Me on Bloomberg arguing that with closed borders and near-zero population growth, the labor break-even rate has dropped to roughly 25,000–35,000 jobs per month, making a headline print around 55,000 quite solid. I highlight that political pressure has fractured the Federal Reserve's consensus into individual voter reaction functions, leaving upcoming interest rate decisions deeply uncertain and on the verge of an unprecedented 6–6 split. Ultimately, I view the dismantling of forward guidance as a healthy shift that will eliminate market moral hazard and force leveraged traders to return to disciplined risk management, despite the messy transition. youtu.be/XaaspjQ4pzU