We are 4D beings relative to our past selves (temporal).
A 4D recording device can function as an extended perception tool (just like our eyes), extracting the temporal dimension and rendering it into a visual that we can manipulate.
Space and time reconstructed in 4D
Is this how higher dimensional beings see us - every moment at once?
Starting to understand what Vonnegut meant by humans being “great millipedes” - clearly it applies to our four legged friends too!
Geolocated 2d video → per frame 3d gaussians → each left precisely where & when it happened
FLJack retweeted
2023: Will Smith eating spaghetti
2026: Wheel Smith eating spaghetti
The AI progress is crazy.
When the bull market tires out, I talk myself into buying the dip for the next big run.
But when the bear market bottoms out, that same drop just makes me panic about how much lower it can go.
FLJack retweeted
我们之前说过，牛市 80% 的时间都是痛苦的
这不新的痛苦又来了
最近我看到一些博主说，10 年期美债突破 5%
一场大熊市就要来了
真是犹如惊弓之鸟
一个坏消息，在周期的不同位置，会产生相反的结果
我们看 2023 年的情况
10 月份，比特币 25000 到 30000 之间震荡
整个市场在炒作收益率倒挂、宏观经济危机、流动性紧缩
那个时候，10 年期美债有两次突破 5%
2023-10-19：第一次刺破 5%， 2007 年后首次摸到 5% 整数关口
2023-10-23：再度突破 5%，全球媒体大规模报道
我们都知道，长债收益率越高， 大家就会把钱从币圈抽走买长债
结果比特币毫不客气，直接拉到35000，一堆人踏空
为什么无风险资产收益率越来越高，币圈反而开启牛市？
对于流动性问题，我们之前有个分水理论
水位 = 总水位 × 分配份额
分配份额 = 筹码结构吸引力 × 叙事燃料存量 × 竞品相对得分
2023 年 10 月份，比特币才 25000，处于底部区间，筹码结构健康，而且那个时候还有 ETF 叙事预期，即使回到 历史高点 69000，也有 2-3 倍的空间
所谓的竞品就是 5% 美债收益，完全没有优势
所以，在一个筹码结构健康的牛市初期，流动性并不会被美债吸走
资金本身就是贪婪的，只看回报性价比
同样的美债收益，如果放在牛市高位，则结果完全不同
牛市高位回报空间小，风险大， 无风险资产哪怕涨一点，流动性都会被抽走，必然会开启一个大熊市
所以，当前比特币仅仅从 6 万涨到了 8 万，还处于牛市初期，对于新高，还有 50% 的收益空间
5% 的美债收益并不具备多大的吸引力
大家依然会选择把钱留在币圈，这就是同一个坏消息在不同的周期位置产生不同结果的原因
无风险资产收益率高并不意味着资金一定会流向无风险资产
这是一个重要的结论
之前我们也说过，牛市的中间过程都是复杂的，没有方向的，有好消息也有坏消息，如果追着消息面，很容易被骗走手里的筹码
只有牛市的顶部才有共振的信号，那个时候方向一致，没有人在问现在是不是牛市，大部分人都在期待 16 万的比特币，8000 的以太坊
因此我的想法是，把所有的时间都放在研究周期的顶部信号，这是你决定牛市回报最重要的事情
中间的过程不要太关注
FLJack retweeted
“Suara” gempa M5,9 yang terjadi sekitar Jakarta pada 12 Sep 2026 pukul 04.23 WIB, jika gerakan tanahnya diubah menjadi suara yang dapat didengar manusia. Data direkam oleh Raspberry Shake station RE0F3, channel EHZ (gerakan vertikal tanah), kemudian disonifikasi menggunakan EQ Sound.
dataview.raspberryshake.org/…
Anyone remember how it felt back in early 2023? The Fed still hiked rates in 2023, "dump before the halving" narratives, ETF rumors, etc. Full of uncertainty.
Yet, Bitcoin roughly went up almost 7 times after this weekly price action. Wild times ahead.
FLJack retweeted
This is my 3rd Bitcoin bear market. Here's what seems clear to me, that newer Bitcoiners may not feel....
1. This is what a BTC bear market bottom feels like
Normie friends have been asking me "is BTC going to be 60s forever?" and "what positive catalysts are on the horizon?"
One of the big lessons I've learned in BTC cycles is that the tops feel bullish... and the bottoms feel bearish.
The end of a bear market is primarily a function of running out of sellers. The bearish sentiment builds on itself and shakes out low conviction holders... until you exhaust potential sellers.
Or perhaps a more precise mental image... the bottom is in WHEN the pile of capital hoping for a lower entry price to buy BTC has become disproportionately large relative to remaining potential sellers.
A BTC bear market doesn't end because good news arrives. It ends because bearish momentum can't be sustained and naturally ebbs. Then, suddenly, people sitting in cash are caught offsides and must bid BTC higher as they try to get back in.
2. The 2022 cycle bottom felt similar
June 2022, it felt like shit watching BTC tumble below prior cycle high ($20k) for the first time ever. Price tumbled from $30k to $18k in a few days. People thought we were headed to $12k . In hindsight, that was peak bearish momentum.
Over the next ~5 months, BTC drifted lower, with FTX fallout setting a cycle low in November at $15.5k . BTC felt gloomy and quiet for 2 months... and then popped back to $23k in January 2023 all of a sudden.
In hindsight, that was the start of a 2.5 year bull market that took BTC to $126k, roughly ~8x from cycle low.
3. Metrics show 2026 repeating the psychology of 2022
This chart shows Short-Term Holder cost basis (pink line) and how it tracks with BTC market price (white line). The bottom half shows this as a ratio between the two numbers (STH MVRV). Credit to @_Checkmatey_ for this excellent chart.
In the 2022 bear market, you can see that the lowest STH MVRV ratio was June 2022. After this point, Short-Term Holder cost basis drifted lower along with BTC price for ~7 months, until January 2023 when BTC jumped convincingly above the pink line for the first time in 13 months... and a new bull market had begun.
In 2026, the MVRV ratio spiked lowest in Feb. Since then, STH cost basis and BTC price have drifted lower for ~6 months now.
4. What this could mean for BTC's near future
If the parallels between 2022 and 2026 continue, it would mean BTC price jumping convincingly above STH cost basis sometime in the next few months. (7 months post peak bearish momentum would mean September 2026; 13 months below STH cost basis trendline would mean November 2026.)
And in hindsight, that breakout moment could be the start of a 2.5 year bull market. (8x from $58k low would be $464k, but even a 4x would be $232k/BTC.)
If history repeats, this was the bottom. And in 4 years, you'll look back at $64k BTC the same way we now look back wistfully at $19k BTC.
I believe this is what most people predict based on Bitcoin's recent price action.
"Sell the pump, buy in October" kind of thing.
Impressive chart.
🧭I randomly stumbled over this post from October 7th 2026.
❗️ONE FREAKING DAY, ONLY ONE DAY AFTER the official price ATH at $126k (October 6th 2025) - yes, you are reading that again: ONE DAY - I stated that this indicator will show us THE $BTC macro regime change and it did!
🚨Today is your chance to take the deep dive into this metric. Lean back, take a sip of your favorite drink and get this metric into your brain! If you invest ten minutes of your time, you will know more than 98% in CT, bet?
EXPLANATION:
The Central Bank Liquidity Oscillator models global monetary liquidity as a normalized, composite time series, derived from balance sheet dynamics and financial system drains. It translates heterogeneous macroeconomic inputs into a bounded statistical signal, capturing the state and momentum of global liquidity conditions in reciprocity to Bitcoin.
1. Conceptual Foundation:
In macro-financial systems, liquidity can be approximated as the net availability of money and credit provided by central banks, adjusted for institutional absorption mechanisms.
2. Data Structure:
The model separates inputs into positive and negative liquidity vectors.
Expansion variables are:
- Federal Reserve total assets
- European Central Bank total assets
- Bank of Japan total assets
Drain variables are:
- Treasury General Account (TGA)
- Reverse Repo Facility (RRP)
This reflects a net liquidity balance, where some components inject capital while others remove it from circulation.
3. First Transformation (Delta Operator)
Rather than using absolute levels (which are non-stationary), the model applies a finite difference operator. This converts the system into a rate-of-change framework, emphasizing acceleration and deceleration rather than size.
4. Standardization: Z-Score Normalization ensures:
- comparability across heterogeneous series
- transformation into a dimensionless statistical space
- identification of deviations from equilibrium
5. Composite Liquidity Function
The standardized components are aggregated into a single function attached with this post.
6. Smoothing: Low-Pass Filtering
To reduce high-frequency noise, the model applies an exponential moving average. This introduces a temporal smoothing kernel, isolating structural trends from short-term volatility.
7. Nonlinear Bounding: Arctangent Transformation
To constrain extreme values, the oscillator compresses outliers and preserves relative order. This creates a bounded oscillator, suitable for cyclical interpretation.
8. Indicator Analysis
The oscillator revolves between the +86 and -80 thresholds, volatility-implied swings are normal. When analyzing the indicator, one ONLY focuses on the final swing after each halving.
Step 1: AFTER THE HALVING, GCBLO will rise above +86 (red level), marking the final top phase aka pure risk on liquidity-wise.
Step 2: When GCBLO goes BELOW the red level threshold after its post-halving run up, this marks the final cycle top for Bitcoin, at least in liquidity terms
Step 3: GCBLO quickly crashes below -80 (green level), this is the last warning and final exit opportunity before the bear market hits
Step 4: Liquidity-wise, when GCBLO crosses above the green -80 level, a new Bitcoin bull market has started every time. Sometimes, liquidity lags price in bull market entries (2019 entry)
9. Summary
The Central Bank Liquidity Oscillator formalizes global liquidity as:
- A weighted system of monetary variables
- Transformed into momentum space (Δ)
- Standardized via Z-scores
- Aggregated into a composite index
- Smoothed using EMA filtering
- Bounded through a nonlinear transformation
This results in a dimensionless, stationary, and cyclically interpretable signal, representing the evolving state of global liquidity conditions within a mathematically consistent framework that can be used to test the waters for liquidity behavior and therefore, for Bitcoin’s current situation.
🚨Today is July 24th 2026, and I herewith declare, considering this indicator perspective, that the bottom in $BTC is in - at least liquidity-wise. According to GCBLO, it's our time to RE-ENTRY - NFA!🚨
