Moran Tice Cap Mgmt LLC - RIA - Precious Metals Equities. Tweets are not investment advice: do your own due diligence. 41 years of macroeconomic investing.
Highlands, NC
Joined March 2016
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1000 PHD's in economics went to Jackson Hole to figure out how to fix the world economy; yet, not one pointed out the historical fact that the USA grew twice as fast under a Gold standard when 0 PHD's in economics set interest rates and instead free market capitalism set rates!
Treasury reports 1st fiscal month of 2027 budget deficit of $404B up $120B, YOY. Outlays were twice receipts. Employment and retirement receipts were $127B up $4B, YOY; Social Security and Medicare expenses were $410B up $38B, YOY.
Meanwhile, CTAs continue to trade Gold futures off of interest rate expectations; not sure the Fed can solve the popping of Social Security ponzi scheme with higher interest rates.
I just received a 17% increase in health insurance to over $1900 a month; I have had no medical expenses besides physicals for years. Will the Fed raising rates by 50 bp in December get the insurance companies to lower my premiums?
This is why purchasing power parity is a better economic indicator than GDP. The US government claims this is economic growth, not inflation. Yet, labor intensive US companies cannot compete in global markets with out of control government induced real inflation.
Garic Moran retweeted
Gold Stocks vs. the Nasdaq are consolidating within a 13-year base.
The 2025 surge hit resistance and corrected sharply. Now the ratio is turning up from a potential higher low.
2027–2028 could bring accelerating gold-stock outperformance as capital rotates out of tech.
Garic Moran retweeted
An explanation for most of the $100 drop in gold today:
Fed governor Waller commented on rate hikes early this morning in London (including opening up the possibility of a half point rate hike), followed by a "hot" CPI report, causing computers to SELL! I mentioned the CPI angle to my wife and she said she was confused. "Why would a hot CPI report cause gold to drop - isn't inflation a driver for gold?" My answer: "You don't understand how the computer models work. And really, neither do I. It is nonsensical." Then, I explained to her that higher inflation = higher fed funds rates - which is supposedly "bad" for gold. Unless the Fed is behind the curve - which it almost always is - but the computers don't know that.
barchart.com/story/news/8760…
Garic Moran retweeted
Midterms will mark the end of Trump era (beginning of it). Crisis of the West looming as it will be near impossible to restore global US leadership. Tail risks rising due to social fractures in the US, failure of EU migration project, and an effective defeat in Ukraine/Iran.
Garic Moran retweeted
After this election, even before they’re sworn-in, newly minted politicians will go behind closed doors in the swamp to pick the majority leader, minority leader, whips, etc., and to nominate a Speaker.
They’ll vote for candidates who promise campaign cash, good times, good committee assignments, and subcommittee gavels. When it’s all said and done, your Representatives will also pledge their congressional voting cards to the leaders of RED team and BLUE team, who are secretly playing on the same team.
That’s how your election will get stolen. I compare these Representatives to Jack who traded the family cow for magic beans… but in this version of the story, the beans never sprout and lobbyists eat the beef.
Shorting Gold down 30% in a bull market does not seem like a good idea:
Nor investment advice; do your own due diligence.
Gold gave up half of its outperformance vs the S&P 500 since the current Gulf War began; we did not see that coming. Yet, Gold has still outperformed the S&P 500 this decade and this century.
Central Banks continue to buy record amounts of physical Gold as well as repatriate their Gold to their own countries.
While central banks continue to buy and repatriate physical Gold, which is now the largest financial asset on their balance sheets. Western institutional investors continue to be massively underweight from what their optimal allocation would suggest!
@tacticaltrading @IGWTreport
Part of what we did not like regarding the Argonaut purchase was Argonauts massive hedge @$1820 AU; the risk in these hedges were simply not dissiminated by management in their presentations.
Their hedges are down to 17k ounces and we no longer consider them a liability and have returned $AGI to our unheged universe...
So where are we now on $AGI?
Mining is tough; Young Davidson seismic event may or may not be management fault. Island Gold mine poised to be a monster, but delayed again. PDA delayed. Lynn Lake under construction.
By mid 2027, $AGI looks like a must own stock. Two years of underperformance was our forecast as we repeatedly said it looks like a 2028 story, in 2024-2025. We are now buyers on weakness.
$GDXJ does no fundamental analysis; if they did $AGI would not be their largest holding.
Past outperformance of this sector does not guarantee future outperformance of thi sector.
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