Tyler O

NFL Week 7 Preview Here’s what I’m looking at on this slate - Bijan Robinson should see 30 touches this week as 2-4 Atlanta is a live underdog against undefeated, but injury-reduced San Francisco. - Given the branding art Falcons management approved for public consumption this week, I certainly question the organization’s decision making and internal auditing capabilities, but there is no way they went through film review against the Bears and didn’t come out saying “we need to ride Bijan more this week.” 30 touches is a pretty extreme number, but it would be pretty shocking to see Robinson see a light workload day again after last week. - The 49ers are still down Nick Bosa, but it’s the state of their wide receiver room that has me calling them injury reduced. No Mike Evans, no Deebo Samuel, with Ricky Pearsall and De’Zhaun Stribling on IR. Christian Kirk looks set to return with the 33-year-old version Brandin Cooks set to see a lot of action. - Christian McCaffrey is still a fluid cut stacker, but he looks like he’s lost a step, which makes sense for a 30-year-old running back with well over 2,000 NFL touches. This year he has topped out at 75 rushing yards and 53 receiving yards in a game (those came on different games, to be clear). - Brock Purdy is playing at an MVP level, George Kittle is still a dude and if anyone can get the most out of a skill group it’s Kyle Shanahan, but Purdy’s pass catcher group is thin this week and CMC has not looked like the player that can carry an offense on his back on any given Sunday. - Former Falcons head coach Raheem Morris, in my learned opinion, was not a very good head coaching hire by Atlanta. I was not shy about that during his tenure with the Falcons. He is, however, a very good defensive coordinator that is not only doing an excellent job in San Francisco so far, but he’s very familiar with Michael Penix. I’d expect pressure, where I’d sincerely hope Kevin Stefanski and his staff tries to catch the Niners with some screens and proactive checkdowns to Bijan, in an effort to get him in space. - The 3-2 Lions are coming off their bye against a 4-2 Packers team that has played well during their three-game winning streak, but with Micah Parsons, Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper already on the shelf, the Packers are down linebacker Zaire Franklin as well. That’s not good when facing Detroit’s loaded offense, and especially not good when having to manage Jahmyr Gibbs without your best linebackers. - One of the things that makes Detroit so difficult to deal with is if a defense overcommits to Gibbs, who is a killer in space and can break a run at any given time, they can hurt you with Jameson Williams over the top, Sam LaPorta in one-on-one matchups, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is among the league’s most reliable receivers, and he’s due for a bit of a blowup. - Detroit has a good pass rush that will have a trench advantage in this matchup, but their secondary has been atrocious. Safety Brian Branch looks like he’ll return this week, which is an obvious plus. Given Green Bay’s speedsters in Christian Watson and Matthew Golden (who has an injury uncertainty) Detroit just about has to play two high or cover 4 at a high rate, with light boxes, basically inviting Green Bay to run and win via a death by a thousand cuts type of offensive approach. - Josh Jacobs returns, and a quick passing game could help Jordan Love and Green Bay’s patch work offensive line (which has played well considering) mitigate Detroit’s front. - Love historically plays efficiently against Detroit, but he’s never thrown for more than 273 yards against the Lions, and he’s only gone for more than 250 twice in his career against Detroit. - The line in Ravens vs. Bengals has moved back and forth throughout the week, as Lamar Jackson’s status for this contest is still up in the air. - If Jackson plays, his Ravens vs. Joe Burrow’s Bengals is one of, if not the best intra-division quarterback matchup in the entire league. - If he doesn’t, outgunning Burrow is a super tall order for Tyler Huntley. - Over the past two years Ja’Marr Chase has gone for over 100 yards in each of his last four matchups against Baltimore, with at least 10 receptions in three of those four contests - The Bengals have a one-dimensional offense, as Chase Brown is a very average player, so Cincinnati should be in the market for a cost-effective upgrade at running back. - The Titans have a trench advantage against Cleveland and Deshaun Watson habitually takes some bad sacks virtually every week, putting Tennessee in a good position to upset the Browns behind a strong defensive effort against a volatile offense. - My one concern there is Brian Daboll may be the league’s worst active offensive play caller, as we’ve seen Cam Ward not only struggle, but regress. While the Browns’ defense has been notably better at home over the years, they are still a good group against a struggling offense in Tennessee. - This is a big test for the Giants improved, but still average offensive line against the Texans top shelf front four. Expect New York to try and deploy a muddy gameplan with J.J. McCarthy taking over, where they try to veer ugly and conservative to keep this close for as long as they can. - If the Giants come out aggressive on offense, I could see things going badly in a hurry. - After Cam Skattebo did not see a carry last week, I would be surprised if that happened again in Houston, especially since New York will no doubt use their running game to try and slow down the Texan’s high-end edge duo. It would also make sense, given who coaches this team, if Devin Singletary saw more work than Tyrone Tracy given the quality of Houston’s pass rush. Singletary isn’t a very interesting skill player, but John Harbaugh and his staff no doubt trusts him more than Tracy in pass protection and similar areas. - Abdul Carter is game planned for every week where he sees a lot of doubles and help, but if the Giants are going to have any kind of shot here, he needs to make a few plays to get the Giants off the field. Similarly, Kayvon Thibodeaux is the kind of former first round edge you do not pay big money to, because he feasts on bad offensive tackles, which he isn’t even doing this year as he’s still in search for his first sack. However, I’m mentioning this because Houston is the sort of offensive line Thibodeaux tends to have a spike game against, historically. - The Jets have a better roster than Miami, where I’d argue New York is better at every position group but linebacker, and even that is close. That said, coming off their bye, this might be the Dolphins best shot to win a game all year, with the caveat that I do genuinely think they could go winless. - Geno Smith is a very pressure sensitive quarterback, so if he had a spike game against Miami’s bottom tier pass rush, it would not surprise me. - If the Dolphins win this game, I’d expect that Jeff Hafley and his staff will create some strategic margin coming off their bye, particularly by pressuring Smith. - Carolina has been proactively pass centric and Bryce Young has played quite well this season, putting Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker in good position against throw on us to beat us Tampa. That said, two weeks ago on Thursday Night Football I thought Buccaneers perimeter corners did an excellent job on CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, who I’d call “bigs” for this purpose as they are similar to Carolina’s wide receiver duo in that sense. - Baker Mayfield returns, while seemingly playing with a wrapped throwing hand given his thumb injury. His top receiver, Emeka Egbuka is ruled out. That’s the one downside in Mayfield’s matchup as his offensive line should mitigate Carolina’s push while the Panthers are down their best edge and both of their perimeter corners. Tampa is also in a desperation spot at 1-5, where a loss just about buries them, but a win keeps them much closer to alive in football’s second messiest division. - The Vikings are coming off their bye and the idea of Brian Flores against Daniel Jones is almost hilarious to me (Jones is one of the few players in the league that I’d call myself a hater of). That said, the Colts firing their general manager strikes me as more of a warning shot to the rest of the roster than a white flag. - The Colts could realistically string together a good defensive effort and they have a good enough offensive line to at least somewhat mitigate Flores’ pressure packages, but ultimately Jones is the liability in this matchup. - I thought the Colts could be scrappy this season behind a high-end run game and a good defense, but this game in Minnesota could end up being a last stand of sorts for Indianapolis this season. - Arizona is coming off a banner win and therefore a classic letdown spot for a volatile team like they are while the Broncos are coming off a long week with trench advantages on both sides of the ball. Denver will be without stud safety Talanoa Hufanga, with star corner back Patrick Surtain currently listed as questionable. - This seems like a good matchup to try to get Bo Nix and Jaylen Waddle going with some early manufactured touches. A throw early to run light type of approach would make sense both for this specific game, and for Sean Payton’s need to get more out of Nix over the long haul. - The Steelers have a trench advantage against New Orlean’s injury reduced offensive line, while Pittsburgh is coming off a near full overtime period last week. That overtime component mixed with this game being in Paris is why I can’t quite say that I’d be surprised if the Steelers lost, as those are two unwanted variables that gum up the works, so to speak. - Germie Bernard has served as an underneath, pretty high-volume option for Aaron Rodgers in each of the last two games. Think of him as Rodgers’ Cole Beasley currently. - This is a must win game for the spiraling, injury ravaged Rams whose pass catcher group will be a genuine nightmare if Puka Nacua is sidelined. Even if Puka played, expect a great deal of 12 and 13 personnel (tight end heavy) out of the Rams. - Given those constraints, it would be no real surprise if this was an abnormally running back centric game plan from Sean McVay. - The Rams defensive front is down multiple starters, so if Ashton Jeanty is going to see any rushing lanes this season, this looks like a good opportunity against the Rams. - It was genuinely hard to watch Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee last week, as he is very limited in pressure management. If the Cowboys can’t limit this Eagles’ offense, who are down two of their three best opening day linemen, with virtually every one of their starting skill position players on the injury report, heads need to roll in Dallas given the stakes of this game. - Despite Philadelphia’s offensive struggles, Vic Fangio’s defense has kept the Eagles in each of the last three games, even though they were losses. - I have never been a big Dak Prescott guy, he’s the definition of a hall of good quarterback that you’re going to need to give an all-star team to have any shot at being a contender. This Cowboys team is not an all-star team. - I’d pin a good chunk of the Cowboys losses to the Buccaneers and Packers on Prescott. If he plays like he did in those two outings, Dallas could lose on Monday night. - Seahawks vs. Chiefs is a really interesting game as you get to see Mike Macdonald’s aggressive pressure packages not only against Patrick Mahomes, who is among the very best at managing difficult pressure, but against former Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker. That’s a true marquee bout. - Speaking of pressure, pressure rate and things of that nature are extremely incomplete stats. The next time you watch a football game, pay attention to the wide range there is for the pressure a team generates. Against a guy like Mahomes, he’ll often evade one rusher, he’ll even evade a stacked, second rusher more often than just about anyone, but the difference between those two types of pressure are enormous, as one creates moderate stress while the second, stacked version is the primary way defenses can derail games, and Seattle is one of the best at creating those situations where multiple players are creating impactful pressure. So, when someone gives me a stat like pressure rate, this is why I don’t care, as it’s a very incomplete accounting of events where I’m basically being given a shittier version of batting average. It’s not completely useless, but it’s hardly telling me the whole story. - I am very, very curious to see what Steve Spagnuolo does to try and limit Jaxon Smith-Njigba. In general I could see Spagnuolo’s defense stealing this game, but whether or not he does anything very creative to try and limit JSN in high leverage spots is of great interest to me. I have watched every NFL game for roughly a decade. I have done this for the purpose of sports speculation. I run a reality-based program here. Engagement is how I reach new users. So as long as engagement remains strong (comments/ shares) I’ll continue pumping this and similarly detailed insights out every week.