Partner and Senior Managing Director Yorkville Ives: Tech analyst on Wall Street 25+ years. Chairman of IVAI. Advisory Board of Zeta 🎯🔥🏆🐂🕶️🌎✈️
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Joined January 2019
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Dan Ives retweeted
We discuss in detail the GW buildout in the US and why this tech sell-off is a buying opportunity especially on the hyperscalers despite fears of this datacenter regulatory driven Blue Wave slowdown @CNBCClosingBell 👇
Great to be on @CNBCClosingBell with @TheJudgeCNBC discussing how to navigate this brutal market sell off with tech stocks under massive pressure.
We remain bullish on the AI Revolution buildout…which is still gonna happen in the US just at a slower pace given the Blue Wave with Capex now peaking next year instead of 2028/2029 📺🌊👇🐂 @CNBC
cnbc.com/video/2026/11/05/da…
Dan Ives retweeted
The AI data center buildout worries remain a huge worry across the tech landscape and it’s a buying opportunity for the tech winners that are way oversold here given fears @CNBCClosingBell 👇🐂
Great to be on @CNBCClosingBell with @TheJudgeCNBC discussing how to navigate this brutal market sell off with tech stocks under massive pressure.
We remain bullish on the AI Revolution buildout…which is still gonna happen in the US just at a slower pace given the Blue Wave with Capex now peaking next year instead of 2028/2029 📺🌊👇🐂 @CNBC
cnbc.com/video/2026/11/05/da…
Dan Ives retweeted
Great to be on @CNBCClosingBell with @TheJudgeCNBC discussing how to navigate this brutal market sell off with tech stocks under massive pressure.
We remain bullish on the AI Revolution buildout…which is still gonna happen in the US just at a slower pace given the Blue Wave with Capex now peaking next year instead of 2028/2029 📺🌊👇🐂 @CNBC
cnbc.com/video/2026/11/05/da…
Dan Ives retweeted
Earlier, governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028. $NVDA
Dan Ives retweeted
Yes! Why we reiterated our 27/28 Capex Estimates. Because the building of AI datacenters will continue. What is underway will be completed.
And those with secured power will benefit here as well. However, the longer-term deals will come with new terms that will be seen as favorable by the newly elected Governor. (This will happen in other states as well)
Furthering our point that 27/28 will likely be more status quo and the show goes on. It is in the Dems best interest to keep Texas booming into the presidential election of 2028.
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
Dan Ives retweeted
The governor-elect of Texas, Gina Hinojosa, has explicitly said that all currently permitted datacenters in Texas will be allowed to finish construction. This essentially covers all of the 2027 and likely well into 2028.
She is going to pass laws that ensure that all *newly* permitted datacenters going forward for delivery in 2028/2029 will pay taxes, commit to no increase in power prices for consumers, don’t impact water availability for people, be constructed with union labor and give “Texans a seat at the table.”
Sounds reasonable. She doesn’t want to lose a lot of good blue collar jobs and property taxes for small towns in rural Texas.
Datacenter commentary starts at 6:30 in this interview.
Also attaching her official campaign position from her website in the next post.
Sidenote: After watching a bunch of her speeches and interviews, I do think she is a political talent and probably has a future in national politics.
youtu.be/D-T6H3b8ZeE?is=mEWu…
Dan Ives retweeted
Will be discussing this way oversold tech sector and discuss why to own the tech AI winners despite fears on @CNBCClosingBell at 3 pm with @TheJudgeCNBC 👇
Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon…Free cash flow will trough in 1H2027 and starting in the 2H of next year will start to show a trajectory towards a major rebound in 2028 and massive FCF ramp in 2029-2030. The capital raises in Big Tech from the debt/equity/ATMs, etc will likely be ~25% lower over the next year as the capex trajectory over the next few years. Worries about AI overbuild and bubble now thrown out window, good for tech names/winners.
Dan Ives retweeted
$MSFT $META $GOOGL $AMZN - microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon…Free cash flow will trough in 1H2027 and starting in the 2H of next year will start to show a trajectory towards a major rebound in 2028 and massive FCF ramp in 2029-2030.
The capital raises in Big Tech from the debt/equity/ATMs, etc will likely be ~25% lower over the next year as the capex trajectory over the next few years.
Worries about AI overbuild and bubble now thrown out window, good for tech names/winners. Dan Ives
Dan Ives retweeted
Microsoft $MSFT is Yorkville Ives’ top software pick for 2027, with Dan Ives pointing to accelerating Azure growth and enterprise AI demand that still exceeds supply. The bull case is getting stronger — but so is the spending required to support it.
investing.com/news/stock-mar…
Dan Ives retweeted
Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon…Free cash flow will trough in 1H2027 and starting in the 2H of next year will start to show a trajectory towards a major rebound in 2028 and massive FCF ramp in 2029-2030. The capital raises in Big Tech from the debt/equity/ATMs, etc will likely be ~25% lower over the next year as the capex trajectory over the next few years. Worries about AI overbuild and bubble now thrown out window, good for tech names/winners.
Putting all the pieces together we believe Big Tech capex growth rate now peaks in 2027 vs our previous view that would not happen until 2028/2029. While Big Tech and hyperscaler capex should still easily exceed $1 trillion in 2027 the growth rate into 2028 will clearly moderate significantly as the data center buildout comes at a much slower place given the political map especially in the state of Texas🌊🎯
Dan Ives retweeted
Dan Ives bearish AI, what in the h*** $NVDA $MU
So here is what he actually said:
Following the November midterms, Ives flagged a political and operational "speed bump" for the AI infrastructure buildout.
He noted that political shifts could slow down or delay the construction of dozens of U.S. AI data centers and force Big Tech to bring forward its peak capital expenditure (capex) growth timeline to 2027. H
owever, rather than viewing it as a structural bear case, he spun it as a blessing in disguise:
The "Slow Down" Benefit: He argues that forcing Big Tech to hit the brakes slightly on the frantic, "arms race" capital burn is actually a positive. It eases market concerns about excessive financial engineering and runaway infrastructure spending.
The Core Thesis is Intact: He is still pounding the table on his top tech and software winners (like $MSFT Microsoft, $PLTR Palantir, and $AAPL Apple), maintaining that enterprise monetization and software demand are still expanding aggressively.
In short, he hasn't joined the bear camp—he’s just acknowledging that the frantic pace of the infrastructure buildout is about to get a regulatory and political speed check.
nitter.cf/rdd147/status/21181378…
Dan Ives retweeted
Putting all the pieces together we believe Big Tech capex growth rate now peaks in 2027 vs our previous view that would not happen until 2028/2029. While Big Tech and hyperscaler capex should still easily exceed $1 trillion in 2027 the growth rate into 2028 will clearly moderate significantly as the data center buildout comes at a much slower place given the political map especially in the state of Texas🌊🎯
Dan Ives retweeted
DAN IVES SAYS THE MIDTERM RESULTS WILL SLOW THE AI DATA CENTER BUILDOUT
He now expects Big Tech's capex growth to peak in 2027, earlier than his previous 2028 to 2029 view.
- 10% to 20% of the 800 to 1,000 planned US AI data centers could be scrapped or face long delays
- Big Tech's stock and debt raising could be about 25% lower over the next year
- Losers: neoclouds, power suppliers, and some chip and memory companies
- Winners: Apple $AAPL, Meta $META, Microsoft $MSFT, Google $GOOGL, Amazon $AMZN, Palantir $PLTR, Snowflake $SNOW, CrowdStrike $CRWD, Palo Alto Networks $PANW, Nvidia $NVDA
He says his overall bullish AI view hasn't changed. He's just more selective.
Dan Ives retweeted
Great to be talking tech stocks, AI Revolution, and the impact from the Blue Wave on the datacenter buildout in the US with friends @realsteveeisman @gilluria 🎯🥊🧱🏆🐂🌊
Dan Ives retweeted
Big Tech will have to 'slow down' AI spending, but the revolution will still happen: @divestech @seekingalpha
Dan Ives retweeted
Tech analyst Dan Ives (@DivesTech) estimating a 10% cut to data center construction after the blue wave.
Democratic blue tidal wave across the Senate and House was a seismic shift that will have a negative impact on the pace of the AI Revolution buildout in the US over the next few years. Will slow the pace of the planned 800 to 1,000 datacenters across the US fueling the AI Revolution…some investors will like the “slower pace”…others view it as adding risk. We estimate 10% of datacenters will not happen now
Dan Ives retweeted
Tech investors know the AI Revolution end game not changing and that is bullish…slowing the pace down of datacenters and Capex is also seen as bullish = less Capex worries which helps Big Tech stocks 🎯
Democratic blue tidal wave across the Senate and House was a seismic shift that will have a negative impact on the pace of the AI Revolution buildout in the US over the next few years. Will slow the pace of the planned 800 to 1,000 datacenters across the US fueling the AI Revolution…some investors will like the “slower pace”…others view it as adding risk. We estimate 10% of datacenters will not happen now
