Markets, Economics, Politics Personal Views. Not Investment Advice.
Joined December 2011
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It’s starting…
Binance is the largest crypto exchange in the world. I thought we had more time, but I was wrong. This is only going to accelerate.
Nothing online is safe from AI.
As I’ve said, there’s only 2 options…
Either this is the biggest midterm landslide of the 21st century, or the final nail in the coffin for the mainstream polling industry.
US Q3 GDP:
+3.4% vs 3.2% exp.
Fastest pace of growth in a year.
Household spending extremely strong.
You’re bearish? Stan Druckenmiller is bringing Hyperliquid to the US and you’re bearish?
Holy. Shit.
The NYT is reporting that despite their denials, Mary Peltola's staff and Democratic operatives flew all over Alaska in secret to find and recruit a man named Dan Sullivan.
They put him on the ballot to purposefully steal votes from Republican Dan Sullivan.
Collin County early in-person margin so far by voters primary participation…
🔴R +5.6
Paxton will want this margin bigger to offset how "no primary" voters break.
Spot to watch in Texas is Collin county…
Collin (vs. TX result):
🔴2016: Trump +17 (R+7.4)
🔴2018: Cruz +6 (R+3.6)
🔴2020: Trump +4 (D +1.2)
🔴2022: Abott +10 (D +0.9)
🔴2024: Trump +11 (D +2.6)
It’s been trending bluer, but if Democrats want to actually have the night in Texas they’ve been dreaming of for 30 years, Talarico will need to finally flip Collin, or get a rough tie at worst.
Early vote (IPEV + mail) as % of final:
83%, 81%, 93%, 73%, 85%, respectively.
For all 5 years, their final election margin was within 1 pt of the early vote margin.
Mail is only ~5% of total EV in Collin, so even when massively lopsided toward Democrats (D+21 in 2024), it only moves the EV margin by 1-2 pts.
The result…
If the IPEV (in-person early vote) in Collin County goes to Paxton by even just a few points, he wins Texas. If it’s tied or goes to Talarico, Democrats are flipping it blue.
5+ million early votes in Texas…
Republican primary voters are barely outnumbering Democratic voters in the IPEV.
🔴R +0.4
Past IPEV margins:
🔴2024: R +8
🔴2022: R +10
🔴2020: R +7
"Struggling with voters 18–29 is one thing; they’re a relatively small share of the electorate. But Republican turnout among everyone 44 and younger has been almost nonexistent so far…" - @ZacharyDonnini
