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Preparation starts before the session. This replay shows Sunday night's overnight price action into Monday morning, against the levels I shared in VS Pro on Sunday afternoon. The tests and balance levels were posted before the overnight session began. The chart uses derived SPX prices so the overnight move can be compared with those reference points. When I look at this, I want to understand what the market maker position implies about the buying and selling required as conditions change. Start with one option and its hedge. As price moves, the option's delta changes. Time passing and changes in implied volatility can change delta too. To maintain a delta-neutral position, the market maker adjusts the hedge. Now consider those adjustments across the position, at different strikes and expirations. That's the connection between positioning and flow. Understanding it gives you a basis for evaluating where hedging may oppose a move, where it may reinforce one, and how that influence can change during the session. It also puts limits on what a level tells you. Price can trade through a test. Other flows can overwhelm the hedging we're tracking. A replay alone cannot tell you how much of a move came from market maker hedging. I think about the framework as a weighted coin. We can estimate the direction and rough size of the required hedge under different conditions. The price outcome remains uncertain. I teach that process in Dealer Hedging Dynamics: start with one option's hedge, then build toward reading real positions and understanding the flows they imply. If you want to understand the mechanics behind these daily levels, start with the free Introduction and Delta modules. Judge the teaching before you buy the rest. Dealer Hedging Dynamics: volsignals.com/dealer-hedgin… Not financial advice. Educational analysis - not investment advice, and not a statement about any specific market participant's intent.

My framework is designed to help you spot and act on opportunities like this one no outcomes are ever assured (this is trading after all) but when you know how positions CREATE greeks when you know how greeks are HEDGED then you know something about FUTURE flows

if only there was a course to teach you how to better read and trade the SPX day after day🤔

as today's SPX position settles- flows converge on 7550

no bounce at 7500? trapdoor is a nasty signal.

In this video I talk about how to predict market ranges during events like these

we're close to the 500 seat cap for tonight. 7pm ET, live on Zoom with Matt: the last three midterms, the hedges going into tomorrow, and the longer-term outlook we usually keep for members. grab one of the last seats, free, and you get the recording too: events.zoom.us/ev/At8EiJ5jc6… not financial advice

most of the S&P500's "long gamma" comes from the upcoming day's position -and mostly from a single recurring trade almost all the rest comes from a single rolling program trade - these things go, and it's a different market

The midterms are Tuesday. Into the last three of them the market did the same thing: weak into the vote, then something nobody expected after it. Monday night, the night before the vote, Matt and I go through the data live- what SPX did in 2014, 2018 and 2022, what vol did around each one, and what this year's SPX positions say going into Tuesday. (thread)

OCTOBER AM SPX SETTLEMENT 7757.09 - unofficial

VS Pro is best for learning this with active daily, guided context from Matt and I I spent 15y as SPX market maker @ Belvedere Trading Matt (@VSTarheels5) was a volatility manager for decades at the large NY index desks and stay tuned for a guided course on exactly this

positions- NOT GEX BY STRIKE 7750 is a clean target in the bigger Oct OPEX position this week's level to test to the downside is 7700

Our daily levels seem to work well in overnight sessions these aren't "mirages" on the chart, or 30 lines across a 40 point range - 7835 upside test 7815 balance 7810 downside test Nothing is perfect. All about probability.