Erik Thulin retweeted
☀️New Postdoc Opportunity!☀️Madalina Vlasceanu and I are looking for a postdoc to come join us at the Environmental Social Sciences Department at Stanford’s School of Sustainability. See link below for more information and to apply. Deadline is Nov. 1!
forms.gle/88b7PjneBTAzsjrTA
Ryan is saving people's lives at around $5,000 each, and you could too. That's pretty cool stuff.
givewell.org/international/t…
I'm hesitant to post but the @givingwhatwecan people have started to convince me that the upsides probably outweigh the down. Anyways, thanks to some youth indiscretion (stock picking) I was in a weird position & was able to give like 16k mosquito nets this year. Thanks Shopify.
Erik Thulin retweeted
If 92% of charging stations will be in the home as this research suggests, this really isn’t much of a network externality problem. Very different from the original cars and gas stations energy.gov/eere/vehicles/art…
Erik Thulin retweeted
Is there a good, non-invasive way to manage the risk of infection from daycare? It seems like a nontrivial drag on worker productivity
My favourite study of "how often does a family with small children get a respiratory infection?" is this one, from the USA:
doi.org/10.1093/cid/civ486
Children <5y have one of 16 common respiratory viruses detected in a nasal swab 50% of the year!
Erik Thulin retweeted
.@rare_org in the @washingtonpost! Great column by @MJ_Coren on how your individual climate actions are amplified by those around you, w/ research and insights from my colleagues @EThulin and @brookebf.
To quote the Beastie Boys, ch-check it out.
washingtonpost.com/climate-e…
I'm winding down my use of Twitter, moving to Threads. I will probably post new papers and job postings here, but that is about it.
If you want to join me on Threads you can find me at the same username: @ethulin
If you are on Threads, please feel free to reply w/ your handle!
Erik Thulin retweeted
Prediction markets on Wagner Group / Prigozhin situation...
Coup or regime change in 🇷🇺 by 2024:
⬆️5%, up +2 points from 3% on @metaculus
Civil war/'large-scale armed conflict' in 🇷🇺 by 2030:
⬆️55%, up +25 points‼️ on @metaculus
Putin stays in power...
◦ by Jul:⬇️95%, down -4 points on @Polymarket
◦ by Jul:⬇️95%, down -4 points on @InsightForecast
◦ by Oct: 91%, no change on @GJ_Open
◦ by 2024:⬇️72%, down -18 points‼️ on @Hypermind_com
◦ by 2024:⬇️89%, down -3 points on @ManifoldMarkets
◦ by 2024:⬇️92%, down -1 point on @metaculus
◦ by 2024: 93%, no change on @INFERpub
Erik Thulin retweeted
Stu is fighting the good fight.
The argument that breastfeeding has major benefits is based on little evidence and the continued insistence it matters so much does little more than shame women who struggle to breastfeed.
Let's look at the causal evidence for IQ.
Here's some:
Here's my article on the ridiculous UK laws on baby formula - we restrict it and shame mothers for using it for no good scientific reason: inews.co.uk/news/baby-formul…
Erik Thulin retweeted
Great Awokening is a global phenomenon. No evidence it started in US media. Analysis of 98 million news articles across 36 countries quantifies. Exception: state-controlled media from China/Russia/Iran using wokeness terminology to criticize/mock the West
davidrozado.substack.com/p/g…
Erik Thulin retweeted
Thrilled to see our replication of Lost in the Mall published in Memory!
With a 5x larger sample, we replicate the original findings + find high rates of self-reported false memories and beliefs & that mock jurors believed the mall event happened.
tandfonline.com/eprint/QNVY8…
Erik Thulin retweeted
Interesting calculation by @renebekkers on the cost of grant applications:
- 242 researchers applied for a total of €46.5M in funding (2019 NWO Vici grant)
- 87% did not get the grant
- total time spend on applications ≈ €18.7M
renebekkers.wordpress.com/20…
But actually do it.
I usually use frequentist statistics. But something I love from bayesian stats culture is the widespread use of 0.89 as a threshold, which I believe @rlmcelreath started.
Why use 0.89 instead of a round 0.90? To remind ourselves how arbitrary the cutoff is.
Null-hypothesis testing, and its handmaiden the p-value, is a paramount tool for applied social science. But it's been stretched to the breaking point—so we're proposing a new threshold for statistical significance: p < .042.
ideas42.org/wp-content/uploa…
Erik Thulin retweeted
New Preprint!!
Why are Moral Licensing studies failing to replicate?
We test two alternative theories using #MetaAnalysis and find larger #morallicensing effects when people are watched! Suggests an interpersonal mechanism 🧵⬇️ [1/7]
psyarxiv.com/tmhe9/ @OSFramework
Erik Thulin retweeted
Our new paper with @Urb_Jan and Markéta Braun Kohlová on the effect of prior pro-environmental behavior on a subsequent judgment of immoral behavior is now out: journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.… [OA]
