Investing, mostly. The longer version is at https://nitter.cf/t.co/aVFT25nefY
Boston, MA
Joined January 2014
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Brian Coughlin retweeted
$QXO is trading below book value, which seems pretty ridiculous to me looking a few years out.
Higher rates could give Jacobs better acquisition prices. Lower rates would help demand. I like it here either way.
I’m long.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
There is this fetish in the west about a dystopian China social credit score that decides what you can and cannot do, which actually doesnt exist.
But if they make it, I hope they manage it it better than the OG of dystopian social credit scores FICO.
$FICO CEO just lost the plot on Q4 earnings call!
“Ashish, I guess I can't blame you for asking the question, but maybe it's time for me just to explain a little bit of a change in philosophy and in how we talk about our pricing and our programs and so on. I know, I think you all know, it's no secret that transparency and detail on our programs and pricing have not been particularly helpful for FICO. We were of a view for many years that because the FICO score at $10 or $4.95 or whatever we were charging, was such a tiny fraction of overall closing costs, we really didn't think that the price was a very big deal. We thought that the value so far exceeded the price that why not share details around the pricing just so that everyone understands how little it is in the scheme of things? As you all know from watching events over the last several years, we've really been attacked for, you know, what we consider to be, you know, not very good reasons. We're attacked because we're transparent and clear about our score price. As you all know, the credit files cost a lot more, credit evaluation costs are much more.
In fact, every other element of the closing is a lot more than what FICO charges. Yet somehow FICO has become the poster child for affordability in housing, which is just a crazy thing. Internally, we have had a lot of conversations about has this transparency been helpful, and the conclusion is no, it has not been helpful. I think you guys know that we have probably been in the top decile of open transparent, help everyone outside understand what we are doing inside, but it has not really worked very well for us. On a go-forward basis, our intention is to not share every detail. We are not going to share every pricing program. We are not going to share what the prices are. We are not going to share all of the terms. They are going to be customized, but by customer to meet customer needs. We are just not going to provide all that kind of information. To your very specific question, is the average price of a FICO Score going up, down, or sideways? We are not going to answer that. You guys who have been watching us and watching the industry can understand exactly why we are not going to answer that.”
Yikes 😬
Brian Coughlin retweeted
A contrarian who went on the record being positive on Chinese equities versus US equities. Interesting term: "over-indexed".
Brian Coughlin retweeted
I'm continuing to be a real believer in Zuckerberg. Will be a megatrend like no one is really imagining right now. I'm sure lots of ramps and drops along the way though.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
$CPNG says Rocket Wow membership has accelerated q/q in Taiwan:
"Our WOW membership program in Taiwan has grown more than 100% year-over-year and 14% quarter-over-quarter, an acceleration over the growth we saw in Q2"
They also note the response from customers is "accelerating" and their owned last-mile network now delivers the vast majority of orders next day.
Their total developing offerings (which includes Eats and Rocket Now) revenue growth increased 300bps sequentially to +27% in constant currency.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Still looking for ~50% YoY cloud growth from $BABA for the September quarter.
Most of the sell side are modeling even higher.
Would love to see margins keep moving up too. If we get both, I think people start looking at this business a little differently.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Alibaba Cloud: The Profit Quality Behind a 45% Revenue Growth Rate and a Realistic Measurement of AI Capex Returns $BABA
Brian Coughlin retweeted
🇨🇳Apple to integrate Alibaba's Qianwen into Apple Intelligence; developer beta opens Nov 4
Apple and Alibaba will integrate Alibaba’s Qianwen into Apple Intelligence for Chinese users. Qianwen’s text- and image-understanding and content-generation capabilities will be accessible via Siri, Apple’s writing tools and visual intelligence. The features enter the iOS developer beta on Nov 4 and are scheduled to ship to Chinese users with iOS 27.3 in December.
#CHINA #AI #ALIBABA $BABA #APPLE $AAPL
(mktnews.com/flashDetail.html…)
Brian Coughlin retweeted
The top comments on this post are super depressing. Not only are there a ton of folks defending this method of "teaching math," they literally say that this is how they were taught.
If you look up this TouchMath method, it's pretty much only in the US. Guess why? Because it's a copyrighted method. A teacher came up with it, commercialized it, and aggressively markets this to thousands of districts.
Guess what other countries use? Oh, they also use physical manipulatives, but it's things like abacuses and base 10 blocks, not ridiculous dot counting.
I’m now convinced our kids are being intentionally setup to fail by our education system
American parent has her child show the new way they are being taught to do math
This is the most insane thing you’ll ever see. You just need to see this for yourself…. Apparently this is called TouchMath and instead of doing math, you just count dots on letters
No Math is being done here
Brian Coughlin retweeted
$EWZ -26% Brazil election upset rattles markets as Lula clings to power @seekingalpha
Brian Coughlin retweeted
No horse in the race, but baba has the balance sheet, geopolitical support and technical know-how to both develop their own chips and build their own datacenter in western aligned jurisdictions. There is a reason they are allowed to fab at TSMC when most other players can’t.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Just running some $SE math. Open invitation to poke holes in it.
Fully Diluted Mkt Cap: $52b
Net Cash (after leases): $5b
Ecommerce: $142b in GMV. Assume 30% isn't real economic activity because of refunds/ brushing.
At a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin, which I think is conservative, that is $1.5b.
Sea Monee LTM EBIT $1B
Garena $1.5b EBIT
Add in about -$750m of other service losses and unallocated expenses. Then taxed at 32%.
Comes out to 21x earnings.
Last quarter total revenue's grew +48% y/y.
Keep in mind if we assume the higher EBIT/ GMV margin, then growth in that segment would be less, but a 1.5% EBIT/GMV margin is generally not a "fully monetized" ecomm margin, so there is still room for growth investment in that figure.
Also Garena can be a bit volatile and there is still an open question on long term credit risk for Sea Monee.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
Bought quite a bit of $SE today. I was waiting for this.
Brian Coughlin retweeted
🚨HOLY. Business Insider obtained internal Amazon emails projecting $5 BILLION in Nvidia GB300 racks deliveries in August, then roughly $3 BILLION EVERY MONTH.
Some AWS data centers have room for the racks but NOT enough power to turn them on. Equipment is being staged in warehouses, while Amazon takes ownership earlier, tying up cash before deployment.
At an internal September staff meeting, AWS CFO John Felton joked to infrastructure chief Prasad Kalyanaraman: "You've taken us free cash flow negative as a company, so congratulations."
AWS's infrastructure chief expects Amazon's free cash flow to remain negative for 'the next couple of years or so.'
RT @Sino_Market: 🇨🇳#China Economic activity data:
3Q GDP 4.6% y/y, [Est.4.4%]
1️⃣Sept retail sales 1.1% y/y [Est.0.6%]
2️⃣Sept industrial o…
