, very few seats have changed hands directly between a Nationalist and a Unionist recently (since 2011 a UUP gain from SF in E Antrim & a SDLP gain from UUP in LV, both 2017). The 2017 seat reduction was almost entirely at unionism's expense.
ALT A chart of movement between designations at NI Assembly elections since 1998
- FST: 3 SF, UUP, DUP, SDLP
- West Tyrone: 3 SF, SDLP, DUP, TUV
- Mid Ulster: 4 SF, DUP, TUV
- Foyle: 3 SDLP, 2 SF, UUP
- ELD: 2 SF, Ind, DUP, TUV, SDLP
Our projection on the latest @moreincommonuk poll for the NI Assembly
☘️ SF — 29
🦁 DUP — 20
🔷 UUP — 12
🤝 AP — 9
🌹 SDLP — 9
Ⓣ TUV — 7
🌱 GP — 2
⚫ Ind — 2
An SF seat in Strangford and another in North Belfast are very close on these numbers and it wouldn't be a surprise if they took at least one of them.
Our regional variation button makes them flip sometimes, but they also sometimes drop other seats.
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
The local council and Assembly elections are scheduled for Thursday 6 May 2027
Voters will receive 1 poll card with their allocated polling place. The Assembly ballot paper will be white, and the local council ballot paper will be yellow
More information from @eoni_official 👇
Devolved Election Projections retweeted
Every other electoral system would produce a result which more fairly reflects the wishes of votes, although the Supplmentary Vote is almost identically as bad as FPTP.
Our projection on the latest Norstat poll for the next general election in Scotland:
🎗️ SNP — 43
🌳 Con — 5
🔶 LD — 5
🌹 Lab — 4
This is a strong poll for the SNP which would see them take back most of the seats they lost in 2024.
Its solid for the Tories who are flat, but also for the Lib Dems who could lose a lot of votes but only 2 seats.
The Scottish Greens will also be happy with this showing.
This is the second Scottish Westminster poll to have Restore winning a decent number of votes.
After adding in this weekend's polls our Nowcast shows a Labour majority for the very first time.
🌹 Lab — 329
🌳 Con — 126
🔶 LD — 68
➡️ Ref — 48
🎗️ SNP — 46
🌼 PC — 8
☘️ SF — 6
🦁 DUP — 4
🌱 GP — 4
⚪ Others — 11
Make your own projection under any electoral system on: devolvedelections.co.uk/west…
There are a lot of tight races across both Scotland and England, with Labour leading most of marginals in England but trailing marginals North of the border.
Very few seats are on course to be won with genuine majority support. FPTP can't handle this.
