Insights on Security Dynamics & Militancy from the Afghanistan-Pakistan Region.
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Perspectives | Rhetoric as Strategy: How Narrative Framing Sustains Escalation in Afghanistan–Pakistan Relations
Two rounds of talks have failed to stop the escalation. Why? Out later this week.
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From Code to Doctrine: TTP’s Leadership Learns to Think Like Its Adversary @Durand_Dispatch
In 2018, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan issued a code of conduct to hold its movement together. In 2026, it published a booklet on how militant groups survive or collapse. Amid challenges to Noor Wali Mehsud’s authority, it offers a window into the group’s thinking on survival.
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Strategic Messaging | From Code to Doctrine: Tehrik-i-Taliban's Leadership Learns to Think Like Its Adversary
The TTP calls civilian harm a strategic error. In August, it claimed a bombing of an anti-militancy rally in Swat.
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Pakistan Security Monitor | October 26 to November 1
Afghan Taliban fire killed a civilian at Angoor Adda; it was the first direct border fighting since the KP emergency began.
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Strategic Messaging | From Code to Doctrine: Tehrik-i-Taliban's Leadership Learns to Think Like Its Adversary
The TTP's new booklet opens not with scripture but with a RAND study. Why? Out Tuesday.
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This week at The Durand Dispatch: 2 new pieces on Afghan refugees and the crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Read them below.
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Crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan: From Protest March to Emergency Rule
In weeks, KP went from planning a protest march to being run from Islamabad under a constitutional emergency.
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Perspectives | Understanding the Crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Three Weeks That Reshaped the Province
One report counted 556 violence-linked deaths in KP in the third quarter; that is 39 percent of Pakistan's total.
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Perspectives | Understanding the Crisis in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Three Weeks That Reshaped the Province
In 22 days, a province went from a protest march to being run from Islamabad. How? Out Wednesday.
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Perspectives | Nowhere Left to Go: Afghan Refugees Between an American Retreat and an Iranian War
Only five Afghans have been admitted to the U.S. since October 2025. More than 1,100 remain stranded at a camp in Qatar.
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Perspectives | Nowhere Left to Go: Afghan Refugees Between an American Retreat and an Iranian War
Washington once airlifted its Afghan allies to safety. What is it offering them now? Out Monday.
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Pakistan Security Monitor, Oct 12-18: Parliament ratified KP governor's rule; Balochistan saw abductions of police recruits and a commissioner.
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Strategic Messaging | October 2026 (Vol. 3, Issue 1): Militant Media Intelligence Assessment
The TTP claimed 334 attacks in September, down from 406 in August. Its claims also reached South Punjab, interior Sindh and Balochistan.
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For over a year, the TTP and AQIS were moving closer. Now they are in open confrontation. Our October Strategic Messaging militant media intelligence assessment issue tracks the fallout across militant media. Out later this week.
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The BLF's new all-female unit is built to fight repeatedly, not to die in one attack. Its stated targets: the Pakistani army and "patriarchal social structures" in Baloch society.
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The Baloch insurgency has a new kind of fighting force. Our next Strategic Messaging piece, "Karima's Heirs," looks at what it signals for the conflict. Out Wednesday.
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Sept 28-Oct 4: Pakistan struck militant camps in Afghanistan's Kunar and Helmand; government-PTI talks deadlocked as PTI's long march began.
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This week at The Durand Dispatch: 2 new pieces on a police boycott in Bannu and a contest over militant authority. A thread.
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Strategic Messaging Spotlight: A Contest Over Authority
The TTP faces legitimacy challenges from Jamaat-ul-Ahrar and a recruitment push from ISKP.
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