Researching energy and defence. Physics and data science background. Happy getting into the weeds.

Sydney, New South Wales
Joined March 2025
This is the story of how a fund chaired by former Labor PM Julia Gillard acquired a wind farm project just six days before Labor Energy Minister Chris Bowen underwrote its future revenues with taxpayer money. Today we've learned Julia's fund is trying to flip it. For a profit. HMC Capital's 'Energy Transition Fund' rushed to acquire the Neoen Victoria portfolio. They hadn't even raised any money in their fund. They closed with almost a billion dollars worth of borrowed money and IOU's. Less than a week later, Chris Bowen announced Kentbruck Wind Farm to be successful in the first round of the Capacity Investment Scheme. My rough calculations suggest they will receive something like a billion dollars from taxpayers (and maybe much more) over 15 years. Sweet deal. A billion dollars of fancy financial monopoly money one week. A billion dollars of promised taxpayer dollars the next. I want to emphasise that I have no evidence of anything illegal or improper taking place. Rather, I want to point out how odious and repugnant the official, proper, legal business of renewable energy has become. Yesterday Chris Bowen announced he wanted to supersize the CIS subsidy scheme, yet again. Today Ross Garnaut seemed to cheer this on, whilst pointing out "There are now virtually no new investment commitments for solar and wind generation that do not have CIS or other Government underwriting," What happened to a sense of propriety? Since when do we celebrate people rushing to put their snouts in the trough? Or rushing to fill the trough even higher? Unlike the UK who publish a 'going rate' for technology subsidies, our renewables are subsidised through a secret tender process. Every project gets to ask for whatever revenue they want to proceed. @AEMO_Energy facilitates a secret beauty pageant, where they award points for things like indigenous participation or community engagement, alongside financial value. And Chris Bowen makes the final call. The bids remain secret. There's no cap to the pay-outs. Since AEMO is a private company, there is no scope for an FOI request, and AEMO aren't not subject to parliamentary oversight through Senate Estimates. So no-one can ever prove an allegation that Bowen has bestowed special favour on a friend's project if that was what he did. But equally, he can never prove that he selected strictly according to merit. We are just expected to trust the black-box of Bowen's subsidies. So I'm going to say out loud, with full voice, that I hope everyone can agree on: If this is what the future of 'clean energy' looks like in Australia, it looks absolutely FILTHY. Any firm that talks about ESG seriously should start taking the "G" a bit more seriously and steer clear of projects that thrust their snouts into Bowen's hopelessly opaque, bottomless trough of government funds. Or at the very least, purge their boards and senior leadership of all the former Labor staffers, donors, and industry lobbyists who have had a hand in designing the trough, and filling it up. The reality is that there are no natural profits to be made in generating renewable electricity in Australia. Every dollar of profit in this industry is really a cheque signed by a politician, with Chris Bowen signing all the biggest cheques, worth untold billions, in the next three years. It's all legal. It's all official. And it's absolutely obscene. Mega-thread below. (It'll come in stages) 1/
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What's wrong with this picture? Is it the role of a local council... to fund a University... to teach 10 year old children... in primary schools... to become Climate Warriors...? That has to be a microcosm of progressive group-think. cdu.edu.au/news/cdu-educates…
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"Students will learn which actions serve an ecosystem's health, and which actions achieve the opposite at an individual and societal levels". There's so much wrong with that sentence, starting with grammar ("an" is singlar, "levels" plural). But at 10 or 11 years old? This can only be indoctrination. Kids at this age should be learning foundational skills; the priority is English and maths. The impact of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide is quite positive for many ecosystem's health, negative for others. Same with temperature... it's complex. To engage with that at all seriously can only be done late in high school. What they're proposing will be a lesson on what to think, not how to think. And also, which ecosystems exactly? Why are ecosystems' health the only metric? Do they get a corresponding lesson on which individual and societal actions serve an economy's health, or the health of society, and which the opposite? I have thoughts on the proper allocation of local government resources, the proper focus of tertiary educational institutions... the prioritisation of class time in Primary Schools... Serious societal impacts there that should be weighed against the claimed ecological ones.
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The unlimited secrecy excuse for renewable energy costs is wearing thin with voters. Everyone can agree that more transparency is good. Very interesting poll results, indicating support for coal and gas picking back up again. theaustralian.com.au/nation/…
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Somewhere deep in the bowels of Treasury there are some grey-beards with their heads in their hands. They joined an institution that was regarded as world-class for its analysis. Now it's producing nonsense propaganda. Renewable energy is... putting downward pressure on bills? supporting energy entensive industries? making us a renewable energy superpower? 1/
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Our fossil-fuel exports "will likely plateau". Right. They haven't yet. This isn't even a continuation of trends claim, it's a claim a new trend will start. And still, renewable energy exports like green ammonia, steel etc... (oh dear, where's all they hydrogen?) 3/
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In contrast to the nonsense on the cost of electricity from the wind and the sun, a surprising dose of honesty appears in the climate impacts section. 1% change in GDP... by 2066?! With the extreme 3 degree scenario vs zero warming! Let's take our chances on getting some real growth! We could be ahead in just a couple years of Keating-Howard era growth. Likewise, the disaster impacts are small. This is just not worth hobbling the economy for! 4/4
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Even the official Intergenerational Report, written by Treasury, under a Labor government, gets the 45% penetration of renewables correct. Why is it ok for @australian to get it wrong, just two days later, and report 50%? Still no correction forthcoming.
We haven't "surged past 50%". We've crept past 45%. Over last three years, we've added just 2.7% per year. At current rates, we won't hit 50% for nearly two years, possibly after the next federal election. So I can't let this slide. One of my jobs as an energy researcher is battling misinformation, which distorts public debate, and presenting true facts in context. See below my letter to the dedicated energy reporter at @australian, Colin Packham, asking for this '50%' howler to be corrected. Sadly Colin has already indicated to me he's to busy to update today, and that he was actually aware that his 50% number was the peak of a seasonal, fluctuating quarterly number, not a sustainable annual average. So please share and comment widely enough to make sure those in charge of our major newspapers realise that this kind of misinformation is unacceptable, and needs to be called out. Dear Colin, I'd like to request a correction to factually inaccurate and misleading headlines and content in today's Australian in the "Energy Nation" feature: "Renewables push past 50pc but next phase proves harder" "Renewables surge past 50pc but the next phase proving harder" As well as further incorrect claims in your article: "Renewable energy has breached 50% of electricity generation in the national market, a significant advance on a year ago and a major step towards Labor's target of 82%" "Australia's 50 per cent renewable milestone therefore comes at an awkward moment." This claim is misleading, and factually unsubstantiated.  If this was a claim made by any person of public note at Energy Nation Forum, please let me know, and I will pursue a correction and acknowledgement of the mistake from whichever organisation that person belongs to.  But if it is your own (as I can find no attribution in your writing, so I assume that it is) I would kindly request a correction published in The Australian, proportionate to the prominence afforded to this article associated headlines. The source of your confusion might possibly be from headlines published by AEMO claiming more than half was generated from renewables in a single quarter (Q4 2025), which I link below.  The highest quarterly number that can be attributed to an authoritative source is 50.1%, see page 22 of the Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, also linked. However, if you inspect other such quarterly reports prior to or after that one, you'll realise that this is an outlier due to seasonal fluctuation. The 4th Quarter consistently achieves some of the highest renewable share, and a 50% share has never been sustained over 12 months.  A convenient means of viewing these statistics, derived from AEMO data, is to use the tracking tool in the OpenElectricity.org.au website, where you'll find that the quarters prior to and since that single quarter range from the high 30s (eg Q2 2025 at 37.4%) through to the high 40s (eg Q1 2026 at 46.1%). Given the very large seasonal fluctuation that is expected between quarters, the proper basis for assessing milestones for renewable energy penetration must include 12 sequential months.  Assessed again using OpenElectricity, this could be the last calendar year at 43%, the last financial year at 44.9%, or the last 365 days up to 23rd of September, at 45.3%.  But to claim "renewables surge past 50%", and make direct reference to this as progress towards government targets like 82% which must be assessed on an annual basis, it is a fundamental and serious misrepresentation of the facts.  Your article and headlines claims a rate of progress that has no basis in reality. Since FY 2023, when the renewable share was 36.8% to the close of FY 2026 when we had 44.9%, renewable share has grown by just 2.7% on average per year. Therefore, it is most likely that at the current rate of progress, the 50% milestone which your article claims has been achieved will still not be achieved at the time of the next federal election campaign. For major media outlets with prominent standing in the energy debate to establish in the public mind that such a milestone is already behind us is a serious disservice to debate. I therefore request an immediate and clear correction to the articles and headlines in proportion to the prominence given. Please find links to sources below: explore.openelectricity.org.… aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-r… aemo.com.au/-/media/files/ma… Sincerely, Aidan Morrison theaustralian.com.au/special…
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Aidan Morrison retweeted
Taiwan is returning to nuclear! Hard to overstate how big this is. Taiwan was the Germany of the Pacific, just more blockadable. Saving its nuclear was a major campaign for the old Environmental Progress crew starting back in 2017, working with brave local leaders Germany next
☢️ HUGE NUCLEAR POWER REVERSAL ☢️ Taiwan approved a preliminary plan to restart an idled atomic power plant, marking a reversal of the ruling party’s anti-nuclear stance. It closed its last reactor last year The earliest the plant may resume is 2028 bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The most important imperative for Australia is to…. Tame inflation? Get real wages growing? Make housing affordable? Bring down energy prices? Control government spending? Secure fuel supplies? Oh no… silly me. “get rid of diesel”
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We haven't "surged past 50%". We've crept past 45%. Over last three years, we've added just 2.7% per year. At current rates, we won't hit 50% for nearly two years, possibly after the next federal election. So I can't let this slide. One of my jobs as an energy researcher is battling misinformation, which distorts public debate, and presenting true facts in context. See below my letter to the dedicated energy reporter at @australian, Colin Packham, asking for this '50%' howler to be corrected. Sadly Colin has already indicated to me he's to busy to update today, and that he was actually aware that his 50% number was the peak of a seasonal, fluctuating quarterly number, not a sustainable annual average. So please share and comment widely enough to make sure those in charge of our major newspapers realise that this kind of misinformation is unacceptable, and needs to be called out. Dear Colin, I'd like to request a correction to factually inaccurate and misleading headlines and content in today's Australian in the "Energy Nation" feature: "Renewables push past 50pc but next phase proves harder" "Renewables surge past 50pc but the next phase proving harder" As well as further incorrect claims in your article: "Renewable energy has breached 50% of electricity generation in the national market, a significant advance on a year ago and a major step towards Labor's target of 82%" "Australia's 50 per cent renewable milestone therefore comes at an awkward moment." This claim is misleading, and factually unsubstantiated.  If this was a claim made by any person of public note at Energy Nation Forum, please let me know, and I will pursue a correction and acknowledgement of the mistake from whichever organisation that person belongs to.  But if it is your own (as I can find no attribution in your writing, so I assume that it is) I would kindly request a correction published in The Australian, proportionate to the prominence afforded to this article associated headlines. The source of your confusion might possibly be from headlines published by AEMO claiming more than half was generated from renewables in a single quarter (Q4 2025), which I link below.  The highest quarterly number that can be attributed to an authoritative source is 50.1%, see page 22 of the Quarterly Energy Dynamics report, also linked. However, if you inspect other such quarterly reports prior to or after that one, you'll realise that this is an outlier due to seasonal fluctuation. The 4th Quarter consistently achieves some of the highest renewable share, and a 50% share has never been sustained over 12 months.  A convenient means of viewing these statistics, derived from AEMO data, is to use the tracking tool in the OpenElectricity.org.au website, where you'll find that the quarters prior to and since that single quarter range from the high 30s (eg Q2 2025 at 37.4%) through to the high 40s (eg Q1 2026 at 46.1%). Given the very large seasonal fluctuation that is expected between quarters, the proper basis for assessing milestones for renewable energy penetration must include 12 sequential months.  Assessed again using OpenElectricity, this could be the last calendar year at 43%, the last financial year at 44.9%, or the last 365 days up to 23rd of September, at 45.3%.  But to claim "renewables surge past 50%", and make direct reference to this as progress towards government targets like 82% which must be assessed on an annual basis, it is a fundamental and serious misrepresentation of the facts.  Your article and headlines claims a rate of progress that has no basis in reality. Since FY 2023, when the renewable share was 36.8% to the close of FY 2026 when we had 44.9%, renewable share has grown by just 2.7% on average per year. Therefore, it is most likely that at the current rate of progress, the 50% milestone which your article claims has been achieved will still not be achieved at the time of the next federal election campaign. For major media outlets with prominent standing in the energy debate to establish in the public mind that such a milestone is already behind us is a serious disservice to debate. I therefore request an immediate and clear correction to the articles and headlines in proportion to the prominence given. Please find links to sources below: explore.openelectricity.org.… aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-r… aemo.com.au/-/media/files/ma… Sincerely, Aidan Morrison theaustralian.com.au/special…
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This is the most damning and outrageous draft-final change in the latest ISP. In the draft, just Stage 1, ie one 500KV line, modelled to New England. Ongoing analysis and stakeholder engagement needed "to ascertain whether the second stage will optimise benefits to consumers..." Crystal clear that AEMO knows full well that there are no projects likely to close in the REZ, and this will be a white-elephant, with terrible costs imposed on consumers with no chance of proportional benefit. So what happened with the analysis and stakeholder engagement? Well, one stakeholder trumped all others. The NSW government wrote and declared that they're doing both lines, in a single project, and asked for it to be treated as 'anticipated' which makes it a sunk-cost in the ISP, so AEMO would not do any further analysis on whether it makes economic sense for consumers. The sheer bloody-mindedness of this move is just breathtaking. There can be no pretense now that the ISP does anything at all to coordinate investment or protect consumers. A supremely arrogant government can just over-rule the community, and consumer interests, and the ISP just nods along, puts it all in the path called 'optimal'. 1/
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Here's Penny's letter. Interpreted: "damn the costs, damn the consumers, damn the communities, damn the consultation, I'm doing it anyway, bugger off AEMO stop putting your nose into it." She does this by attempting to tick boxes on planning, contracts, and authorisation, which conform with the "anticipated" status that means AEMO doesn't check the economics, optimal timing, size etc ever again. 2/
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🤩🤓 Can't describe the explosive nerd-out excitement at seeing this incredible family tree, of jets. I read a brilliant book a while back that covered the early lineage of the Rolls Royce family in exquisite detail. The process of developing jets is such an amazingly intense process of engineering; truly new jets are rare. I grasped immediately that the entire universe would be tractable and family-tree-like. So cool seeing it laid out like this.
I think this jet family tree is relatively complete.
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This. The intuitive assumption underlying broad popular support for superannuation - that otherwise we can’t afford the pension - is so, so badly wrong.
Superannuation saves a tiny amount of age pension costs. Tax breaks for super far outweigh any budget savings from lower pensions. If you argue we need super to help the budget to afford pensions then you are wrong. You should support scrapping super if that is your reasoning
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Aidan Morrison retweeted
What is the world's most overrated problem? It's easily climate change. You can trust the experts. Climate change is real and it's happening. But the experts also do estimates of the damage, and the vast majority come out to less than 10% of world GDP by 2100. That's not 10% poorer than today. It's 10% poorer than we otherwise would be. But if we increase GDP growth by less than 0.2 percentage points a year, it'll more than cover the likely effects of climate. Getting off fossil fuels also has costs, and there are OECD projections where doing so doesn't even pay for itself by 2100. Meanwhile, as temperatures go up, deaths from natural disasters have collapsed as increasing wealth allows people to better adjust to changing climate and weather. Climate hysteria needs to be understood in the larger context of Westerners being enamored by the idea that we are evil for sinning against Mother Earth, who will eventually take her revenge. This contradicts our history as a species, where growth and technology rather than restraint are what solve problems and increase human flourishing. richardhanania.com/p/climate…
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What a story.
Economist Milton Friedman once said, "Only a crisis - actual or perceived - produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions taken depend on the ideas lying around. Our basic function is to develop alternatives to existing policies and keep them alive and available until the politically impossible becomes the politically inevitable." This quote became @CanadiansEnergy guiding philosophy in our campaign to save the Pickering Nuclear Generating Station from early decommissioning. As energy demand forecasts skyrocketed, and now as Trump's trade war brings energy security, domestic manufacturing and Canadian strategic autonomy to the forefront, our work to develop alternatives to the policy of shutting down Pickering became the "ideas that were lying around." We are pleased that this government accepted our recommendations and made the right call to prioritize Ontario jobs and workers, clean air, and medical isotopes, and we look forward to the tremendous economic multiplier effect of this CANDU refurbishment during the challenging times of Trump's trade war on Canada. Our campaign, launched in 2020, was an uphill battle. Labour unions that supported refurbishing the plant appreciated our efforts but had given up. Not only were we the only organization fighting for this refurbishment at a time when nuclear power was struggling reputationally, but major bodies in the nuclear industry made several "interventions," asking us to call off our campaign. Bizarrely, they communicated to us that our efforts were harmful to the nuclear sector. Over and over, they told us the decision to shut down the plant was a "done deal" and that we were "kicking a dead horse." @CanadiansEnergy, however, receives no funding from said industry and had total freedom of action to continue our "Quixotic" quest. Our determination to struggle on, which included holding rallies with placards painted with my son's art supplies at Queen's Park and outside @OPG headquarters, and the 100s of hours of collective energy and expertise we poured into our highly influential "Save Pickering" policy report authored by the extraordinarily talented @dylanjmoon, was rooted in our unshakeable and pan-partisan values: Pro-worker, pro-clean air, pro-climate and pro-health. After all, the reactors at Pickering support 4500 direct and indirect jobs. They are a vital part of our nuclear backbone, which underpins Ontario's energy security and self-reliance. Its 2,200 MW baseload contribution was slated to be replaced by smog-producing natural gas generation, and the plant contributes 20% of the world's vital Cobalt-60 medical isotope, which is vital to maintaining the sterility of the medical supplies I use every day on shift in the Emergency Department. To us, that was worth fighting for. We faced several crises of confidence along the way, asking ourselves why we were pouring so much time into a seemingly hopeless campaign. No one played a greater role in keeping our spirits up and our efforts laser-focused on our goal than Canadians for Nuclear Energy co-founder @cadlam. I'll close with another quote from the opposite side of the political spectrum as Mr. Friedman, American Anthropologist Margaret Mead. “Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has." Long live Pickering!
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Aidan Morrison retweeted
They put too much solar on the grid, so it drives the value of the output to zero and the operators go bankrupt leaving €3bn of debt. Same would happen in Britain without generous subsidies.
Tyska soljätten Enerparc har ansökt om insolvens i Tyskland. Bolaget äger och driver mer än 500 solcellsanläggningar. Kvar står ett skuldberg på 33 miljarder kronor: affarsvarlden.se/kronika/tys…
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Why is this not surprising.
Despite batteries getting cheaper, the relevant department in WA has pivoted back to gas as the lowest-cost means of peaking capacity. The history of BRCP pricing in the chart below tells a story of ideological capture. Specifically, the mental gymnastics required to squeeze batteries in as the benchmark technology - which is supposed to be the cheapest option - while at the same time having to jack up prices by 113% over two years to make batteries viable. Only to realise 4hr or even 6hr batteries still need gas backup thereafter. So you may as well get rid of the battery and just use gas instead. Unfortunately for WA, we dumped $2bn worth of batteries into the grid over those two years, which will never pay for themselves. And the increase in gas costs from 2026 to 2029? That's mostly a function of increased turbine costs, as datacentres bid up the world's supply of generators in search for cheap, dispatchable energy.
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This is what achieving net-zero for a nation looks like in practice. Destroying domestic industries, exporting the emissions to another country who will produce the same thing instead. Net-zero change in emissions globally.
DEMAND DESTRUCTION: Ineos will idle three of its chemical plants in northern England due to high energy costs🇬🇧 ⚠️ “With gas prices now 12 times the level in the US and eight times that of China, we just cannot compete,” said Chairman Ratcliffe bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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