Historian of the Cold War and after. Rupert Murdoch Distinguished Professor @KissingerCenter @SAISHopkins. Now on Substack https://nitter.cf/t.co/loAavCmK89
Washington, Bologna, Nanjing
Joined January 2014
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I will soon be starting a new academic project: a history of the war between Russia and Ukraine. I am to have the book published by 2032 (10th anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion).
Incidentally, through my work with @petermsies for the Russia-Ukraine project, we have determined that Putin, in his recent interactions, has not gone full Pecheneg on his interlocutors. In fact, he has often been business-like and stayed focused on key issues at hand.
It was the most constructive call with Putin since 2021. Why was it misreported by @FT so badly? Euro diplos often want to derail initiatives they don’t like or simply blabber 3nd hand gossip. Putin doesn’t need to lecture @alexstubb Stubb on Russian history. Stubb in particular and Finnish leaders in general know that history.
The key deliverable from the call was Baltic deescalation and a new, functional channel run by competent people, for a change, to support the Ukraine talks. Kyiv and DC were on board and involved. EU rightfully wasn’t.
Two postures emerge in Europe: in Britain, Denmark and Poland some think that the longer the war lasts the more Russia is drained.
Elsewhere there’s another view: the longer the war lasts the greater the potential for conflict with Russia, whose armaments industry grows by the month.
Sergey Radchenko retweeted
A review of The Cauldron @ft today: “A riveting look at the cultures, ideas and maddening complexity that made the modern region, both incredibly erudite and marvellously well written; the book sings…. it is a riveting deeply absorbing work that stands out for the grand vistas that it opens up before diligent readers….”
@DrRadchenko @wnbooks @Ed_Critica @KlettCottaTweet @CappelenDamm @Planetadelibros and @AAKnopf
The Cauldron by Simon Sebag Montefiore — how the Middle East became a fiery brew ft.trib.al/BLYTNfF
To understand how Russia has used energy for political purposes, check out my new book, Power Play. It's an eye-watering story. From the 1940s to the present. Available for pre-order now.
NEW: We got the list of “Business Deals” the US and Russia are discussing.
They include a potential return by US companies to the Russian oil market as part of wider talks to end Putin’s war, including JVs in Sakhalin and restoring the Druzhba pipeline:
ft.com/content/d703aaae-f607…
My review of @simonmontefiore’s brilliant new book on the Middle East. A gripping read!
The Cauldron by Simon Sebag Montefiore — how the Middle East became a fiery brew ft.trib.al/6qz48mN
This is an interesting point by Zelensky, and I tend to agree. What we have learned from the five years of war is that the U.S. was, unsurprisingly, exceptionally worried about being drawn into the conflict with Russia inadvertently (by one of its allies invoking Art. 5).
On the Kushner/GRU story. What impresses me are the MIVD. I mean, these are the same guys who, as we have learned from @bopanc's great book, discovered that the Ukrainians were going to blow up Nord Stream months before it actually happened. Badass, you'll have to agree.
Excited to take part in this discussion with @noam_dworman. Russia/Ukraine, Trump, prospects for peace, and lots more. Oh, and Boris Johnson and the persistent myth that he forced Ukraine to continue the war. Also, see my beard? Already gone today. Damn. A week's work.
Has Trump Sold Out Ukraine? ╎With Russia Expert
@DrRadchenko
0:00 Dan's still out; Noam's 2017 Crimea clips: "sanctions till the end of time"
13:40 Sergey Radchenko on Trump's Russian diesel deal and the six requests Zelensky ignored
28:46 Witkoff calls Putin a "great humanitarian": what's the strategy?
36:20 Will Russia roll over Europe? Munich, Kissinger's last word, NATO's empty promise
44:15 Should a victim compromise? Donbas, security guarantees, did the West provoke Crimea
57:40 Why Putin invaded: humiliation, hubris, Obama's Atlantic interview, Afghanistan
1:08:36 The Istanbul talks, the Boris Johnson myth, and the verdict on Trump
1:24:49 Post-game: Dave Smith, the Absolut Pussy ad, Candace Owens, Theo Von
Why did Zelensky ignore six requests from Trump to stop hitting Russian refineries, and does the Russian diesel deal that followed make sense while the Iran war has fuel at crisis prices? What was Steve Witkoff doing calling Putin a "great humanitarian" this week? Did NATO expansion provoke the invasion, or is Putin just a man who can't stand being slighted? Is Russia Hitler's Germany, or is Munich an overused analogy. Is Trump is saving Zelensky from himself?
I have spent the last year+ researching the origins of the war for a future book. Relatedly, I have co-led a Stanford/Hoover team in interviewing dozens of key decision makers. I can say with a high level of confidence that this take is unmitigated bullshit.
Indeed--grateful to H.E. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu for his hospitality. The project continues.
@DrRadchenko and I received a very warm welcome in Ankara from H.E. Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Türkiye's Foreign Minister from 2014 to 2023.
Sergey Radchenko retweeted
The Rise of the Russian Hawks: Ideology and Politics from the Late Soviet Union to Putin's Russia, Juliette Faure | Reviewed by Sergey Radchenko at doi.org/10.1093/psquar/qqag0….
Reading @simonmontefiore's new book on the Middle East. It's so much fun. Check this out, on Khomeini.
Sergey Radchenko retweeted
And if you can't get enough Cold War history, I spoke to Zubok and Radchenko about the former's book.
This episode is appropriately titled 'The Owl of Minerva'
history-as-it-happens.simple…
