Greg

🚨 $NBIS: NEBIUS REPORTS Q3 EARNINGS. AFTER EVERYTHING THAT HAPPENED SINCE AUGUST, I'M EXPECTING SOME SERIOUS NUMBERS. Wall Street is expecting roughly $900M-$920M in Q3 revenue, compared with $582M in Q2. That's already more than 55% sequential growth expected. Nebius closed a $5.75B convertible notes offering in August, announced a $3.5B Citi financing facility in October and has more than $40B in long-term customer commitments supporting its financing strategy. It gives management substantial funding options, although the convertible debt also creates potential future dilution. Then look at the commercial side. - $MSFT's agreement of up to $19.4B - $META's five year agreement of up to $27B - $PLTR Palantir naming Nebius its preferred sovereign AI infrastructure partner. $CRWV says qualified AI compute demand is running at 10 times its available capacity through 2027, while pricing for new contracts has increased significantly. Nebius has already disclosed new infrastructure deals above $20M in annual contract value per MW, with some shorter-term capacity opportunities exceeding $40M per MW. So demand and pricing are looking favorable. Nebius previously guided to $7B–$9B in annualized revenue run rate by year-end 2026, approximately 40% adjusted EBITDA margin and $20B–$25B in annual capex. - Can Arkady Volozh maintain or raise those targets? - How much additional GPU capacity is generating revenue? - How much of the expansion can customer prepayments and existing financing cover? We should see whether Token Factory, live GPU spot pricing and the Palantir partnership are beginning to contribute beyond the large hyperscaler contracts. I expect strong revenue growth but I also expect substantial depreciation, financing expenses and continued infrastructure spending. A $900M revenue quarter would be impressive but stronger 2027 guidance, faster capacity deployment and better financing economics would be far more important. Nebius has spent the last three months announcing partnerships, financing and new products. Tomorrow we get to see how much of this progress is showing up in the numbers.