FocusEconomics

Consumer confidence rises in October Brazil: The seasonally adjusted consumer confidence index published by the Getulio Vargas Foundation (Fundação Getúlio Vargas) went up to 84.7 in October, following September's 84.2. The latest reading was below the threshold of 100 that separates optimistic from pessimistic sentiment, yet marked the first rise after five months of decline. In October, consumers grew more upbeat about the economy in the coming months (+88.0 vs +85.2 in September). On the contrary, consumers grew less upbeat about their current situations (+81.4 vs +84.0).

Economic activity loses momentum in August Dominican Republic: Economic activity rose 5.6% in annual terms in September, following 3.8% growth in the previous month. According to preliminary data, the improvement was driven by a rebound in mining after two months of scheduled mine maintenance, coupled with stronger growth in local manufacturing, construction and services. Less positively, agriculture declined at a sharper rate compared to August. On a month-on-month basis, economic activity rose 0.9% in September, following a 0.7% drop in the previous month.

Industrial production accelerates in August Lithuania: Industrial production increased 7.4% in annual terms in September, following a 4.6% rise in the prior month. Relative to the previous month's figures, readings in September improved for manufacturing (+8.0% in annual terms vs +5.2% in August), mining and quarrying (+11.8% vs +9.3% in August) and electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning (-5.6% vs -8.1% in August). On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, industrial production increased 1.8% in September, following a flat reading in the previous month.

Merchandise trade surplus increases in August Peru: In August, the trade balance was USD +4.7 billion, following a USD +3.3 billion figure in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +47.7 billion. Merchandise exports increased 36.9% in year-on-year terms in August, following a 34.5% increase in the prior month. Merchandise imports were up 18.8% in annual terms in August, following a 33.4% increase in the prior month.

Inflation picks up in August from the prior month Australia: Consumer prices were up 4.4% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 4.0% rise in the prior month. The reading was above market expectations and the Central Bank’s target of 2.0–3.0%. Relative to the previous month's figures, price pressures were higher for transportation in September (+8.7% in annual terms vs +5.6% in August). In contrast, there were milder price pressures for clothing (+0.9% vs +2.0% in August) and housing (+5.2% vs +5.7% in August). Lastly, consumer prices rose 0.61% in September on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.68% rise in the prior month.

Economic activity slows in August Panama: Economic activity rose 7.4% in annual terms in August, following a 8.5% rise in the previous month. Commercial activity remained a key growth driver, supported by wholesale and retail trade and Colón Free Trade Zone re-exports. Financial intermediation, hospitality, manufacturing, agriculture, leisure services, and electricity and water also contributed positively. However, growth in Panama Canal toll revenues and shipping volumes slowed, as El Niño-related risks to water levels prompted authorities to reduce booking capacity and tighten draft restrictions in August. Meanwhile, construction activity declined amid fewer building permits and weaker cement and concrete output, while export-oriented fishing also lost ground. On a month-on-month basis, economic activity declined 1.8% in August, following 1.4% growth in the prior month.

Merchandise trade returns to a surplus in August Mexico: In September, the trade balance was USD -0.6 billion, following a USD +0.6 billion reading in the previous month. Over the last 12 months, the trade balance summed to USD +12.9 billion. Merchandise exports were up 37.9% in year-on-year terms in September, coming on the back of a 40.4% increase in the previous month. As in recent months, September’s reading was driven largely by higher mining and non-vehicle manufactured exports—particularly to the U.S. Merchandise imports increased 33.1% in year-on-year terms in September, coming on the back of a 34.2% rise in the previous month and driven by notably higher imports of fuel and non-fuel goods.

Economic activity slows in August Guatemala: Economic activity was up 3.9% in annual terms in August, following a 4.2% increase in the prior month. August's reading was the weakest since January 2026. According to the Bank of Guatemala (Banguat), growth was primarily driven by increases in trade and vehicle repair; manufacturing; real estate activities; information and communications; and financial and insurance activities.

Inflation picks up in September from August Guatemala: Consumer prices were up 4.7% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 3.4% increase in the prior month. September's reading was the strongest since October 2023. Relative to the previous month's data, there were higher price pressures for food and alcoholic beverages (+5.6% in annual terms vs +3.0% in August) and housing, electricity, water and fuels (+3.3% vs +2.8% in August). Finally, the variation in clothing and footwear prices was the same as in the prior month (+0.6% in September and August). Finally, consumer prices were up 1.18% in September in month-on-month terms, following a 0.60% increase in the previous month.

Inflation picks up in September from August Mexico: Consumer prices were up 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in September, following a 3.3% rise in the prior month and within the Central Bank’s 2.0%–4.0% target range. Relative to the previous month's figures, there were higher price pressures for food, beverages and tobacco (+3.2% in annual terms vs +2.4% in August), housing (+3.2% vs +3.0% in August) and clothing, footwear and accessories (+2.6% vs +2.3% in August). In contrast, price pressures reduced for education and recreation in September (+2.5% vs +3.1% in August). Finally, the variation in transportation prices was the same as in the prior month (+3.5% in September and August). Meanwhile, core consumer prices rose 3.7% in annual terms in September, following a 3.9% increase in the previous month. Finally, consumer prices were up 0.42% in September on a month-on-month basis, following a 0.20% increase in the previous month.