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30 years as global prop & HF PM, current finance professor. Stay Vigilant Substack, CME's Excell with Options, Investment Exchange Forum podcast, daily LI chart

Illinois, USA
Joined October 2013
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🚨BREAKING: Cardinal Robert Sarah is facing HEAVY BACKLASH after saying: “Wake up. Islam is a danger. If Christians don’t start caring about our faith, Islam will take over the West. They’ll impose their laws and culture... We will decline.” Do you stand with him?
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A lot to learn from the markets this week Stay Vigilant stayvigilant.substack.com/p/…
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🚨 JUST IN: Polish MEP Dominik Tarczyński STARES into the camera to drop this message for any American considering voting Democrat in 2026 "Socialism is DEATH, slavery and lack of any freedoms. PLEASE don't do it — don't go through 70 years of occupation like Poland did." "You know what socialism is? Everyone is equal...Equally HUNGRY. And that's what we went through. Please, don't do it. Do not vote socialist for your next generations for your children and grandchildren!" @D_Tarczynski 💯💯 Poles LIVED THIS: ration cards, empty shelves, lack of food and martial law by the commies Now Democrats are running open socialists like Mamdani and ABDUL EL SAYED Listen to the people who actually survived it! 🇺🇸🇵🇱 Everyone who fled communism does NOT want to go back. Americans must vote Republican.
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Illinois is 24-10 over the last three seasons, the fourth-best record in the Big Ten since the conference expanded behind only Indiana, Ohio State, and Oregon.
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I've been at this for several years now, and perhaps I'm naive to listen to mgmt, but this just isn't true both in the macro data (strong consumer spending in the GDP report) and the micro. This is from this earnings season: $V: Growth across consumer spend bands remained relatively consistent with prior quarters, with the highest spend band continuing to grow the fastest. We did not see signs of the lower-spend consumer weakening in our volumes. $AXP: Customer behavior looks very similar to what we've seen over the past year. Strong and consistent spend growth, especially in the T&E categories, balanced growth in line with spend, high retention rates, and excellent credit performance. $MA: The underlying business is very strong. Consumers and businesses are spending. The overall environment remains very supportive. $COF: The domestic card charge-off rate for the third quarter was 3.98%, down 73 basis points from the prior quarter and down 65 basis points year-over-year. Our charge-offs are benefiting from the steady improvement in delinquencies that we observed in the first half of this year $BFH: On the macroeconomic front, consumer behaviors remained resilient, though spending was increasingly intentional. Higher credit quality cardholders remain a consistent source of strength, while consumers with lower credit risk scores showed greater selectivity in their purchasing patterns.
Adam Josephson at Sakonnet Research says the "resilient consumer" is a myth, and that more and more consumer staples companies are seeing revenue growth that's lower than inflation
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With the little opportunity that I have in this social media space, I promise to speak up for thr voiceless Christians in Ethiopia are been killed by Islamic terrorist And all over the world, Christians are been targeted
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BREASTMILK She thought she was studying milk. What she uncovered was a conversation. In 2008, evolutionary anthropologist Katie Hinde was working in a primate research lab in California, analyzing breast milk from rhesus macaque mothers. She had hundreds of samples and thousands of data points. Everything looked ordinary—until one pattern refused to go away. Mothers raising sons produced milk richer in fat and protein. Mothers raising daughters produced a larger volume with different nutrient balances. It was consistent. Repeatable. And deeply uncomfortable for the scientific consensus. Colleagues suggested error. Noise. Statistical coincidence. But Katie trusted the data. And the data pointed to a radical idea. Milk is not just nutrition. It is information. For decades, biology treated breast milk as simple fuel. Calories in. Growth out. But if milk were only calories, why would it change depending on the sex of the baby? Katie kept digging. Across more than 250 mothers and over 700 sampling events, the story grew more complex. Younger, first-time mothers produced milk with fewer calories but significantly higher levels of cortisol—the stress hormone. The babies who drank it grew faster. They were also more alert, more cautious, more anxious. Milk wasn’t just building bodies. It was shaping behavior. Then came the discovery that changed everything. When a baby nurses, microscopic amounts of saliva flow back into the breast. That saliva carries biological signals about the infant’s immune system. If the baby is getting sick, the mother’s body detects it. Within hours, the milk changes. White blood cells surge. Macrophages multiply. Targeted antibodies appear. When the baby recovers, the milk returns to baseline. This was not coincidence. It was call and response. A biological dialogue refined over millions of years. Invisible—until someone thought to listen. As Katie reviewed existing research, she noticed something unsettling. There were twice as many scientific studies on erectile dysfunction as on breast milk composition. The first food every human consumes. The substance that shaped our species. Largely ignored. So she did something bold. She launched a blog with a deliberately provocative name: Mammals Suck Milk. It exploded. Over a million readers in its first year. Parents. Doctors. Scientists. People asking questions research had skipped. The discoveries kept coming. Milk changes by time of day. Foremilk differs from hindmilk. Human milk contains over 200 oligosaccharides babies can’t digest—because they exist to feed beneficial gut bacteria. Every mother’s milk is biologically unique. In 2017, Katie brought this work to a TED stage. In 2020, it reached a global audience through Netflix’s Babies. Today, at Arizona State University’s Comparative Lactation Lab, she continues reshaping how medicine understands infant development, neonatal care, formula design, and public health. The implications are staggering. Milk has been evolving for more than 200 million years—longer than dinosaurs walked the Earth. What we once dismissed as simple nourishment is one of the most sophisticated communication systems biology has ever produced. Katie Hinde didn’t just study milk. She revealed that nourishment is intelligence. A living, responsive system shaping who we become before we ever speak. All because one scientist refused to accept that half the story was “measurement error.” Sometimes the biggest revolutions begin by listening to what everyone else ignores.
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BREAKING: Horrifying new footage has been released of the Ethiopian Christian community burying dozens of innocent people who were slaughtered by Islamists. Where is the outrage?
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Well, another Cardinal has come out with a, shall we say, puzzling take on evangelization. A few years ago, Cardinal Américo Aguiar, at the time auxiliary bishop of Lisbon, said that he and the other organizers of World Youth Day in his hometown had no interest in converting anyone to Christ. Now Cardinal Jean-Paul Vesco of Algeria has opined that “the Church is not there to convert” and “Christians should approach other religions through fraternity rather than seeking conversions.” Excuse me, but…what? Last time I checked, the Founder said, “All authority in heaven and on earth has been given to me. Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, and teaching them to obey everything I have commanded you.” Sure sounds like conversion to me. When St. Paul came to Corinth or Athens or Thessalonica, his purpose was not to listen or to form a discussion group but rather to declare an unnerving message: the euangelion (glad tidings) that Jesus Christ is risen from the dead. So impassioned is he for this work that he says, “I have become all things to all people, that I might by all means save some. I do it all for the sake of the gospel” (1 Cor. 9:22); and “If I proclaim the gospel, this gives me no ground for boasting, for an obligation is laid on me, and woe to me if I do not proclaim the gospel” (1 Cor. 9:16)! Moreover, the entire thrust of the Second Vatican Council was toward bringing the Light of Christ to the peoples of the world (Lumen Gentium). And this missionary élan has given rise in the last few decades to the idea of a “new evangelization,” which is to say, a fresh declaration of the Lordship of Christ. Quite obviously, no one thinks that this work of evangelization should be done in a brow-beating, overbearing, or disrespectful manner (proselytization), but for God’s sake, let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater. If I really thought that the Church does not exist to bring people to Christ, then I would resign and get an honest job.
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I am a proud and loyal Democrat. I served in President Clinton’s National Security Council and worked for Madeleine Albright at the State Department. I ran for Congress as a Democrat, have voted Democratic all my life, and expect to continue doing so. But I would never vote for Abdul El-Sayed. In my judgment, he does not represent the values of our party or our nation. I urge my fellow patriotic Democrats in Michigan to leave the Senate line blank or vote for Republican Mike Rogers. This is an exceptional case, and I do not make this recommendation lightly. We can support Democratic majorities nationally while refusing to support a candidate who violates our core values. Loyalty to our party should strengthen our principles, never require us to abandon them.
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Top earners make less than half of all income and pay over 83% of all income taxes. When the Left says the rich need to pay their “fair share,” ask them what number would finally be enough. They never have an answer.
“What is your ‘fair share’ of what someone else has worked for?” - Thomas Sowell
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Families are already dealing with high prices. The last thing they need is more government spending, which is exactly what socialist-backed candidates want. I believe that history shows where that road leads: higher taxes, less opportunity, and economic decline. Real reform comes from free markets, limited government, and individual liberty.
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What Socialism Is. Socialism is not a real model to be applied in the world – it is a contradictory rhetoric used to gain power over people, by manipulating those who are easiest to manipulate. It is anti-life, because it contradicts reality. Its contradictions stay harmless only as long as it stays on paper. Try to implement it, and they come due. It postulates equality – and produces the most unequal societies of all: the nomenklatura in its special shops, everyone else in the queue. It says it frees the workers – and in 1980, ten million Polish workers had to rise up against the workers' state. It postulates abundance – and gets rid of the people who produce it. Venezuela, sitting on the largest oil reserves in the world, watched its people lose an average of eleven kilos in a single year. It says the state will wither away – and builds the biggest state in history. It postulates peace – and needs an enemy for every failure. "From each according to his ability, to each according to his needs." Needs, of course, especially of the immoral, are unlimited. Ability is punished. Someone has to resolve these contradictions. In socialism, that someone is the police, by force. When the theory says one thing and reality another, it is never the theory that gets arrested. That is why it is anti-life. Life works by getting reality right: every living thing survives because it reads the world correctly. Socialism switches off the instruments – prices that say what is scarce, profits and losses that say what works, free speech that says what is wrong. A society that can no longer see where it is going ends up where socialist societies always end up: first the queue, then the famine and the camp. And yet it keeps coming back. Why? Because socialism is not an economic theory that failed. It is a technique of power that works. The economics always fails. The rhetoric never does – on those easiest to manipulate, and for those who rise by manipulating them. Socialism has never delivered what it says. It has always delivered what it is for: power.
In 1987, Lula explained how to implant socialism in Brazil: "It will be an arduous job of 30 to 50 years, even with a revolution, because we must prepare the consciousness of the Brazilian people." That is Gramsci almost word for word: first the consciousness, then the power.
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In this picture we have: 5 star #3 CB recruit in the nation 4 star #5 S recruit in the nation 4 star #9 LB recruit in the nation 4 star #8 CB recruit in the nation …and a kid from Gibson City.
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Friends, in just two days, Christians were murdered on two continents. On Friday, gunmen opened fire on a funeral at St. George’s Greek Orthodox Church in Karak, Jordan, and killed nine people. On Saturday, armed men attacked Orthodox churches and homes in Oromia, Ethiopia, and killed more than forty. These are not statistics. They are our brothers and sisters, members of the mystical Body of Christ. When Saul set out to destroy the Church, the risen Jesus asked him, “Why are you persecuting me?” The Lord is still being persecuted in these victims of anti-Christian violence. Christianity is by far the most persecuted religion in the world today. Those of us who worship in comfort have to ask what the deaths of these martyrs demand of us. At the very least, they demand that we pray for them, learn their names, press our leaders to act, and refuse to look away. The blood of the martyrs is the seed of the Church.
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What are ag markets telling us about the election next week? lnkd.in/p/gDEy4Ckm
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Is Brazil a foreshadowing of the US election? Should we be watching the market reaction more closely? lnkd.in/p/gUYAkjSs
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Milton Friedman: “Keep your eye on one thing and one thing only: how much government is spending, because that’s the true tax.” “If you’re not paying for it in the form of explicit taxes, you’re paying for it indirectly in the form of inflation or borrowing.”
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