Wake would be a Vegas dog on a neutral field to the following SEC teams this week:
Georgia
Texas
LSU
Alabama
(maybe) Tennessee - I think this is largely a toss up but that Tennessee would open as a slight favorite
Wake would be favored against the rest of the SEC.
The “nice” thing right now is if Wake loses to SMU/Tech/Duke, the rankings don’t matter at all. They do matter if Wake runs the table until the ACCCG and falls to Miami. But right now I’m not really worried about it at all. Just win or it doesn’t matter.
Miami drops 6 spots for losing by one possession on the road to #5 Notre Dame without their best player.
Wake Forest STILL can’t crack the Top 10 despite being 8-1 and destroying everyone they play (so Miami can’t have a win over a Top 10 team).
7-2 SMU unranked (so Wake Forest can’t get a ranked win this week).
7-2 Duke unranked (so Miami can’t get a ranked win this week).
I’ve said it before and will say it again: Outside of helping the SEC in every single conceivable way, the CFP committee’s primary goal is to destroy the ACC.
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My off the cuff projected spreads where I would have Wake Forest on a neutral field today for teams around us in the latest CFP:
-3.5 v BYU
-1.5 v TT
-6.5 v Kentucky
+3.5 v Indiana
-4.5 v Houston
-1.5 v Iowa
Favored against most, and sitting 8-1 overall.
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Do we still have to pretend that Wake’s win ON THE ROAD over a top 15 SP+ and top 20 Sagarin rated Louisville isn’t a great win for the resume because Louisville isn’t ranked? Or can we move past the pretending and back to reality?
This is a great question and would take time to parse. Absolutely top 3 regular season game in Wake history. Biggest two IMO ever overall are 2006 ACCCG and Orange Bowl.
Is it to far to say this weekends game is a top 3 biggest wake forest game in history? While the ACC champ games are all important, they never really gave us the opportunity to dream as big as we will be able to if we win this game. Gotta have it. Full trust in this team.
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SMU now favored over Wake. Basically just a toss up. Hopefully this is just money coming in rather than info on Gio. All signs point to Gio going Saturday from what we’ve seen though.
Someday Bud may realize why folks were worried about the demise of the conference but he’s too busy refreshing how many views FSU had while losing yet another conference game to a team he will
say nobody watches so they’re worthless.
It is wild that the coaches of Missouri and Wake are saying this.
This is the type of stuff Deboer and Day should say
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FanaticDeac retweeted
Wake Forest is 11th in both the AP Poll and Coaches poll. Demon Deacons knocking on the door for their first top-10 ranking in 4 years
Based on the post game win expectancy from the last 5 games, Wake’s projected record is 4.99-.01. The lone non 100% PGWE is 99.9% against State - a game Wake won 38-14
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The good news is you know the results of the model before they’re published. So like…if you’re into that kind of thing 👀
Replying to @NateSilver538
It's kind of stolen valor lol. There's skill in trading but part of the skill is in knowing what sources actually provide alpha.
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“Here are the [correct] reasons we lost. We are on the wrong side of all of these. We will change nothing”
One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up.
So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us."
Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026.
There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true.
But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone.
Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were:
1) End the war
2) Focus on cost of living/inflation
3) Put America First
4) Change our relationship to Israel
Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.)
In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you.
The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.
If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest.
But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there.
I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.
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FanaticDeac retweeted
Sen. Susan Collins has called Troy Jackson to concede, @ArletteSaenz reports.














