@EmmaStockNotes

Finding exceptional listed companies by comparing them with the whole market. Good is relative. 20 years in banking. Co-founder, Top Percentile.

Hong Kong
Joined February 2026
Replying to @burrytracker
You didn’t need to find Nvidia. You just needed to buy Microsoft, let it compound at ~15% a year plus dividends, and get rich slowly over 25 years. Buying quality and being patient pays off.
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We hear stock ideas every day. “Buy the dip.” “Value trap.” “The market is overreacting.” You get interested and check the numbers. But how do you judge the quality of the whole business, and where it stands against everything else you could own? 20% revenue growth sounds good. How good? 70% gross margin sounds excellent. But does that make the business excellent? What about profitability, cash generation, returns on capital, the balance sheet, reinvestment and growth together? A company can look exceptional on one measure and ordinary on five others. Comparing one number is relatively easy. Comparing the quality of an entire business consistently against thousands of other businesses is a very different problem. That was the problem we wanted to solve. Take financial information no one person can process across an entire market and make it comparable. Company by company. Metric by metric. Same methodology. Then answer two big questions: How good is this business? How is the market pricing it? That’s the perspective Top Percentile gives you. A consistent way to see where any company sits against the rest of the market. Here are the top 10 mega-cap companies by Business Excellence, with their valuation percentile alongside. Top Percentile is free to explore. Link in bio.
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Quick look at the week: the S&P finished almost exactly where it started, but it wasn’t a quiet week. The Fed raised rates for the first time in three years, the 10-year Treasury briefly moved above 5%, and oil stayed above $100. Lennar showed what higher borrowing costs mean in practice: affordability remains a major constraint, new orders fell 9% and the company cut its full-year delivery outlook. AI had its own wobble after calls to slow development hit semiconductor stocks early in the week. Meta pushed back, with Zuckerberg arguing companies should manage AI safety themselves, while Muse climbed to No. 1 on the US App Store. The sector recovered later, but the debate over how far AI development should be allowed to run is clearly getting louder. Lastly, Warren Buffett stepped down as Berkshire chairman, with his son Howard taking over as non-executive chairman. That’s it for the week. Have a great weekend everyone.
↘️ MARKET WEEKLY UPDATE (1W performance): S&P 500: -0.08% 🔴 Nasdaq 100: +0.94% 🟢 Dow Jones: -1.69% 🔴 VIX: 14.8 | -1.03 pts (-6.50%) 🟢⬇️ Leaders: Health Care +1.83%, Tech +1.03% Laggards: Utilities -3.04%, Financials -2.43%
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STOCK STREAKS Longest winning streaks 1. 🔥 FRO 9d 2. 📈 PG 6d 3. 📈 TEM 5d Longest losing streaks 1. ⛈️ RJF 9d 2. ⛈️ CRS 8d 3. ⛈️ LII 8d Will these streaks continue today?
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Here are the large-cap consumer companies making the most money. Anything here surprise you?
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The market digested the Fed hike quickly. Oil and long yields eased, while tech took the lead.
✈️ MARKET UPDATE AT CLOSE S&P 500: +1.14% 🟢 Nasdaq 100: +1.73% 🟢 Dow Jones: +0.61% 🟢 VIX: 15.5 | -2.25 pts (-12.70%) 🟢⬇️ Leaders: Tech +2.25%, Discretionary +1.10% Laggards: Comm Services -0.58%, Financials -0.09%
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Buffett. Graham. Lynch. Fisher. There’s plenty of great investing wisdom out there. The trick is finding the ideas worth carrying with you. Over the past 20 weeks, I’ve been taking you through my investing library, one book at a time. No book summaries. Just one idea from each that I think is useful when making your own investment decisions. Why Buffett thinks great opportunities can appear when excellent companies are surrounded by unusual circumstances. Why Chancellor shows that strong growth can attract so much capital that it eventually destroys returns. Why Fisher thinks that, if you chose the business well in the first place, the time to sell is “almost never.” There are plenty more still to come. And I’d love to hear what’s your favourite investing book, and why? Here are my first 20. You can click through the chain in the replies below 👇
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Here is the chain starting with Book #20 nitter.cf/emmastocknotes/status/…
Book #20: The Warren Buffett Way by Robert G. Hagstrom “In public, the CEO who misleads others may eventually mislead himself in private.” -Warren Buffett Buffett’s point goes beyond honest shareholder communication. Candor can be a window into how management makes decisions. A CEO who can admit a bad acquisition, missed target or flawed assumption has a better chance of correcting it. A CEO who keeps rationalising poor outcomes risks eventually believing its own story. That makes failure unusually revealing for investors. When something goes wrong, does management acknowledge it, explain what changed and adjust? Or keep finding reasons the original decision was still right? A management team’s ability to admit it was wrong can tell you a lot about its ability to learn and allocate capital rationally. One idea from a great investing book each week. Book #21 next Sunday.
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First Fed hike since 2023: +25bp, with another likely this year. Stocks sold off during Warsh’s press conference, then recovered a good part of the drop before the close.
↘️ MARKET UPDATE AT CLOSE S&P 500: -0.45% 🔴 Nasdaq 100: +0.02% 🟢 Dow Jones: -1.21% 🔴 VIX: 17.6 | +0.40 pts (+2.33%) 🔴⬆️ Leaders: Tech +0.10%, Health Care +0.07% Laggards: Energy -2.88%, Financials -1.62%
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$LEN Lennar is down 3% after earnings. Revenue and EPS missed, but the bigger weakness was demand. New orders missed guidance and management cut the full-year delivery target again. HEADLINE PRINT 🔴 Revenue: $8.05B vs $8.31B expected 🔴 Adjusted EPS: $1.23 vs $1.29 expected WHAT CHANGED 🔴 New orders: 20,879 vs 21,000–22,000 guided, down 9% YoY 🔴 FY26 deliveries: 80K–81K, cut from 82K–83K 🟡 Q4 gross margin guide: 15.5–16.0% WHY THIS EARNINGS MATTERS ◆ Q3 deliveries landed within guidance, but the forward picture weakened. Orders missed Lennar’s own range, the full-year delivery target was cut again and Q4 margins are now guided to 15.5–16.0%. The volume-versus-margin trade-off has not become easier. REMAINING QUESTION ◆ Can Lennar hold volume without further margin pressure if affordability remains this difficult?
$LEN Lennar earnings tonight. Housing affordability has worsened again just as Lennar was starting to see incentives ease and margins recover. Stock: down 22.1% YTD | down 7.8% over 1 month | down 4.9% at last earnings The chart captures how sharply the cycle has turned. Revenue growth has moved into negative territory, while higher mortgage rates are putting fresh pressure on affordability. WHAT HAPPENED AT LAST EARNINGS ◆ Incentives fell to 12.9% from 14.1% sequentially and gross margin improved to 15.6%, while Lennar continued to prioritise volume. WHAT HAPPENED LATELY ◆ Mortgage rates have moved higher again, making the affordability challenge Lennar is trying to work around even tougher. WHAT MATTERS THIS EARNINGS ◆ Whether Lennar can stay on its 16% gross-margin path without sacrificing its 20,500–21,500 home-delivery target as affordability worsens again.
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$LEN Lennar earnings tonight. Housing affordability has worsened again just as Lennar was starting to see incentives ease and margins recover. Stock: down 22.1% YTD | down 7.8% over 1 month | down 4.9% at last earnings The chart captures how sharply the cycle has turned. Revenue growth has moved into negative territory, while higher mortgage rates are putting fresh pressure on affordability. WHAT HAPPENED AT LAST EARNINGS ◆ Incentives fell to 12.9% from 14.1% sequentially and gross margin improved to 15.6%, while Lennar continued to prioritise volume. WHAT HAPPENED LATELY ◆ Mortgage rates have moved higher again, making the affordability challenge Lennar is trying to work around even tougher. WHAT MATTERS THIS EARNINGS ◆ Whether Lennar can stay on its 16% gross-margin path without sacrificing its 20,500–21,500 home-delivery target as affordability worsens again.
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$TCOM Trip. com is roughly flat after earnings. Revenue slowed as guided, while international growth remained strong. A known $763M antitrust penalty pushed GAAP earnings negative. HEADLINE PRINT 🟡 Revenue: $2.3B, +6% YoY, within the 3–8% guide 🟢 Non-GAAP EPS: $1.07 vs $1.01 a year ago 🔴 Adjusted EBITDA margin: 29% vs 33% a year ago WHAT CHANGED 🟢 International platform revenue: +50%+ YoY 🔴 Transportation ticketing revenue: -1% YoY and -12% QoQ, amid higher energy prices, geopolitics and compliance adjustments WHY IT MATTERS ◆ The quarter confirmed the slowdown management had already warned about, but the weakness was not broad-based. International growth remained strong while transportation softened. The $763M penalty explains the GAAP loss rather than a collapse in underlying profitability. REMAINING QUESTION ◆ Can growth reaccelerate as Trip. com implements the required hotel changes without weakening the economics of the business?
$TCOM Trip. com earnings tonight. The stock has been crushed, yet it still screens as an unusually strong business. Stock: down 45.7% YTD | down 13.1% over 1 month | down 11.0% at last earnings The chart is what makes this interesting. Trip. com still stands out on both business quality and valuation, but that only matters if the recent growth slowdown proves temporary. WHAT HAPPENED AT LAST EARNINGS ◆ Q1 revenue grew 17% and international platform bookings rose 65%, but Q2 revenue growth was guided down to just 3–8% as macro headwinds and compliance adjustments weighed on the outlook. WHAT HAPPENED LATELY ◆ July’s antitrust ruling requires changes to hotel exclusivity and pricing practices, creating a separate test for the economics of the platform. WHAT MATTERS THIS EARNINGS ◆ Whether the sharp Q2 growth slowdown proves temporary. ◆ The impact of the required hotel changes on the economics of the business.
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Higher rates and higher oil weighed on stocks, with energy the exception.
↘️ MARKET UPDATE AT CLOSE S&P 500: -0.45% 🔴 Nasdaq 100: -0.65% 🔴 Dow Jones: -0.63% 🔴 VIX: 17.4 | +0.25 pts (+1.46%) 🔴⬆️ Leaders: Energy +2.17%, Materials +0.48% Laggards: Discretionary -1.75%, Utilities -1.20%
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$TCOM Trip. com earnings tonight. The stock has been crushed, yet it still screens as an unusually strong business. Stock: down 45.7% YTD | down 13.1% over 1 month | down 11.0% at last earnings The chart is what makes this interesting. Trip. com still stands out on both business quality and valuation, but that only matters if the recent growth slowdown proves temporary. WHAT HAPPENED AT LAST EARNINGS ◆ Q1 revenue grew 17% and international platform bookings rose 65%, but Q2 revenue growth was guided down to just 3–8% as macro headwinds and compliance adjustments weighed on the outlook. WHAT HAPPENED LATELY ◆ July’s antitrust ruling requires changes to hotel exclusivity and pricing practices, creating a separate test for the economics of the platform. WHAT MATTERS THIS EARNINGS ◆ Whether the sharp Q2 growth slowdown proves temporary. ◆ The impact of the required hotel changes on the economics of the business.
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Cybersecurity is the winner from calls to slow AI
NOTABLE MOVERS TODAY Top risers 1. 🚀 ZS +16.52% 2. 🚀 QLYS +15.06% 3. 🔥 S +14.48% Top fallers 1. 💥 SIMO -16.76% 2. ⛈️ GLW -13.70% 3. ⛈️ TER -13.30%
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$LULU has become my fallen angel. It is now in an ~80% drawdown from its peak, but Michael Burry is buying. The uncomfortable part is that the business is weakening too. So is this another fixable product cycle, or has Lululemon lost something more fundamental? 🧵 1/6
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So why is Michael Burry buying? LULU has recovered from serious product and management setbacks before. The balance sheet gives it time. And the valuation now requires far less success than it once did. Burry isn't ignoring the deterioration. After Q2, he said things had “changed for the worse” and cut his valuation sharply. The multiple has collapsed. The question is whether earnings are close to finding a floor too. 5/6
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This is what keeps $LULU interesting. Even after the deterioration, it still stands out across the market for the combination of business quality and valuation. A new CEO brings deep product and brand experience from Nike. But Nike's own recent struggles mean that appointment is an opportunity, not proof. LULU doesn't need to become the old LULU again for the stock to work. It does need to prove the decline can stop. Can it achieve that? 6/6
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