@Eaglecel
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Joined November 2014
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DoubleClick retweeted
I will say.... I look at A LOT of individual stock charts... And the setups all across #Tech appear quite constructive...
Seeing lots of volatility squeezes and compressions as well...
When these resolve, they can mark the beginning of a period of increased directional movement and potentially stronger trends... 👀
DoubleClick retweeted
$SPX
October started with a simple map.
7779 above.
7508 below.
Four days later, here we are.
Price has marched straight back into 7779 and the descending trendline from the August high.
Here comes the test.
Break it, and the door opens for expansion.
Reject it, and we're still inside the range.
No prediction needed.
Price decides.
$SPY $QQQ
DoubleClick retweeted
The best performing stocks in the S&P 500 over the last 5, 10, 15, and 20 years...
DoubleClick retweeted
The worrying part to me is that Trump is most likely looking at the $QQQ $SPY and maybe $DJI $IWM
If that’s the case there might be a fully wrong understanding of how bad the situation actually is for markets as a whole.
The average individual stock holder is in massive pain and has been for a while.
The AI trade is holding the markets up with nothing underneath.
The rubber band is ready to snap back with the entire market if an end to the war is found, that said if there is no urgency through a misunderstanding of markets through a sole focus on indices, then the bond market flashing red lights will be ignored and there is a real chance the rubber band breaks and we get a true recession/slowdown.
This will be blamed on democrats as always but make no mistake, this was fully because of the Iran war directly through Oil prices and more precisely because of what allies now have to do to stabilize the impact like Japan.
Another extreme reading on the NYSI, and it's still falling.
Breadth is now more oversold than at the April 2026 bottom and the April 2025 low, and it's closing in on October 2023 levels.
It's not far from the 2022 bear market lows either.
For context, here's how far the S&P 500 fell in each of those periods:
April 2026: -9%
April 2025: -20%
October 2023: -10%
DoubleClick retweeted
How long can the market hold up with such weak breadth?
S&P 500 Price and NYSE, SPX, Mid and Small Cap AD Lines
Source: Stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 made a new high in August 2026, as did market breadth, as measured by the Advance-Decline Line of the NYSE Common Stock Index, the S&P 500, and the S&P Mid and Small Cap Index (red arrows).
Since late August, market breadth has deteriorated broadly, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq trade near their highs, held up by only a few heavily weighted stocks. Midcap and small-cap averages have dropped sharply.
Keep a close eye on the NYSE, S&P 500, midcap, and small-cap advance-decline lines for signs of improvement to support higher stock prices and a broader rally.
Continued weak breadth would suggest that the next rise may be only a relief rally and more vulnerable to reversing. #stockmarket
DoubleClick retweeted
The JPM collar just rolled. New strikes for December 31:
Short call: 8060
Put spread: 7245 / 6110
Size: about 23,300 contracts, plus a 3,000-lot copy in SPX
Price: ~$309.6 million
FinTwit will now call 8060 the ceiling for the fourth quarter. Here's what the data says about that.
We tested every JPM collar call strike from 2019 through 2025. SPX broke through the call in 17 of 25 quarters, 68% of the time. When it broke, it went an average of 212 points above and stayed there for about 30 trading days.
Last quarter is the latest example. The Q2 call strike was 6865. SPX closed June 30 at 7,440, 575 points above it.
8060 is a number to know. It isn't a number to trade around.
$SPX $SPY $QQQ
DoubleClick retweeted
Chart of the day: #RUT
Now the real test comes as both trend and momentum are extended in small caps
*Schwab does not recommend the use of technical analysis as a sole means of investment research
*All names and market data shown below are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security
*Chart source: thinkorswim
DoubleClick retweeted
First Williams and now Jefferson urging patience for another rate hike.
Predictably, longer-term yields (and SOFR implied rates) fall.
All it takes is some dovish Fed speak to "control the long end."
DoubleClick retweeted
bonus points b/c the 2y fell...
We get to kill to macro misunderstandings:
1) Hike to control the long end AND
2) The Fed follows the 2y.
These may seem like petty things, but they are really at the heart of how (in)accurate your macro mental model is.
DoubleClick retweeted
A VIX crush Friday would be great! We need the first five days to close positive for the S&P 500.
When the first day and the first five days of Q4 closed positive, the rest of Q4 was positive 90.6% of the time.
DoubleClick retweeted
There are 8 Fed speakers today. 8 more than needed.
Dogs don't talk and everyone loves them. Fed officials could learn a lot from this.
DoubleClick retweeted
Everyone thinks we rip in the last hour because "quarterly expiration"
do you even ai?
DoubleClick retweeted
Price changes sentiment. Price creates the narrative.
Critical thinking matters more than ever in today's markets. Think outside the box.
META was "dead" at $520. Now it's a "must-own leader" at $750 because of MUSE.
"AI is going to destroy all of software." So what's the narrative now that $IGV has rallied 40%+ off the lows?
"Bonds are dead." What will the narrative be if $TLT starts rallying from here?
"MU has the most bullish fundamentals ever" at $1,255 after earnings. Yet when it bottomed at $750, "all the growth was priced in." Fundamentals always look best at the top.
"Everyone has to own hard assets like gold and silver because of the debt," right as they peaked this year.
Skate to where the puck is going, not where it's been.
