$1M+ AI Portfolio | Data Centers | Hyperscalers | Space | Robotics | Not Financial Advice
Joined June 2014
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WOW WHAT A HUGE SURPRISE $SKHY BEAT EXPECTATIONS?!
WHY WAS NO ONE TELLING US DEMAND IS THROUGH THE ROOF?
SK HYNIX $SKHY Q3’26 EARNINGS HIGHLIGHTS
🔹 Revenue: $78.9B (Est. $74.8B) 🟢; +328% YoY
🔹 Oper Profit: $62.8B (Est. $58.5B) 🟢; +632% YoY
🔹 Oper Margin: 80%; +3,300 bps YoY; record high
🔹 QoQ: Revenue +32% / Oper Profit +38%
Q4 Guide:
🔹 DRAM Bit Growth: Mid-20% QoQ
🔹 NAND Bit Growth: Mid-single% QoQ incl. Solidigm
Q3 Pricing & Volume:
🔹 DRAM ASP: High-20% QoQ; bits ~+10% QoQ
🔹 NAND ASP: Mid-20% QoQ; bits slightly lower QoQ
Profitability:
🔹 Gross Margin: 85.7% (Est. 85.2%) 🟢
🔹 EBITDA: $66.1B; 84% margin; +486% YoY
🔹 EPS: $41.07; +205% YoY
Financials:
🔹 Cash: $86.3B; +311% YoY
🔹 Interest-Bearing Debt: $11.9B; -34% YoY
🔹 Net Debt-to-Equity: -32%; -2,800 bps YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $41.3B; +281% YoY
🔹 Total Assets: $295.5B
2027 Market Outlook:
🔹 DRAM Demand Bit Growth: +mid-20% YoY
🔹 NAND Demand Bit Growth: +high-teens% YoY
🔹 2027 CapEx: To rise significantly vs 2026
🔸 Memory demand expected to outpace supply through 2030
Product & Technology:
🔹 HBM4: Expected to surpass HBM3E in HBM shipment and revenue share in Q4
🔹 2027 HBM: Negotiations finalized; profitability gap with conventional DRAM expected to narrow meaningfully
🔹 M15X: Ramp-up accelerating to full capacity by end-2026
🔹 321L NAND: Over 50% of domestic capacity in Q4
Business Highlights:
🔹 LTAs: Signed with 14 key customers incl. major global CSPs; standard 5-year term; over 50% of 2027-2028 capacity secured
🔹 Q3 Dividend: ~₩20,000/share (~$15.08), incl. a ₩10,000 special dividend from realized Kioxia gains
🔹 Share Acquisition: ₩20T (~$15.1B) for the quarter, incl. ~₩10T for executive & employee compensation
🔸 Quarterly revenue topped ₩100T for the first time
Note:
🔹 Net Profit: $30.0B; +216% YoY
🔸 Includes a $24.6B non-operating loss: a $17.3B investment-asset loss and an $8.8B FX loss as the won strengthened
FX used for USD conversion: $1 = ₩1,326 (mid-market; Oct 27, 2026)
Gains on Paper retweeted
🚨 $NBIS Update: Nebius raises another €250M for its Béthune Data Center 🇫🇷
Debt markets may be closed to neoclouds.
For the thousandth time, Nebius isn't a neocloud. It's an AI Cloud.
Don't be a headline guzzler. Do your homework.
💰 Nebius lève encore 250 millions d’euros pour son data center près de Lille, dévoile @thierrymestayer.
Le site que le géant néerlandais du cloud prévoit d’ouvrir fin 2026 sera l’un des plus puissants d’Europe.
l.linforme.com/ye2vfe3z
Gains on Paper retweeted
Good morning everyone, especially to $NBIS investors.
While the unprecedented FUD keeps ramping up on social media, Arkady is out there in the real world talking to people and looking for opportunities to make real deals.
And DAMAC Properties is the real deal. It’s one of Dubai’s most prominent real estate developers, with a multibillion-dollar business behind it.
Gains on Paper retweeted
🚨JUST IN: Chamath on neoclouds
"Some are definitely better than others."
In September, $IREN & $NBIS were named by Chamath as the expected top winners in the era of open source models.
As someone with a portfolio of energized land assets here is what I am seeing:
1. Neoclouds are disorganized and poorly capitalized. Some are definitely better than others however.
2. Hyperscalers are intractable, bureaucratic organizations that take 3 months to do an NDA and want 18mo escrow periods. We built our portfolio by competing against these terms because of our speed and simplicity. The more future assets orgs like ours win, the bigger the problem for the hyperscalers downstream (see 3).
3. There are delays in the existing pipeline that will catch people off guard in 2027. Hyperacalers will (obviously) react by focusing on their own internal compute needs over any third party. If the third party is a model company, they will tell them to go through their model router where they will also take a non-trivial vig. Them telling Ant they have no compute for them (rumored in Ant’s S-1) if true is a huge tell that this is already happening.
All of this is to say that it does look like there will be a lot of partially stranded compute and compute sitting in inventory in 2027 than is currently forecasted. This is bought and paid for but effectively underearning (below total cost of capital) or collecting dust. We see this as true for everyone - model companies, hyperscalers, neoclouds except ONE (you can guess which one).
This dislocation will benefit two kinds of orgs: the non-bureaucratic big scalers who can build industrial scale quickly and the nimble, well capitalized players feeding them.
2027 will be a turbulent year because it will clear out a bunch of wrong/bad bets. It will also be a consolidation year for a few.
That is why I own $NBIS. Arkady Volozh built Yandex, still owns roughly 11% of Nebius, and has led the company through sanctions and a full rebuild to over $40B of contracted revenue from customers like Microsoft and Meta.
Around him is a team with deep hyperscale and enterprise experience, just to name a few: CFO Dado Alonso came from finance roles at Amazon, Booking.com and Naspers, CRO Marc Boroditsky from Oracle, Twilio and Cloudflare, and Americas GM Dan Lawrence from AWS and Akamai.
That depth of experience and alignment is the quality worth owning when the weak operators get washed out.
Pretty much.
As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.
SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.
That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.
You don't need to be the smartest investor in the room.
You just need to know who to listen to. @SMASIMHO is one of them.
$NBIS
Somehow quite a few of you decided to follow me recently, so I figured it's time I shared a little more about myself.
How did I get so blackpilled that I decided to full port $NBIS? What drove me to that decision? Why am I on X?
Here's the insider scoop.
Down the price of a house this week.
It stings. The thesis hasn't changed.
Volatility is the cost of conviction. Holding individual names like $NBIS takes a tolerance for pain most people don't have, and that's fine. It's just not for everyone.
Consider this your bottom signal.
I have a lump sum of cash about 2 weeks away and I’m nervous it will come in after $NBIS goes back up. It’s always the way.
Marc Boroditsky, Nebius $NBIS CRO, discussing the move to live GPU spot pricing and the positive feedback they’re already receiving from customers.
The transparency is driving business. Customers want clear, real-time pricing and the flexibility to access compute when they need it.
This is about more than pricing. It’s about reducing friction for customers, building trust and making it easier to do business with Nebius as demand for AI compute continues to accelerate.
“Token maxing is out, we are in the age of value maxing” - $NBIS CRO Marc Boroditsky
Gains on Paper retweeted
$NBIS: TD Synnex and Nebius are now expanding Across Europe 🔥🔥
Just in time for GTC Berlin tomorrow 😉
"The agreement provides partners across TD SYNNEX's European footprint with access to Nebius AI Cloud, a purpose-built AI platform powered by NVIDIA accelerated computing technologies for AI training and inference workloads. Through a flexible consumption model, partners can rapidly provision enterprise-grade AI infrastructure and gain access to NVIDIA GPU capacity without the significant upfront investment, procurement challenges and operational complexity traditionally associated with deploying high-performance AI environments."
Huge shoutout to @AIMoneyTroels for calling this out
🤖 Made with AI
AI NAMES ARE PUMPING AFTER $SPCX EARNINGS AND WE HAVEN'T EVEN STARTED ON THE TECH AND CHIP PLAYERS YET.
YOU KNOW WHAT THIS MEANS
$NBIS Independence, Missouri site. Months after groundbreaking, weather delays, and the team is still running ahead.
You can't fake this kind of execution. Nebius management builds the right teams.
A fresh look at $NBIS' data center under construction in Independence, Missouri. 👀
Photo shared today by Dan Lawrence, SVP and GM of Americas at Nebius.
