Forensic equity & credit research. Pinpointing catalysts for hidden value accretion and multiple expansion the Street doesn't see Independent. Not advice.
Joined August 2021
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1/ $BAK update. Per Reuters (unnamed sources), Braskem and creditors want a deal by Wed 11/11, now a ~$4B recap. Petrobras cut its cash from $1.7B to $1.4B, and bondholders rejected a $3.8B debt-for-equity swap. Miss 11/22 and it's judicial recovery.
6/ What would make me look at the ADR: a filed plan that leaves old holders a real stake (30%+), ADR holders able to buy the rights at the deal price, or a strategic putting new money in at or above market. None of that is on the table today.
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7/ $BAK The trade I'm actually waiting for comes later. Once creditors get their new shares (likely 2027), many will sell. Forced selling into a petchem trough could be the entry. Until then the ADR prices in more than any plan leaves it. Dates: 11/11, Q3 call 11/13, 11/22.
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6/ Why I'm not long either: trust. A PR oversight board director testified in 2025 that NFE halted deliveries as an "intimidating threat." This fall the regulator said its orders never caused what NFE blamed for holding a cargo back. The deciding numbers come from the same team.
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Added more $QVCG this morning. I suspect the seller is Silver Point working off the rest of the stock it got for its QVC debt in the bankruptcy. It's down to 4,949,038 shares and fell under 10% on 10/9, so it no longer has to report its sales. nitter.cf/GeneralistJeff/status/…
1/ $QVCG is QVC and HSN, out of Chapter 11 since August. The stock went from $14.46 on Oct 2 to $9.75 today. I spent the day in the court record and the filings, and I think this is a seller-driven slide in a stock whose owners and paper value say something different. The story:
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Two things I'm aware of. Silver Point's shares alone leave GoldenTree ~1.1M short of a 3rd seat. And more control isn't automatically good for small holders: GoldenTree and SVP (13,121,773 sh) already own 51.6% together, which makes a low-priced take-private easier.
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