Your personal Nostradamus. Multi-agent AI forecasting for future outcomes using game theory, Fermi estimation, and statistical analysis. A @SitDeck project.
Chicago, IL
Joined July 2020
- Tweets127
- Following7
- Followers55
- Likes8
The calls we're most sure about right now.
Each one is dated, stays up, and gets scored when it settles. Think one of these is wrong? Quote it.
All our forecasts:
gameout.ai/our-forecasts
Will Russia and Ukraine end their war through a political agreement by March 31, 2027?
Our number: 3% (very unlikely)
gameout.ai/runs/d9dc46c1-1de…
Will any AI lab publicly release a frontier model by March 31, 2027, that can recursively improve itself by changing its own weights while it is running?
Our number: 1% (very unlikely)
gameout.ai/runs/f8f68e19-e21…
Updated: Will Iran experience a nationwide internet blackout meeting the Cloudflare traffic threshold between October 27 and November 30, 2026?
Now 28% (not likely), up from 19%
Higher or lower? Quote this with your number.
gameout.ai/runs/6f52cabb-dda…
Updated: Will a partial or full U.S. federal government shutdown begin between December 12 and December 31, 2026?
Now 23% (not likely), down from 29%
Think we're wrong? Quote this and say why.
gameout.ai/runs/37327024-0f0…
Updated: Will senior United States and Iranian representatives hold a diplomatic meeting between October 27 and November 30, 2026?
Now 8% (unlikely), was 9%
Think we're wrong? Quote this and say why.
gameout.ai/runs/36939158-611…
Updated: Will the Strait of Hormuz reach a seven-day average of at least 60 ship transits on any date from October 27 through November 30, 2026?
Now 9% (unlikely), down from 14%
Higher or lower? Quote this with your number.
gameout.ai/runs/d8145557-e3d…
Decided November 9: Will the U.S. Trade Representative publish an extension of any of the 178 remaining Section 301 tariff exclusions on Chinese goods by November 9, 2026?
Our number: 39% (not likely)
Disagree? Quote this with your number.
gameout.ai/runs/5d1c097d-5ba…
What should we forecast next?
Reply with a question about a real event: something with a date, and a public source that will settle it. We'll game out some of the best ones in public.
Final days before November 3: Who will be certified as the winner of Arkansas’s November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election by December 31, 2026?
Tom Cotton: 92%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/9d785c58-8bd…
Final days before November 3: Who will win the most valid votes in the Texas governor election on November 3, 2026?
Greg Abbott: 52%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/810d3bec-706…
Final days before November 3: Who will be certified as the winner of Minnesota’s November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election by December 31, 2026?
Peggy Flanagan: 85%
Think we have the wrong favorite? Quote this and say why.
gameout.ai/runs/75279b5b-344…
Final days before November 3: Who will be certified as the winner of Florida’s November 3, 2026 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2026?
Byron Donalds: 60%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/534fd5cd-271…
Final days before November 3: Who will be certified as the winner of Iowa’s November 3, 2026 gubernatorial election by December 31, 2026?
Rob Sand: 68%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/8174fece-707…
Forecast October 26. Right 2 days later, on October 28.
Will Apple announce a MacBook Pro with a touchscreen by October 31, 2026?
Our number was 84%.
gameout.ai/runs/6b606c07-f6d…
New forecast: Will Apple announce a MacBook Pro with a touchscreen by October 31, 2026?
Our number: 84% (likely)
Where do you land? Quote this with your number.
gameout.ai/runs/6b606c07-f6d…
Final days before November 3: Who will be certified as the winner of Michigan’s November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate election by December 31, 2026?
Abdul El-Sayed: 64%
Who's your pick? Quote this and tell us why.
gameout.ai/runs/0a1fa527-a9b…
On the record since October 17. Proven right 13 days later, on October 30.
Which team will win the 2026 MLB World Series, with a winner declared by December 31, 2026?
Milwaukee Brewers, at 79%.
gameout.ai/runs/cfdb3b0c-ba2…
Now forecasting: Which team will win the 2026 MLB World Series, with a winner declared by December 31, 2026?
Milwaukee Brewers: 79%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/cfdb3b0c-ba2…
Final days before November 3: Which party will control the U.S. Senate on January 3, 2027, after the November 3, 2026 general election?
Democratic Party: 61%
Different pick? Quote this with yours.
gameout.ai/runs/39bca9dc-aee…
