Probability nerd, building @SolioAnalytics @trout-post.com on bsky
Joined November 2019
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0/14 An Application of Stochastic Programming to FPL: robust planning under fixture uncertainty using Linear Optimisation with Recourse ⤵️
ALT https://www.hindawi.com/journals/mpe/2015/741329/
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Running the calculation this year again, we have a fairly low value for team value increases in the current state of play - only ~0.21pts per gameweek for every extra £1.0m of team value. Historically we have seen this number often nearer ~0.3
If we were to assume Bruno Fernandes is never viable and Saka remains injured for the rest of the season (extreme assumptions, for illustrative purposes only), then this value does drop a little, but only to ~0.19
The point at which team value is meaningless tops out a little lower there though at 114.0m, instead of 119.6m
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Technically if you want to increase your chances of getting luckier, then you want to widen your distribution of outcomes, such that the odds of getting really lucky increases. You can do that by sacrificing some projected points for a more differential team. Thus, you are more likely to get really lucky!
(See how the yellow distribution in the image has a fatter right tail, depsite a lower mean score)
The downside is that you have also increased your chances of getting unluckier.
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Do you have an #FPL question for GW9 or beyond?
@FPL_Spaceman will be answering questions here on Twitter for two hours later today. Just reply to this post with your question and let Jonny help you out!
Once Jonny has finished answering, we’ll randomly draw three winners, each receiving one free month of Solio Pro.
This Q&A replaces this week's pod, which we've had to cancel due to scheduling conflicts.
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
On a simple 6GW sample, removing a player's best xG score decreases accuracy rather than improving it.
There is some case to be made for down-weighting outliers, but throwing them out entirely is also throwing out useful signal, so be careful
When I'm not doing FPL I'm fortunate to work on some extremely fun things! (@attio)
Excited to show off all the really cool stuff we've been building 😁 (with an equally cool launch site)
attio.com/architecture
A new type of user requires a new type of architecture.
Legacy software wasn't built for agents and now they're breaking it. Today, we're launching the next generation of our platform powered by a hybrid architecture. Building this has been the most ambitious and challenging engineering challenge of my career.
Attio now supports SQL - offering a PostgreSQL compatible connector and syntax that allows our customers and their agents to query all of their data like a database. It's transactionally consistent, horizontally scalable and allows agents to access the full context they require using a language and syntax that they're well trained on using.
Whether you're accessing your data through our UI, our API, our MCP server or now our SQL Data Connectors: your team and your agents get the full context, every time.
Learn more at attio.ai/architecture
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Wildcard active?
With the help of @SolioAnalytics we answer six of the biggest FPL questions ahead of GW6, including:
✅ DEFCON trends
✅ Set-piece importance
✅ Fixture swings
✅ Defensive rotations
✅ Too late to buy Pascal Gross?
✅ Budget forwards
theanalyst.com/articles/defc…
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Every FPL manager has agonised over a benching decision, and then end up starting the blank and benching the haul.
So does rotation actually work?
We checked @SolioAnalytics's deadline-locked projections for every 2025-26 gameweek against what actually happened 🧵
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
We spent the international break improving Solio's solver engine 🔧
Solves are now much faster, and they search deeper than ever. Plan several #FPL gameweeks ahead in seconds
Throw your hardest plans at it & let us know if you can see the difference! 👇
fpl.solioanalytics.com
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Cheeky mid-gw overall rank of 987 😎
Easy when you follow the top Solio line 💅
fpl.solioanalytics.com
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
🎥 Bonus Episode: #FPL GW4 - Wildcard Drafting
@FPL_Spaceman is joined by @BakerFPL343 to talk through how to draft a wildcard, model your own beliefs, and plan with uncertainty using stochastic optimisation.
youtu.be/JeJxsjN9gOY
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Which teams have been locked and banned most often by #FPL managers using the Solio rule builder to generate WC, FH and transfer plans? 👇
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Another Solio quick tip if you are on FH or WC: Clicking "Alternative" button (after the first solve) tries to find structurally different teams in each iteration. It looks for defense and offense stacks, money spent in positions, premium count, template coverage, and more!
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
#GW3 Predicted Lineups for @SolioAnalytics
All 20 teams 🧵
Arsenal (v CHE)
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
There isn't one obvious way to play your #FPL Wildcard in GW3.
Using @SolioAnalytics, we built three very different squads:
🔵 The "Big Three"
🛡️ Big at the back
📊 Arsenal DEF + DEFCON midfield
But which team predicted to score the most points? 👇
theanalyst.com/articles/fpl-…
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
🚨LIVE STREAM KLAXON🚨
Going live at 8:45pm with the only FH draft you need this week! Plus some WC and general GW3 Team Selection stuff.
We've also reeled in the help of @FF_Trout - because we need it.
youtube.com/live/20bQt_XUVz0…
Fantasy Football Trout retweeted
Our #FPL tool is back online and ready for anyone who wants to start planning for GW2 and beyond.