Commodities Investor. Very Long Oil and Coal. 60% Commodities, 20% Special Sits and 20% Short Garbage. *Not Investment Advice* Now kind of a Bitcoin douche!
SW Florida
Joined April 2022
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Have said this downturn (or whatever you want to call it) will essentially be a 'white collar recession'.
To date, layoffs have been almost entirely in WC workforce which is UNIQUE in 🇺🇸 History.
All previous slowdowns/recessions have started in BC workforce & bled into WC.
Are you too expensive?
Are you too human?
👇
I used to say:
Don’t worry about ageism. (so many posts and videos on this) I helped 55+ land great jobs all the time.
I don’t say that anymore.
The last 18 months have been brutal. People with 15–25 years at one company? CUT.
I'll call it for what it is:
• They make too much
• They’re not AI-native
• They lead people... now replaced by dashboards
That’s the new layoff filter.
The stats are just as brutal:
- Avg job hunt at 55+? 26 weeks
- Avg pay cut? 11%
- Many never recover... forced into part-time “retirement”
HR’s seriously broken.
Recruiting? Mostly useless.
I’ve seen the best people erased like they never mattered.
If you’re not scared yet, you’re not paying attention.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
The Fed has more than 98% odds of hiking rates in Dec 2026.
If they do that, it will be the first time in U.S. history the Fed has started a rate-hiking cycle during a housing recession.
Currently, relative home sales are just 4.3% of the homeowner stock.
The worst rate in U.S. history over a four-year span.
In previous housing demand collapses (like 1982 and 2008), the Fed actively cut rates.
Now, they're preparing to raise rates, and they could do a double rate hike.
Into the worst housing demand environment on record.
Supply is now back to normal nationally, and surging in half the country. And yet people still aren't buying, with demand dropping to record lows.
This suggests that something is going on in the background of U.S. economy that is not good.
And that the Fed should be careful with its rate hikes.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
*FAA SAYS ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
FAA: INBOUND INTERNATIONAL FLIGHTS WILL BE MANAGED ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS
FAA: ALL DEPARTING TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
ATTENTION ALL AIRCRAFT OPERATORS, BY ORDER OF THE FEDERAL AVIATION COMMAND CENTER ALL AIRPORTS ARE GROUND STOPPED. ALL DEPARTING
TRAFFIC SHOULD REMAIN GROUND STOPPED UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
The petrol situation in Russia is becoming very serious. Counting the strikes on Omsk and Volgograd on 11 and 12 November respectively, the facilities that have come under attack account for ~55% of total Russian petrol and diesel output and of domestic market supplies. 🧵 1/16
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
ERIC BOLLING: Howard Lutnick handed Cantor Fitzgerald over to his two sons, who increased their stake in Intel by 2,000% the same day Trump announced a federal investment in the company.
They also shorted 30-year Treasuries right before Liberation Day.
This is self-dealing, and it's filthy.
@ericbolling
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
This guy spent most of 2021-2022 as an inflation denier, "transitory" - now he's a hawk, interesting.
Chicago Fed President @Austan_Goolsbee on inflation: "Lately we're not making any progress, and if anything, it's going the wrong way." cnb.cx/3UAVVb3
Could be a forced cover from someone getting blown out on their long book.
But IF something is up, I will have the most prolonged GUTTURAL cry since Nancy Kerrigan in '94.
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Commodities MacGruber retweeted
ICE enforcement in San Antonio is crashing apartment rents.
Apartment rents are falling and delinquency is rising dramatically in most of SA metro.
According to CoStar the San Antonio market is ranked dead last in the Country for vacancy. Parts up SA are 16% delinquent.
Bros, does noone remember 'The Putin price hike'?
Do we not remember the language lingering in all the statements for a considerable amount of time.
Are we seeing such language w/the 🍊 price hike?
Is there potentially some bias there?
The darkest part of all this is that the
Listening to the Fed Guvs + pundits drives me CRAZY particularly if they fail to provide a qualifier of 'The War' in their commentary.
My pithiest mental model for the 10-Yr:
- No war, sub four!
- Bye Jensen, sub three!
- AI trade DEAD, sub two!
The economy is propped up by
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Fantastic article you should bookmark for the weekend (you're busy, I get it)
Doesn't touch enough on White Collar peeps being the victims of most of the layoffs AND WILL NEVER FILE AN UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIM & THUS THE HISTORICAL DATA IS MEANINGLESS.
But a good article nonetheless.
Quality Over Quantity: The Missing Signal In Jobs Data That Explains The Vibecession zerohedge.com/economics/qual…
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Speaking of deeper inflation measurement problems, why not rely on actual real-time prices without hedonic, seasonal and countless other "spreadsheet" adjustments: it seems much of the underlying subjective human error or political bias is responsible for Fed policy errors
I agree that chained CPI is probably the best of the official statistics, for monetary policy as well. It keeps CPI’s conceptual superiority to PCE (no nonmarket prices, better observed weights by focusing on consumer outlays rather than producer sales, and doesn’t account for things households consume but don’t pay for and therefore for which they never observe prices; this last is problematic in eg healthcare, which because of unique market structure often contains prices that are ultimately determined by government or are otherwise uninformative with respect to supply-demand imbalances). And chaining fixes the weighting problem in CPI that biases it upward but which PCE does better and is the primary reason for preferring PCE. Overall, this is the best of both worlds.
This of course still does not address deeper inflation measurement problems. But it would be an improvement. @federalreserve inflation task force should examine its benefits.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
MacGruber can't stop, won't stop!
Shelter inflation is ~36% of CPI & ~40% of core CPI.
And it's assuredly calculated incorrectly.
Part of the reasons I trust NO DATA is I know exactly how it's collected
I'm a REVERSE Gell-Mann Amnesia Bro
Today's report surprised due to ↗️ shelter inflation (Wrong BTW)
See 👇 w/your best read into the collection flaws
None of this accounts for multiple FREE months of
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Commodities MacGruber retweeted
200,000 tech workers have lost their jobs this year.
No, that isn't a typo.
Meta. Google, Dell, Oracle and more...
And the AI money keeps pouring in...
I mean, when exactly does the "AI creates jobs" part start??
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Shocking fiscal collapse in the first month of 2026. Stunning numbers.
Starting at the top: Oct tax revenues dropped 8.8% YoY to $369BN. On an LTM basis, YoY growth was just 1.1% (down from 3.2% in Sept and 9.7% year ago). Every time LTM tax receipts have turned negative, the US already was or was about to enter a recession. At this rate, this will be November or December.
US Budget Deficit Explodes: Worst October On Record On Historic Surge In Defense Spending; 28% Of All Taxes Go To Pay Interest zerohedge.com/markets/us-bud…
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Almost every multifamily project being built in LA right now, outside of ADUs in really good neighborhoods, will be worth LESS the day it's finished than it cost to build.
Inertia is a hell of a thing to overcome.
Imagine spending 3–5 years planning and permitting a project, raising investor equity and securing construction financing.
All while the market is slowly dropping out from under you.
At that point, you've invested years of your life, millions of dollars, and made commitments to investors and lenders.
Even when you realize you're heading straight into a wall, it's almost impossible to stop.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
Was going to write about this last weekend:
- Last April after Liberation Day, the mArKeTs ↘️ 8-10% quickly. Rates also went ↘️ on a fear trade. 10-year got ↘️ ~3.9%.
- I screamed all weekend that if the US didn't throw the market a trade deal, you'd see people dump Treasuries
Absolutely incredible:
Minutes after the 10Y Note Yield rose to 4.43%, US officials said peace talks with Iran could come as soon as Thursday.
However, yields continue to hold as skepticism over peace talks has grown, with the 10Y Note Yield now at 4.40%.
Once again, we cannot afford the 10Y Yield nearing 5%.
Commodities MacGruber retweeted
This is probably cope from watching the greatest political crash out in 🇺🇸 History.
But this is so performative + stupid, in the same way he's been performative + stupid about getting rates ↘️ (via JP attacks).
Every 🍊👑 policy decision ended up spiking rates on the long-end