Founder Remloe Capital LLC. https://nitter.cf/t.co/e4PBLuRSWa Not a recommendation to buy or sell. Remloe Capital LLC may have positions in securities mentioned.
Twin Cities
Joined December 2011
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The order of the macro dominos is:
1) Physical funds erase discounts to NAV
2a) Spot moves up
2b) The curve bull spreads
3) LT contracting en masse
OG uranium Twitter knows this has been my take FOREVER.
This is the order of operations today as it always was.
#uranium
It's Massie's time
When we return next week, we’ll get 218 signatures for Epstein Files Transparency Act II, which guarantees a vote.
Survivors will be able to get their own records, State Attorneys General can prosecute crimes, and we can take the DOJ to court for keeping critical files hidden.⚖️
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The potential contagion from L/S blowing out is dispersion.
L/S getting nuked is the unlevered portion of this trade. If correlations start to get spicy, that is an extremely crowded trade and they're short GOBs of index vol.
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If I had one wish from the $CLMT call it's that they would clearly explain that they already have 2 months of Q4 base oil pricing locked in.
They did explain the flow through on the Q2 call, but it would be nice if they were very explicit for all the rubes in the back
💯
Where to begin. A plan promoted by the US administration that’s against the interests of US LNG exporters in the name of assisting a region that been consistently demonized by the same US administration. Hard to see this happening. @ColumbiaUEnergy
I don't know who originally put the thesis out there, but it's going to be hard for resources to do well without strong Chinese demand. And China probably doesnt have an interest in stimulating demand for resources amidst an energy crisis as it would stimulate demand for energy too.
Profits at major Chinese steelmakers tumbled 27.4% in the first three quarters of 2026 as the industry battles sluggish domestic demand, decade-low prices and mounting international trade pushback caixinglobal.com/2026-10-30/…
There's plenty of bear porn going around , but the most unnerving thing I see is how strong treasuries and SOFR are tradeling in the face of the oil curve repricing higher
10 yr rates vs CLZ2027. Rates topped out 5.5% ago vs Dec 27 crude.
Until proven otherwise I think the market is screaming at us that nominal growth has topped.
Sprinting towards AAPL more or less ex growth at 39x forward earnings for no other reason other than they didn't blow their brains out on AI capex is definitely a choice
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In Brazil, Congress is the adult in the room.
And I would also add the Central Bank of Brazil to the list of adults.
Imagine that, a sound Congress and central bank.
Would be weird if the Real became a flight to safety trade.
At Spectra FX today, we hosted a call with Maurício Moura, a Brazilian economist, pollster, and the founder and CEO of the research institute IDEIA Big Data. He's good. Here are Spectra's takeaways.
1: Flavio is 85/15 favourite. Lula has run a very good round 2 campaign and without that it would be 95/5. Polymarket is 75/25.
2: Lula needs to get a lot of votes from abstentions in the first round. However beyond that...
3: The market is looking at too big a differential between the outcome of either winner.
Lula won't be able to pass most of his fiscal stuff. However similarly despite controlling congress, Flavio also won't command much respect. The presidential position in Brazil is much weaker compared to Congress than it has become in the US.
The cold reality is that macro matters a lot more than politics--in fact the common knowledge has been exactly backwards. The currency (BRL) has outperformed under left-leaning government and underperformed when more right wingers come in. Probably a coincidence, not an indictment of the right.
As you zoom out and move away from election day--
Macro matters much more than local policy in Brazil. (e.g., China entering WTO, commodity supercycle bust, COVID, etc.)
Obviously this won't matter day one, flows will follow what they believe to be true, but when you zoom out--
This too shall pass.
Chart shows BRL total return, including carry (log).
Final note: Spectra has done a wild amount of USDBRL volume through this election. If you work at a hedge fund and trade FX options, you should be covered by Spectra FX! We are on Bloomberg. :]
#gittinsbrasil2026
@thegitt
Fed officials largely cited lack of energy inflation pass through as a reason to move slower on hikes.
Using latent inflation in the system as a reason not to hike is about as dovish as you can get and the risk is rising inflation expectations.
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT BEATS EXPECTATIONS, INFLATION FEARS RISE
October's final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 48.0 vs. 46.3 expected, but remained below September's 48.1.
🔸 Current conditions: 46.7 vs. 50.9 prior
🔸 Consumer expectations: 48.8 vs. 46.3 prior
🔸 1-year inflation outlook: 4.7% vs. 4.6% prior
🔸 5-year inflation outlook: 3.5% vs. 3.4% prior
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Do for a Qwen 4.0 release soon. Probably something China wants out ahead of any US frontier lab IPOs.
Bethany McLean back on the beat?
Trigger warning for those who can’t bear to hear anything negative about their idol! H/T @RealJimChanos
inc.com/bethany-mclean/space…
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